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Russian aircraft but registered in Ireland. Odd flag of convenience...
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 8 Nov 15 at 19:38
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Ireland has been big in aircraft leasing for a long time. Were the crew Russian?
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Looks like it broke up and fell out the sky with no mayday. Complete structural failure? unlikely. Ground to air Missile? -too high for a man launched missile, and no wheeled launchers in the area. Air to Air missile? no interceptors reported.
Bomb?
Last edited by: Zero on Sat 31 Oct 15 at 22:29
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>> Russian aircraft but registered in Ireland. Odd flag of convenience...
>>
Fairly unlikely the standards in Ireland are higher than Russia. Little convenience to be gained.
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Sky news reporting that the co-pilots wife said he was unhappy with the condition of the aircraft.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Sat 31 Oct 15 at 23:06
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Shannon Airport is a major aircraft maintenance centre. The aircraft that crashed in the Sinai was an Airbus 321 belonging to Russian operator Metrojet.
Last edited by: Stuartli on Sun 1 Nov 15 at 00:09
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Reports are that the plane broke in two before crashing so I guess it is either a bomb or a catastrophic failure of a component.
The plane apparently had a tail strike in Egypt (Cairo) in 2001. I hope that damage caused by that was repaired properly!?
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>> The plane apparently had a tail strike in Egypt (Cairo) in 2001. I hope that
>> damage caused by that was repaired properly!?
Similarity to the Japanese 747SR JA123 in 1985 or Vanguard Beeline 706 (G-APEC) over Belgium in 1971?
The first was faulty repair to rear pressure bulkhead, the latter corrosion to same component due a leaking toilet. In both cases the bulkhead failed with resultant explosive decompression destroying the tail fin/plane or its controls.
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>> Reports are that the plane broke in two before crashing so I guess it is
>> either a bomb or a catastrophic failure of a component.
If it's not a bomb then unlikely to be any component. No component failure would cause a breakup in flight.
>> The plane apparently had a tail strike in Egypt (Cairo) in 2001. I hope that
>> damage caused by that was repaired properly!?
>>
Wouldn't be the first time it's taken years for an incorrect scoped/repaired fault had caused a failure. A 747 from JAL springs to mind, can't remember all the details, an F15 iffy repair caused issues years later, I think it piled in because of it.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 1 Nov 15 at 19:38
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PPrune is carrying a number of very high quality pictures of debris and debris field. Post233 is worth a look.
www.pprune.org/rumours-news/569907-breaking-news-airliner-missing-within-egyptian-fir-12.html#post9164867
Note: regular users will be aware that moderation on that site can result in postings being deleted and hence post No. can change. So if 233 does not yield result scroll around a little.
One thing that surprised me was that the military had apparently started gathering and moving some parts/materials around. I thought the forensic analysis worked on the basis that everything is logged and mapped before removal.
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>> One thing that surprised me was that the military had apparently started gathering and moving
>> some parts/materials around. I thought the forensic analysis worked on the basis that everything is
>> logged and mapped before removal.
In Europe and the US yes, Air accident investigators lead the scene. Elsewhere in the world, anything happens, from burying the evidence to cover it up to widespread looting of site and bodies.
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The media, especially the box yesterday, have been faffing about the range of BUKs and other SAMs, and suggesting the aircraft had been shot down from inside Sinai by wicked Islamists.
Actually any idiot can see that it was blown up in the air by a bomb placed on board in Cairo. The interesting question is, who by? It isn't easy to pick a prime suspect from the longish list of evil governments and agencies capable of doing something like that.
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>> Actually any idiot can see that it was blown up in the air by a
>> bomb placed on board in Cairo.
I thought it had been on the ground at Sharm El Sheikh overnight.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Tue 3 Nov 15 at 16:53
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Missed the edit:-
My armchair theory is it was a bomb which took the tail off resulting in the two stalls and a vertical descent.
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>> it had been on the ground at Sharm El Sheikh overnight.
Sharm El Sheikh... my mistake.
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>> Sharm El Sheikh... my mistake.
