Motoring Discussion > What’s the chances? Miscellaneous
Thread Author: Lemma Replies: 64

 What’s the chances? - Lemma
In January we planned and reserved hotels and AirBnBs for a European road trip. Channel tunnel with the first night in Bruges, on to Heidelberg then south with the aim of two venues, mountain and lakes, in Switzerland in AirBnBs. Then into the Auvergne for a few nights in a small village, followed by a stopover in the Champagne area en route home.

Fortunately I did not book the tunnel, hotels can be cancelled and the AirBnBs are refundable if we cancel by the 20th May. We would be very sorry indeed to lose this trip, it is something we have wanted to do for a long time, it is some small comfort that we can cancel with minimal cost to ourselves, but of course a blow for the accommodation, restaurants etc we would hope to use.

I think we have pretty much written the trip off, but does anyone have any thoughts or insights as to the likelihood of being able to go? Maybe just to France perhaps. Looking on the internet gives no cause for optimism. Maybe by May some normality will have returned?
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 11 Apr 20 at 19:39
 What’s the chances? - No FM2R
I think May is too soon. June/July perhaps.

 What’s the chances? - Boxsterboy
>> I think May is too soon. June/July perhaps.
>>

I doubt that. The Tour de France normally runs the first 3 weeks of July and that has been pushed back to early September.
 What’s the chances? - Robin O'Reliant
>>
>> >>
>>
>> I doubt that. The Tour de France normally runs the first 3 weeks of July
>> and that has been pushed back to early September.
>>

With next to no hope of going ahead IMO.
 What’s the chances? - tyrednemotional
..every country around the world is struggling to come to terms with an "exit strategy".

Whilst there may be various differing levels of relaxation internally in the different countries (and probably graduated differently as the situation changes), my guess is that (due to local sensitivities and different approaches, and also concerns that this is not defeated until/unless there is mass vaccination) the chances of widespread relaxation on inter-country non-essential travel during the remainder of this calendar year are slim.

Even such inter-country travel as is allowed might well be subject to quarantine regulations - not conducive to a holiday.
 What’s the chances? - CGNorwich
Sadly the chance of unrestricted travel in the UK let alone overseas is going to be severely curtailed until a vaccine is developed. I’m resigned to the likelihood that foreign holidays won’t really be possible until 2022 at the earliest. Hope I’m wrong but I fear I’m not.
 What’s the chances? - sooty123
We were due to go on holiday in May, already asked and received a credit note. If you're due abroad in may i reckon you've no chance.
 What’s the chances? - BiggerBadderDave
I should've been on a flight this morning and in a rental car this afternoon.

That's two flights I've missed and various business opportunities gone. Pants firmly zipped up.

:(

 What’s the chances? - No FM2R
The airlines will fly as soon as they are able. The very minute.

Legally it is difficult for the Government to prevent outward travel at all and inward travel for any significant period of time.

People being restricted to home will fall apart before June.

I have a long haul flight booked for July. I am reasonably sure I'll be on it.
 What’s the chances? - BiggerBadderDave
July is 3 months away. Three more months. It's starting to drive me mad.
 What’s the chances? - Oldgit
>> July is 3 months away. Three more months. It's starting to drive me mad.
>>

Really? I'm rather enjoying certain aspects of it tbh. As long as I can take my cars out for runs to go and get shopping (not) then I am enjoying the roads of the '50s again. Shopping in The Glades at M&S is heaven as the car park is practically empty at 9am.

The only thing I miss and my only outside enjoyment, is eating out at various pubs in an around the Westerham and Sevenoaks areas and beyond. I don't 'do' holidays, haven't done so since 1969 so no loss there.
As long as the pensions keep on coming in, let it carry on but with less suppression, I suppose.
 What’s the chances? - God
>> I'm rather enjoying certain aspects of it tbh

Same 'ere

>> I don't 'do' holidays

Same 'ere .. haven't bin on holly day fer over 23 years, although I do go to Cornwall occasionally.

