www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45324753
Interesting to see how this one pans out. The article suggests that whole future of motoring may will change - "Many analysts think personal car ownership will drop dramatically when the self-driving, ride-sharing future is fully upon us - with major companies instead purchasing enormous fleets of vehicles. Toyota, then, may have just secured its biggest ever customer."
Not sure I see it myself though friends in London haven't owned a car for years (as public transport does a good job). I think it will take a few years for us old dinosaurs to completely change our habits though!!
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Typical metro centric thinking, once you get beyond what the city dwellers consider to be civilisation you can forget it. The public transport infrastructure is not there. As for the remote areas many people have no idea where they are let alone how they would get around them. Have they tried getting around rural USA or Canada or anywhere else without a car?
Last edited by: Old Navy on Tue 28 Aug 18 at 08:15
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In case you haven’t noticed most of the worlds population does live in cities. The more advanced the economy the higher the percentage and the move towards city living continues apace. Around 90% of the U.K. population live in cities. The city is bound to shape the overall shape of transport in years to come as it does now..
Don’t worry, , nobody is going to take your petrol Jazz away from you. It’s just extremely inlikely that individual ownership of ICE cars is the future of transport being both wasteful and inneficient.
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Although I live in a small city and have free bus travel throughout Scotland I have no intention of giving up petrol power. I can think of areas of the UK where petrol fill ups have to be planned and battery power is a non starter and remember this is a tiny island. Think on a worldwide basis (if you can) and find out how viable battery power is.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Tue 28 Aug 18 at 12:43
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Realistically for many people on this forum such predictions on self driving cars and ride sharing rather than car ownership are largely irrelevant given that they will not see widespread use for at least 15-20 years, by which time very few of today's 60+ members will be 80+ and will mainly have given up driving.
Electric cars, on the other hand are not so far away for widespread adoption and use, I would expect a significant take up on, I guess, about a 10 year horizon. Not there yet for most folks but definitely on the way
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EV's and hybrids.. yes in the near future, autonomous cars... not a chance in the UK.
I'm not far out from a town centre but on the edge of the countryside, rural roads are wide one minute and a pinch-point the next with no white-line edging to guide except for farmers hedging (full of potholes to knock a car off line), many tarmacked roads suddenly change to unmade private/unadopted roads, I just can't see an autonomous car keeping it straight and safe.
The way they talk about driving they just don't appreciate that some of us actually enjoy getting in a car.
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The other problem is in remote places you would be lucky to be able to charge a phone let alone a car. The Scottish border is about half way up the country, north of the central lowlands it is thinly populated compared to the rest of the UK and distances are huge, neither battery or autonomous cars are viable up there.
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>> The other problem is in remote places you would be lucky to be able to
>> charge a phone let alone a car.
>>
ON, if the will to do it is there, all you need is a lamp post, we have 3 attached to lamp posts in Marlow, small town in leafy Bucks,
Most villages, even in rural Scotland, have some street lighting.
Autonomous cars & car sharing fits in cities for some people, I kind of agree that it will struggle to catch on as a 100% replacement in more rural areas.
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>>autonomous cars... not a chance in the UK.
You make good points, but I am quite sure that you are wrong.
It's not an either/or situation for autonomous or electric vehicles versus normal stuff. They are both things that will fit into the overall solution alongside driven internal; combustion engines.
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>>autonomous cars... not a chance in the UK.
I too am certain you are wrong. Ubers have, for many - in London, almost completely replaced any other form of transport as they are so cheap; eliminate the driver and they will be cheaper. Even in the sticks it will reach the point that it is easier and cheaper to clap your hands to summon a car than to own one.
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>> >>autonomous cars... not a chance in the UK.
>>
>> I too am certain you are wrong. Ubers have, for many - in London, almost
>> completely replaced any other form of transport as they are so cheap; eliminate the driver
>> and they will be cheaper. Even in the sticks it will reach the point that
>> it is easier and cheaper to clap your hands to summon a car than to
>> own one.