>>
Shurm mishteikh, shurrley, ?
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"I thought it had been on the ground at Sharm El Sheikh overnight."
AC knew that, but Cairo was easier to spell.
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The airline has denied any possibility of technical/structural failure, which carries no credibility at all since they cannot possibly know (unless they know the actual cause).
There seems no doubt it broke up in the air, which leaves bomb, ground-to-air missile, air-to-air missile, and structural failure.
There are no reports of other aircraft in the vicinity (there is radar coverage I believe), no reports of truck-mounted missile systems in the area, and it was out of range of manpads.
Discounting meteorites, that leaves bomb or structural failure.
This aircraft needed material repair after a tailstrike 14 years ao - it is not beyond the bounds of reasonable possibility that it could have failed structurally; my amateur guess is that, or a bomb maybe loaded at Sharm.
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If it was the tail section that failed, one has to wonder about the previous damage and repair.
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>> If it was the tail section that failed, one has to wonder about the previous damage and repair.
>>
So far there is no indication / leaks from the investigation that any explosive residue has been found.
From what I read on Pprune, the repairs were done at Tolouse ( by Airbus?).
Trawling through the vast amount of dross on Pprune it seems to me that it was mechanical failure of some sort in the tail / area started the whole thing off.
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There have been at least two explosive decompressions followed by mid-air break-ups following unsatisfactory structural repairs. In both cases, the cause of the earlier damage was a tailstrike.
Competent investigators will not jump to the conclusion that it must therefore have been the cause of the recent crash, but it makes nonsense of the airline's assertion that nothing can have gone wrong with the plane.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Airlines_Flight_123#Cause
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611#Metal_fatigue
The level of incompetence in the first case beggars belief.
In that case, a splice plate was cut in half parallel to the crack being repaired, in order to make it fit. That repair was done by the manufacturer.
In the second, the repairs were done by China Airlines, and the overplating covered a smaller area than required by the Boeing procedures.
Last edited by: Manatee on Wed 4 Nov 15 at 14:07
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Hmmm... it seems I have rushed hastily to judgement once again. Pay no attention.
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news.sky.com/story/1581778/no-10-explosive-device-may-have-downed-plane
Flights from Sharm to the UK delayed.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Wed 4 Nov 15 at 17:59
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BBC saying flights suspended.
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BBC managed to slip in the C word.
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"BBC managed to slip in the C word"
Coil pack?
Ours failed on the Focus this morning, but I wouldn't have thought that it would have made national news.
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Dear A.C.
We don't !!!!
Only kidding :-)
Last edited by: Roger. on Wed 4 Nov 15 at 20:23
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Hmm
Russki's now saying bomb.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-34743216
Have ISIS taken on one enemy too many, can't see the Russians being overly restrained and the West is hardly going to complain.
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The Taliban chased Russia out of Afghanistan before our politicians decided that we should have another attempt there. Maybe the Russians are not all they are cracked up to be. Admittedly they are not as restrained as us.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 18:39
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>> Have ISIS taken on one enemy too many, can't see the Russians being overly restrained
>> and the West is hardly going to complain.
Russia is as toothless as the West when it comes to terrorism outside their own borders.
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And not a particularly good one within...night at the theatre anyone ?
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Does anyone else think the airline passengers stranded in Egypt were nuts for going there in the first place?
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YES!
I vetoed a holiday there a few years ago.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 19:43
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Coincidentally I did the same for a holiday in Scotland.
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We went a couple of times to Taba Heights, the first time just after the bomb at the Taba Hilton. The security after that was fairly high, with the whole resort area enclosed by a fence with Egyptian army 'border guards'.
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No, not really. Statistically pretty unlikely to be involved in an incident and why give in to perceived threats of terrorism. Isn't scaring off tourists and destabilising economies what they are trying to achieve?
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>> Statistically pretty unlikely to be involved in an incident and why give
>> in to perceived threats of terrorism. Isn't scaring off tourists and destabilising economies what they
>> are trying to achieve?
Hmm.
Agreed in principle, but would I take my family there?....nope. Not a chance in hell.