:o}
 What’s the chances? - legacylad
To balance things out I must be the polar opposite of the good folks who don’t ‘do’ holidays. When I take my extended 10 week winter trips to the Costa Blanca I don’t consider it a holiday, but moving my life to a part of the world which improves my life quality...much less arthritic pain, blue skies most days, healthier eating, more outside exercise.
In recent years I’ve spent half my year in various places overseas, both long haul and short, but once the current situation improves I don’t envisage being able to travel overseas immediately ....I’ll be more than happy self isolating by backpacking more of the Wales Coast Path. Unless it rains and it ain’t no fun in a small tarptent. A satisfying challenge remaining dry. But not a lot of fun.
 What’s the chances? - CGNorwich
It’s the freedom I miss so much. Going out to a pub or restaurant for lunch, visiting somewhere new, booking a cottage for a week in the Peak District, volunteering at a nearby nature reserve, going for a walk wherever and whenever I wish, seeing friends and relatives, planning foreign holidays, going to the cinema, browsing shops, visiting the garden centre, just chatting to acquaintances in my favourite cafe, going for a drive to the coast.

I miss so so much.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Fri 17 Apr 20 at 11:02
 What’s the chances? - God
I'm all for 'your type' of extended holidays leglad, just that I don't fancy the usual rush to the airport/check in/stuck in a cigar tube for hours, then the same in reverse all for a couple of weeks in the currant bun.
 What’s the chances? - legacylad
Doesn’t bother me in the slightest. 1 hour drive to airport. Leave car at Sentinel (LBA) or if going for an extended stay friends always give us a lift. 2 hour check in to be on the safe side. 2.5 hour flight. 30 mins disembark and passport control. 2 hours max to collect rental car and drive to accommodation. Total 7.5 hours, so by mid afternoon we’ve stocked up with food, had a beer and ready to fire up the BBQ.

Strangely but when I visit ( scrounge off) my pals in northern California I normally have an 06:15 airport departure, 3 flights in total, and really enjoy the entire travelling experience. 4 different airports, lots of people watching, some great views from 35,000’. 21+ hours travelling door to door. What’s not to like.
It’s obviously in my genes because my late father joined the Merchant Navy in his teens to see the world, which he did.....things improved considerably after Murmansk & Archangel !
 What’s the chances? - God
My late friend was in the Merchant Navy, he got to know a good number of countries (and women!) while he was in there.

He also lived as a hobo in Canada at one time, hopping on the Canadian Pacific railway 'til he held up a bank in Kingston, Ontario and got 10 years.
 What’s the chances? - Crankcase
You seem to have known a bunch of colourful characters, God. Are there any that wear beige Fatah slacks, come round for a cuppa and talk about jumble sales?
 What’s the chances? - God
Laurie Smith the leather craftsman was 10 characters-in-one, he lived 10 lifetimes-in-one too, died at 69 years
and "lived" every one of 'em.
 What’s the chances? - tyrednemotional
>>
>> I have a long haul flight booked for July. I am reasonably sure I'll be
>> on it.
>>

If that's to the UK, as a UK citizen you may well be able to enter. (and the UK is still fairly lax on entry anyhow).

If it is specifically on essential business, there may be some other places you will be allowed into.

Many other countries currently have hard bans on arrival (see the recent story on France returning a group of travellers that arrived by private jet from the UK), or significant quarantine restrictions. These will be slow to be lifted for the hoi polloi, even if there is some loosening up of internal restrictions. (no-one wants the issue of large foreign influxes and the health and repatriation issues they would bring in the event of a resurgence of infection, and there will be (natural) inter-country suspicion about the effectiveness of other countries exit strategies).

Add to that the likelihood that the FCO won't in the medium term lift the current indefinite advice against non-essential overseas travel, and even if you could travel, you won't have any insurance.