>>
But you will have to wait until one is free and there won't be as many in rural areas as in major towns and cities.
Wealthier areas will probably be furnished with the driverless cars first and some poorer areas may never get a service - a bit like broadband.
Another consideration is rush hour, what happens to your important meeting if all the cars are suddenly unavailable?
Lots of problems to be ironed out.
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>
>>
>> what happens to your important meeting if all the cars
>> are suddenly unavailable?
>>
>>
>>
A country that can develop a universal system of autonomous cars will surely have invented "video conferencing" by then?
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>> A country that can develop a universal system of autonomous cars will surely have invented
>> "video conferencing" by then?
>>
it has been there for years and within the UK gets little use in my experience, clients prefer face to face. In my experience it is mainly used for multi country sessions.
Conference calls get get used for day to day project stuff but there are still lots of people meeting in stuffy rooms every day.
Technology has not been the limiting factor in years, organisational culture is the constraint.
The reality is that, for many people, reducing the number of journeys will be the biggest improver over time.
Last edited by: commerdriver on Wed 29 Aug 18 at 11:26
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Sounds a bit like computers creating paperless offices. Will autominous cars go South of the river? :-)
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>> Sounds a bit like computers creating paperless offices. Will autominous cars go South of the
>> river? :-)
>>
Paperless offices were being discussed 40 years ago, while we use considerably less than we did then, we are not close to paperless
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>> >>
>> it has been there for years
>>
Irony just doesn't work on a forum, does it? :)
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I honestly believe the decrepit state of our roads will be a blocker for autonomous vehicles. You simply can't drive down many roads in the "correct" position, at anything close to the speed limit, and have four round wheels / inflated tyres at the end of it. Driving today is as much about not hitting potholes and craters as it is not hitting other road users.
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It's about driving at an appropriate speed for the conditions including the road surface. I would have thought relatively straightforward for an autonomous vehicle.
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When I am working then driving is nothing other than a chore, I use a driver as much as possible.
When I'm out socially I enjoy driving and so would want to drive myself.
When I am going out in the evening I pretty much always want a driver.
I think I will live to see the day where autonomous vehicles will fulfil two of those slots.
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I think as drivers we tend to overlook the tremendous benefits that autonomous cars would bring to thos who cannot or do not want to drive including the young, the old, those disqualified by medical conditions as well as those who would prefer not to drive in a particular situation for any number of reasons.
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Would the tremendous benefits, to that group of people, be beyond that that taxis currently provide?
Last edited by: sooty123 on Wed 29 Aug 18 at 18:32
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>> Would the tremendous benefits, to that group of people, be beyond that that taxis currently
>> provide?
You'd be in your own environment, presumably with your own stuff around you and the ability to have it exclusively for your own use.
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> You'd be in your own environment, presumably with your own stuff around you and the
>> ability to have it exclusively for your own use.
I assumed we were talking about autonomous and on demand cars as one and the same.
Would those factors mean they would be more likely to use them more than taxis? I'm not sure that they are make or break factors?
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Yes it would .Ownership of an autonomous vehicle would give you all the advantages do owning a car without the need to drive. Everyone in the household could use it whether they could drive or not. Autonomous taxi vehicles should be a lot cheaper without having to pay for drivers, by far the the most expensive part of running a taxi. They can operate 24 hours a day and. They could be summoned automatically and best of all you’ wouldn’t have to listen to a sweaty drivers views on Brexit and immigration.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Wed 29 Aug 18 at 18:54
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When I wrote taxis I included autonomous ones.
I wonder if the cost of them will decrease so it gives them much more freedom? I suppose we'll have to wait and see.
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>> I think as drivers we tend to overlook the tremendous benefits that autonomous cars would
>> bring to thos who cannot or do not want to drive including...…
Excellent point.
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>> I think as drivers we tend to overlook the tremendous benefits that autonomous cars would
>> bring to
the drunk. In country areas. This will revitalise country pubs and country dinner parties.
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Uber sign deal with Toyota for autonomous cars - Old Navy