Everywhere around it is in conflict, Egypt isn't what it was, there's lax security... how many more signs would you need to be wary?
Cheap holidays are cheap for a reason.
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I would have gone to Egypt...probably still on my to-do list.
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>> Does anyone else think the airline passengers stranded in Egypt were nuts for going there
>> in the first place?
No? Apart from being home three days late, and not having had access to free booze during that time, in what way has it all gone TU for them?
My next door neighbour goes to Sharm every February (for all of February, she says it cheaper than heating the house) and has done for the last 10 years. And she will be going in Feb 2016 as well. I expect to see her back on time.
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 19:53
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I think I read that the resort itself is quite safe it's the airport that's not. However if the airport is shut, how many other airports are there reasonably near by?
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Well said. Some were bleating on the radio earlier...they will get home back to a very safe country in a few days. They won't be clambering into a rubber dinghy with a hundred others risking their lives to very uncertain future.
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>> Does anyone else think the airline passengers stranded in Egypt were nuts for going there
>> in the first place?
I wouldn't go as far as 'nuts' but the Foreign Office travel advice site shows Sharm (and presumably Hurghada too) as tiny islands of relative safety in areas otherwise subject to essential travel only restrictions.
It shouldn't be a surprise if something upsets the balance and spoils your trip.
And frankly if you're anywhere abroad in a time of uncertainty you shouldn't expect to be spoon fed by either government or your tour operator. Even in France where I understand the lingo I'd not expect too much when migrants disrupt the tunnel.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 21:21
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>> Russia is as toothless as the West when it comes to terrorism outside their own
>> borders.
>>
Yes, but they are not constrained by democratic government processes, are not as squeamish about people dying and have a fair amount of resources.
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No way I'd be going to anywhere in Egypt. And I wouldn't have for years (not been but no plans). Same went for Tunisia before the last lot of troubles. We came close to going to Tunisia in early 2010 after selling a house but didn't get around to it. Glad we didn't now.
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When London was bombed repeatedly by the IRA, did we give up and abandon the place? When Terrorists detonated bombs on the LU did we give up and stop traveling to work?
No we didn't. Because had we, they would have won. And it would have got worse everywhere.
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The last time I was in Egypt, which we some years ago the main shopping street had all the parking spaces blocked off with concrete blocks. The hotels had airport style metal detectors on one of the front doors but the sleepy policeman on duty did not enforce its use. The staff entrance at the back of the hotel had one also, not powered up or access supervised. There was lots of high visibility security which would be impressive to the average punter. I was in Navy throughout the bad times with the IRA, and spent a brief time in NI during that time, and had shots fired in my general direction. I think I know how to asses anti terror precautions and no way would I or any of my family go anywhere near Egypt or the surrounding countries. The world has plenty of other places to go to.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 20:19
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I've been to places in the ME very similar as you describe ON. I actually enjoyed my time there, a couple of us took a car and went off a few hours away from the hotel/tourist area and again it was enjoyable. I find it best not to worry too much about these things and carry on as normal.
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>> I find it best not to worry too much about these things and carry on as normal.
>>
Nothing personal but ignorance is bliss, or did you do a quick mental risk assessment with the knowledge to make it reasonably accurate?
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 20:31
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>> Nothing personal but ignorance is bliss, or did you do a quick mental risk assessment?
>>
Don't worry I don't really get offended. It was somewhere outside of the tourist area I wanted to visit, the armed guards don't really bother me. Travel enough around the ME and they blur into the background. I felt it was worth it in risk vs reward.
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>> had shots fired in my general direction. I think I know how to asses anti
>> terror precautions and no way would I or any of my family go anywhere near
>> Egypt or the surrounding countries. The world has plenty of other places to go to.
So lets see now, would you like to calculate how many British Tourists have been to Egypt in the last 40 years, divide the number who have been killed and work out a risk percentage? How many 0s to the right of the decimal point do you think there will be.
Shedloads. More zeros than there are windy pretend jocks.
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>> Shedloads. More zeros than there are windy pretend jocks.