I do hope I'm wrong, but practically, I think this year is a complete write-off for overseas holidays (and might be for most for staycations as well).

 What’s the chances? - No FM2R
>>If that's to the UK

It's not, though the one in August is.
 What’s the chances? - Netsur
>> The airlines will fly as soon as they are able. The very minute.
>>
>> Legally it is difficult for the Government to prevent outward travel at all and inward
>> travel for any significant period of time.
>>
>> People being restricted to home will fall apart before June.
>>
>> I have a long haul flight booked for July. I am reasonably sure I'll be
>> on it.
>>

I certainly hope you are right. I don't really understand the UK government instruction to UK airlines not to fly, when other airlines from Europe are operating on a skeleton timetable. There are people who do need to fly for sound reasons and that will also keep some people employed.

 What’s the chances? - CGNorwich
Has there been an instruction to airlines not to fly? I don’t think there has. There is an instruction not to travel and for UK citizens overseas to return home. The government is in fact anxious that commercial routes remain open to enable those stranded overseas to return. British Airways are still operating a number of routes.
 What’s the chances? - Netsur
Except easyJet and Ryanair are grounded without a date of resumption, despite those airlines (not Jet2 or TUI) being also used by business travellers as well a holidaymakers.
 What’s the chances? - tyrednemotional
>> Except easyJet and Ryanair are grounded without a date of resumption....
>>

...AFAIK, Ryanair are still flying a (very) reduced schedule....
 What’s the chances? - CGNorwich
The point I was making was that there was no governmental instruction as you stated.
 What’s the chances? - Zero
>> Except easyJet and Ryanair are grounded without a date of resumption, despite those airlines (not
>> Jet2 or TUI) being also used by business travellers as well a holidaymakers.

There are no business travellers, and with no holiday traffic, being airlines run on the margins,* both closed down as a business decision, not because of state instruction.


* and happy to cancel flights on a whim during normal times.
 What’s the chances? - Duncan
Almost nothing in the sky

www.flightradar24.com/56.66,-2.92/8
 What’s the chances? - Zero


>> Almost nothing in the sky
>>
>> www.flightradar24.com/56.66,-2.92/8
>>

Sky News is doing a piece on empty public attractions looking at the track of GUKTV
 What’s the chances? - legacylad
I’ll admit to being a bit of a closet aviation anorak...the interest stems from summer holidays on Jersey flying from Yeadon ( LBA) when I was a nipper. Dart Heralds, Avro 748s era. My parents would leave me alone aged 10/12 yo at Jersey airport all day with a few bottles of water and sandwiches. These days they’d be in court for that !
This afternoon I noticed 4 contrails...aircraft was smaller than the normal BA A380 HRW> LAX overfly. It was a Kuwaiti Air Force C17 heading NW at 31k’. No idea where it was heading but a fabulous day to fly over the Lake District.
Last edited by: legacylad on Wed 15 Apr 20 at 19:11
 What’s the chances? - sherlock47
Surprised nobody else has answered this!

Flew from Kuwait to Prestwick, collecting Scotch for the Saudi Royals?

Seems to be a fairly regular UK trip - last week it went into LBA, it was on April 1st , doesn't time fly when you are having fun?

www.car4play.com/forum/post/index.htm?t=27796&m=604771&v=e
 What’s the chances? - zippy
Could be anything...

Collecting parts for the oil industry?

Bringing in sick patients for care here?

Bringing their service personnel here for training flight training?
 What’s the chances? - Bromptonaut
>> I certainly hope you are right. I don't really understand the UK government instruction to
>> UK airlines not to fly, when other airlines from Europe are operating on a skeleton
>> timetable. There are people who do need to fly for sound reasons and that will
>> also keep some people employed.

There's been no instruction from the government. BA continue to operate limited services both domestically on trunk routes and internationally to US, China etc. Eastern and Loganair are also operating domestically. As observed elsewhere the UK airlines that have grounded their fleets have simply responded to the lack of either business or leisure traffic.

Some BA services seem to be operating without passengers including a 777 or A350 to Tel Aviv most days. Presumably there's still enough freight to keep the holds at least partly filled.

KLM are still operating to a number of UK regional airports too.
 What’s the chances? - Fullchat
Should have been on a long weekend via North Sea Ferries to Normandy on the motorbike with a nights stop in Ypres on return. All cancelled. P&O have offered a 12 month credit note. Wouldn't refund unless government told them to stop activities which they are hardly liable to do because of the freight element. Anyway its no biggie other than the weather is just right for a bike trip. Bound to be raining next time.

Anyways my prediction. Not this year unless they come up with a vaccine pronto. They will slacken off the restrictions and the virus will emerge again. Another round of restrictions and so on. I would like to hope 2022 is not the date but there is a very strong possibility.
 What’s the chances? - legacylad
Whilst watching events unfold in Spain in February I realised I wouldn’t be returning in May.
By early March I realised that the trip I’d arranged for 12 friends to Jersey & Guernsey late June/early July wasn’t going to happen either. And I’m pretty sure our 6 week trip to Spain October/ November won’t happen. And I’m not confident about our over wintering trip to Spain winter 2021.
Lots of villa rentals, flights, car hire, hotels, ferries, airport parking pre paid in full.
Insignificant really when you consider the hell that our NHS front line people are going through.
 What’s the chances? - Zero
End of June will be my guess where stuff starts to ease globally. Sure airlines can kick start quickly, but what routes, and what loading's? - All unkowns even at the point of restart.

As for holidays, that will take longer to get going because the tour companies will get insufficient notice.
 What’s the chances? - Zero
>>
>> be severely curtailed until a vaccine is developed. I’m resigned to the likelihood that foreign
>> holidays won’t really be possible until 2022 at the earliest. Hope I’m wrong but I
>> fear I’m not.

Thats hopelessly pessimistic. At some stage we will switch from lock down the majority, to lock up the vulnerable minority. Immunity for the majority will happen before a vaccine for all. Its already going on.
 What’s the chances? - No FM2R
Agreed.
 What’s the chances? - CGNorwich
International travel without quarantine is not going to happen until an effective vaccine is available. We may well have to ease internal restrictions in this country although I don’t expect a return to pre Covid 19 life this year.

I just can’t see any country that has driven down its infection rate by imposing a lock down on its citizens allowing in tourists from another country where cases are still being reported.

Will we be happy to allow tourist from Wuhan this year? Why should other countries be about to welcome visitors from the UK?

 What’s the chances? - No FM2R
>>International travel without quarantine is not going to happen until an effective vaccine is available

What do you mean by quarantine?
 What’s the chances? - CGNorwich
Being isolated for sufficient time to be shown to be clear of infection before being allowed to travel freely.
 What’s the chances? - No FM2R
I don't think it'll happen.

I know the UK is trying to work out how to have some kind of "immunity" card but I don't see how that can work without reliable tests or a UK Photo ID card.

I think there is little doubt that there will be at least a second wave before there is a vaccine. But how severe that will be depends on how many of the particularly viable have died, or survived for that matter, and what proportion of the population the virus has already been through.

I think eventually people unwilling to be restricted and companies desperate for money will force their hand.

If the true infection vs fatality rate is anything less than 1%, and I rather suspect that it will be significantly lower than that, then I think pretty much everything will start up again - though obviously some things have a much longer lead time than others.

If you can't keep people worried about the likelihood and consequences of letting the virus, then in the real world you cannot restrict them.

I suspect that they not only expected a leaky lockdown, they wanted one. A 100% lock down would only have kicked the can down the corridor, and unless that lockdown could be held until there was a vaccine available (not a chance) then it was a hopeless and pointless path.