>>
I will be passing over the area, and through Dubai in a couple of weeks. I don't forsee any problems.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 20:56
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To be honest nowhere is really safe from terrorism these days. If you are worried about terrorism you should avoid travelling anywher. However the likelihood of being involved in an incident is vanishingly small and since predictiing where the next act of terrorism is going to take place you might as well ignore it and get on with life. If the Foreign Office tell me it's safe to travel to a country then that's good enough for me.
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I am sure you are right, I prefer to have the odds slightly in my favour. Having an armed escort on tourist buses, and them traveling in armed convoys is also nota good sign.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 20:27
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The odd are hugely in your favour of not being killed by a terrorist wherever you are in the world.
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>> To be honest nowhere is really safe from terrorism these days.
That's right. Nowhere ever was safe from it really.
But that's no reason for avoiding the Middle East or Africa or Asia. If you're a sodding wimp go to some boring beach in England. Don't forget the knotted hanky to keep the dreaded sun off your apology for a brain.
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>> Have ISIS taken on one enemy too many, can't see the Russians being overly restrained
>> and the West is hardly going to complain.
>>
I think the reverse about this, the Russians may well be thinking what have they let themselves in for?
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Unfortunately there are more than two sides in Syria and while Russia and the USA are both opposing Daesh, the Russians are also opposing anti-Assad groups that are supported by the US.
The Turks are anti Daesh and anti-Assad, but partly reluctant to hit Daesh as that would indirectly help Kurdish groups that they don't like.
The Russians are I assume primarily there to support Assad. Saudi, Qatar, and Hezbollah are somewhere in the mix as well.
It doesn't seem capable of being resolved in a short time by anybody. "My enemy's enemy is my friend" doesn't quite work in Syria.
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>> The Russians are I assume primarily there to support Assad. Saudi, Qatar, and Hezbollah are
>> somewhere in the mix as well.
I believe that Iran has some involvement and maybe troops in Syria to muddy the waters even more.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 21:03
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>> I believe that Iran has some involvement and maybe troops in Syria to muddy the
>> waters even more.
Thanks, I forgot them...
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>> Thanks, I forgot them...
>>
No problem, I have no idea whose side they are on. :-)
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>> I believe that Iran has some involvement and maybe troops in Syria to muddy the
>> waters even more.
>>
Backing/supporting the Iraqis and supporting Hezbollah. They also still have 'issues' with the saudis who have similar issues with them. Part of the power play in the ME.
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Anyone enlighten me what the abbreviation "HS" means in aviation terminology ? Mentioned often on the PPR site.
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>> Anyone enlighten me what the abbreviation "HS" means in aviation terminology ? Mentioned often on
>> the PPR site.
>>
What's the context?
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Horizontal stabiliser. As In horizontal tailplane, vital for keeping the aircraft level in pitch.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 20:45
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Hawker Siddeley? Surely not. Context, please!
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Ah, it is the Horizontal Stabilizer context...!
Last edited by: R.P. on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 21:17
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In old money...I'd have understood that
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blown off by a bomb, (Improvised explosive device in new money)
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>> Fin is the vertical bit.
aka the VS.
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>> >> Fin is the vertical bit.
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>> aka the VS.
>>
Names vary from aircraft to aircraft.
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>> Fin
Wow, haven't seen or heard that expression for a fiver in a c***'s age. Well done Zero.
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 21:25
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Fins are on submarines. :-)
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>> Fins are on submarines. :-)
>>
As well as aircraft? good stuff :)
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Deleted
Last edited by: zippy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 22:32
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If that is indeed a true story.... someone needs to investigate further. We all know it would be easy to take a plane down when they come in to land if you're close enough and have something to do it with. Anyone on or near a flight path at their house could easily bring something down.
Thankfully that sort of thing does not happen in the UK.
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Has to be a load of bolleux, there is no way UK jets would still be flying there if they had previously been within seconds of being targeted or hit by a missile.
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It was the Egyptian military. Probably more cock up than malice.
Last edited by: Old Navy on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 22:39
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source of missile alters nothing. Chances are it came nowhere near the plane.