A leaky lockdown however allowed the virus to spread without [quite] overwhelming the health service. A delicate balance and we've yet to see for sure that they've achieved the right balance - but I think they're close.

In their calculations they allowed for up to 50% of people flouting the guidelines and I sense that it hasn't been that bad.

Stopping a forest fire happening not only achieves nothing it makes the forest fire next year much stronger. It's just a matter of allowing it to burn enough to remove the readily available fuel yet without overwhelming the Fire Service and thus allowing far too much of the forest to burn..
 What’s the chances? - jc2
Most holiday companies/ferries/airlines would prefer you to postpone your flights etc. rather than refund-that way the money remains in their bank-the danger is if they go bankrupt!
 What’s the chances? - CGNorwich
How do you propose the government “lock up the vulnerable minority”?
 What’s the chances? - Zero
>> How do you propose the government “lock up the vulnerable minority”?

The way they lock down the majority?


At some point, like it or not, they stay home or die. Tough s*** and all that, but if there is no economy to keep the NHS going they die anyway.
 What’s the chances? - Duncan

>> At some point, like it or not, they stay home or die. Tough s*** and
>> all that, but if there is no economy to keep the NHS going they die
>> anyway.
>>

I can forsee that if the government decrees that, say, those under 60 can resume relatively normal activities, work, leisure etc, whilst those 60 and over must remain in lockdown - or take the consequences - then a significant percentage will say stuff it - I am going to resume normal activities.

I am 85. At the moment it is quite a strange existence, no groups, no clubs, no pub, no restaurant, no rugby, no shopping. How much longer before I too say stuff it?

There are 11.9 million people in the UK over 65.

3.3 million over 80.

584,000 over 90.

What percentage of those would be an "acceptable" death rate? 1%? 5%? 10%? Quite horrific numbers, aren't they?

What is the answer?
 What’s the chances? - Oldgit
>> What is the answer?


Well I'm 82 now and my Sister is 87. We're prepared to take the risks. At our age you've got to go somehow. Would you rather get some other disease ie a stroke, heart attack or dementia etc and end up drooling in a care home?
My Sister currently has been 'fast tracked' for hospital examinations of various sorts and she should go for a CT scan this Thursday but don't like the idea of being in thst environment. They may find something amiss, who knows bit I know damn well that there would not be any treatment offered to someone that age or it it were she'd reject it.
I object being cosseted and treated like 2nd class citizens.
We both survived WW2 with bombs dropping all around us often tucked up in someone's Morrison or was it Anderson shelter until the all clear went off!
There's so much selfishness evident on this thread with people expecting to go hither and thither all the time. Perhaps free, unlimited travel may never be the same again or at least not for a long time.
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 13 Apr 20 at 02:42
 What’s the chances? - BiggerBadderDave
"There's so much selfishness evident on this thread"

Traveling is selfish?
 What’s the chances? - Haywain
"Traveling is selfish?"

Yeah - climate change, spreadin' viruses ........ nuffin to do wi' me, mate.
 What’s the chances? - No FM2R
>>There's so much selfishness evident on this thread

I haven't seen any. A variety of opinions, but no obvious selfishness. What did I miss?
 What’s the chances? - legacylad
I’m not expecting to travel anywhere overseas until summer 2021. Anything earlier is a bonus.

Bit like my skool motto “Aim low. Expect nothing. Don’t be disappointed”
 What’s the chances? - Zero

>> There are 11.9 million people in the UK over 65.
There are 54 million who are not,

>> 3.3 million over 80.
there are 63 million who are not

They need to restart the country to pay for the pension and hospitals of the 11.9 and 3.3 respectively

>> 584,000 over 90.

They are an insignificant minority who warrant no further discussion in this issue.

Given the above the governments cost by death figures kick in at some point int he curve,
 What’s the chances? - smokie
I'm not clear when your trip is ( - you suggest May in the last para but then say you cancel; by 20 May - ) but I'm in the process of cancelling a road trip, also Eurotunnel, AirBNB and hotels (through hotels.com), which was to start in late April and end mid May.

Most of my accomodation bookings were non-refundable. Hotels.com have cancelled and refunded nearly all of them now, except the last one, and AirBNB have refunded the early stay in Berlin but I've not yet asked them about the May stay in Koblenz.

Both of these organisations are refunding non-refundables under extenuating circumstances clauses specifically due to the virus. Both of them allegedly depend on proof of a government restriction which would cause me to not take up the accommodation. With both AirBNB and hotels.com they have refunded holidays which are outside the date range of existing legislation, in any country, as far as I can see, so I feel that they are not expecting April and 21st half of May holidays tp go ahead.

I did root around to try to find some stuff and Germany have a ban on tourism and France will not let me enter the country for tourism purposes - and of course travel to a UK port would not be considered essential in the UK.

I am impressed with both organisations for their approach, even though many would have simply expected it, or expected the government to compensate them or whatever.

Eurotunnel have offered us a free date change weeks ago, to a new date within the next year, rather than a refund. As we specifically want to go in the same exact period next year we are waiting till the last minute in the hope that we can shift it till then, or get a refund.

Anyway if it were me, even if I were technically able to go on the trip I don't think I would be doing so until we are a bit further past the worst of it. I have a holiday booked for Sept in Portugal which I am only 50/50 about. I'm pretty sure I will be practising social distancing to some degree for many months to come, whether or not it is mandatory.
 What’s the chances? - Bromptonaut
Our trip to Harris in May/June was cancelled by the cottage owner late last month. The letter says the government has decreed that all bookings for 2020 must be cancelled. They cannot get out there themselves either because of ferry services being restricted to residents.

Must remember to cancel my ferry bookings made when Covid was still just a foreign news story from China.

Keeping my eye on the situation in case situation has eased by mid/late summer.

Cannot see our other planned trip, France in the caravan, coming off either.
 What’s the chances? - legacylad
And don’t be dragging your shed up t’Dales making eyes at our Swaledales
Last edited by: legacylad on Sun 12 Apr 20 at 09:41
 What’s the chances? - Lemma
Some interesting comments and insights, thank you. I cant say I disagree with any but the most pessimistic of comments. We have in effect already accepted that this trip will not be going ahead. We have a visit to Greece, backpacking around the Greek islands, booked for late September/early October with friends travelling from across the Atlantic to join us. Inevitably that must be highly doubtful as well.

No doubt the holiday venues, particularly Mediterranean countries, will be very keen if not desperate for tourist revenue. It will be interesting to see how the tensions between science/health, politics and economics work out. I am particularly interested in how China might choose, or be forced, to deal with issues of food health and bio security, a topic that is occupying another aspect of my life at the moment.
 What’s the chances? - Terry
There are three possible strategies:

1. Total lockdown to minimise fatalities. Will have to last at least a year until vaccine available (possibly). Untenable economically and probably unenforcable long term.

2. Let it rip - high death toll (UK>0.5m??), hospitals etc utterly overwhelmed, political suicide.

3. Lockdown now with gradual loosening to keep within the stretch capacity (just) of NHS. Effectively what is happening now - albeit with local capacity breaches (PPE, ITU beds, etc).

On the basis that the government stays with (3) I suspect foreign travel in 2020 will be a non-starter:

- no insurer will want to cover you
- most countries will have closed borders - risk of carrying infection
- unless you have immunity do you want to risk travelling

Only possibility will be if there is an antibody test with mandatory accompanying photo ID. Some countries may put mutually acceptable arrrangements in place - eg: Europe and US - but it won't happen quickly.
 What’s the chances? - Zero
I suspect that a proportion of those planes grounded will never fly again. Holiday traffic will pick up for sure, but travel for commerce? I think the world has rapidly learned how to do without it.

Commercial globalisation has taken knock, risk managers are currently looking at how fragile their global supply chains* have proven to be, and will be formulating a close to market, production and supply back up and alternative, not all eggs in one far off basket.

*we havent hit the fragile supply chain problem yet, its coming tho.
 What’s the chances? - No FM2R
>>but travel for commerce? I think the world has rapidly learned how to do without it.

I think it has certainly worked out what justifies travel and what does not. Anybody on a trip for what is essentially a jolly will probably no longer get that trip.

And we *all* know when we're on a jolly.

The people actually doing work will need to travel, senior management actually in charge of and responsible for the work will still travel.

Middle management isn't, doesn't and won't. They will become entirely locally based supervisors which is exactly what they should always have been.

I too wonder about the impact on off-shore outsourcing. Especially with Trump swinging his weight around and commandeering stuff which will probably drive national ownership considerations.

I am not sure what will happen in the end, but it's going to be volatile for a while.

 What’s the chances? - Fullchat
"Commercial globalisation has taken knock, risk managers are currently looking at how fragile their global supply chains* have proven to be, and will be formulating a close to market, production and supply back up and alternative, not all eggs in one far off basket."

Perhaps this could develop within a tighter, like minded geographical area such as Europe.

Now let me think :S
Last edited by: Fullchat on Sun 12 Apr 20 at 17:25
 What’s the chances? - Netsur
I am currently in Israel caring for my father who was diagnosed with pancreactic cancer a few weeks ago. I arrived just as the crisis was ramping up and am now stuck here until passenger flights recommence.

He has decided not to undergo chemotherapy but work with the alternative therapy department within the specialist cancer unit at the hospital. They have recommended various supplements and the like, many of which are not available here over the counter and have to be ordered from overseas.

Having sourced them from the recommended suppliers in the US and parts of Europe, several have not arrived despite being despatched two or three weeks ago. So a work colleague has managed to find what we need in the UK; has had the delivered to his house and he packaged them up to send to us here. It took less than a week from collection from his house to delivery at my father's apartment here.

So some supply chains are working well and others are incapable of (literally) delivering the goods. Full marks to Fedex, TNT and UPS for doing what they promised. I just wish I could catch a lift on the plane back to the UK...
 What’s the chances? - Zero

>> Now let me think :S

Corona Virus will cause the Eu to fall apart dont you know that? Just like the Greek debt crisis, and the migrant crisis,

Oh wait a mo.
 What’s the chances? - Lemma
Well, I do think the survival of the euro is under some threat, and corona virus is amplifying the issues. The euro was a political figleaf to start with and only a loose grounding in economics. As we have seen the exchange rate initially set at the outset gave Germany an enormous economic advantage. The only country in Europe to consistently run a trade surplus. Without fiscal integration on a European scale, an ECB with teeth (something the Bundesbank would never countenance) and mutualisation of debt I cannot see it maturing into a stable currency.

We have seen how Greece had their pants pulled down a few years ago, and Italy is strongly resisting going down the same path. It is by no means inconceivable that ham fisted handling of this could lead to Italy leaving the EU. The Eurocrats have a track record of short sighted and poor performance. If they had given Cameron and indeed May something to work with then we would still be members.

Still, I like going there but sadly it doesn’t look like it will be this June. I will be cancelling my bookings shortly.
 What’s the chances? - devonite
IF.... As may be proved sometime in the future, that the virus was indeed leaked from Wuhan's viral lab and not originated in the wet-market as claimed, what could the world seek from China as recompense for the Mayhem. chaos and financial losses that it has suffered, or would it be passed off as "just one of those things" and each Country have to recover it's own losses in it's own ways?
 What’s the chances? - Zero
>> IF.... As may be proved sometime in the future,

As it will never be proven*, its a point not worthy of future consideration.

Proven as in it won't be possible to get the evidence, Never because its fake news from Fox News, the Trump news channel.
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