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 6 Nov 15 at 22:40
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True story. I was having a meal with someone who works for another holiday airline a week after this he told me the story. There was a "notice to airmen" shortly afterwards.
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BBC news reporting this morning that an explosion can be heard on one of the flight recorders.
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the theory or intelligence is apparently, that someone airside (either a worker or a trespasser) got access and placed a device in the hold.
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>> Daily Mail hype but confirmed by the Dept of Transport.
>>
>> www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3307741/Rocket-attack-UK-tour-jet.html
>>
Take with pinch of salt, methinks.
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I think "attack" is journalistic hype, but something happened.
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As mentioned I was told the story back when it happened, it was seen from the cockpit, no threat to the aircraft, appeared to be an RPG or similar, well below any level of risk. It was reported as per CAA requirements.
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>> I think "attack" is journalistic hype, but something happened.
It's not been made clear what sort of missile was involved or whether it was actually an anti aircraft device or some sort of drone. If the event had had the drama suggested by the Mail article the 'avoiding action' would surely have been apparent to the cabin crew who were said to be unaware until after landing.
Love the way the Mail's (teenage?) scribes cover this stuff, a 'source' having told them "The first officer was in charge at the time but the pilot was in the cockpit and saw the rocket coming towards the plane".
I presume that means the First Officer was the pilot flying and the Captain was monitoring. The FO is of course a pilot too and unless the Captain was in the bog he's going to be on the flightdeck too.
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The TV speculation is that it was an RPG that was misfired. I can imagine a young conscript trying to work out if he is more frightened of the RPG or his regular army instructor. Whoever fired it is probably regretting ever having seen a rocket launcher.
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It was an RPG type attack.
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>> It was an RPG type attack.
Fired from where? Inside the aircraft?
Or are you referring to the August incident?
The aircraft last week was at ~30,000 feet.
The Times this morning said an "explosive decompression" could be heard on the tape before it cut out. That is not the same as an explosion. If there was a catastrophic failure of the pressure hull at that height then there would be an "explosive decompression" and if it broke the tail off (something did) then it would break power and signal cables to the FDR and CVR (which are in the tail cone AFAIK).
The question is what caused the decompression, a chemical explosion (outside or inside) or a structural failure. That has happened twice before with aircraft that have had extensive repairs following a tailstrike (links upthread somewhere).
If the investigators are saying with certainty that it was a bomb, missile etc then they must have found evidence of that (explosive traces, shrapnel, characteristic deformation etc.) or have received credible intelligence.
Last edited by: Manatee on Sat 7 Nov 15 at 14:17
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Sorry the August thing.
As regards the other, very much what the ongoing discussion on the PPR site is talking about. Worth a read.
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>> If the investigators are saying with certainty that it was a bomb, missile etc then they must have found evidence
Photo in the comic today showed a piece of fuselage with a shrapnel hole punched in it from the inside. Of course it could have been a bit of shrapnel that had passed right through the aircraft.
The uncertainty persists. One wonders however whether 'investigators' always come clean on everything they know or think.
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Is RPG Role Playing Game, as in Dungeons and Dragons?? :-)
(I know really...)
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I wouldn't know Smokie...I know what a Rocket Propelled Grenade is though !
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From the little information it's hard to work anything out. An RPG has a pretty short range and might at a push be used against a low flying helicopter, but not much against an a/c. I think after a peace agreement with Isreal the sinai area is quite demilitarised so not so how much presence the egyptian military has in the area?
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No way an rpg could reach 30,000 feet. But there are missiles that can.
No one is going to come clean about what happened. But there was an explosion, in the plane or near it.
It's a mystery, who could have wanted to commit this vile atrocity. But candidates aren't lacking. A mystery.
Last edited by: Armel Coussine on Sat 7 Nov 15 at 20:47
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I am sure the Israelis and Americans who have that area under intensive survellience know what happened but are not saying.
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>> But there are missiles that can.
You mean very large missiles like the one that brought down the plane over the Ukraine? I'm sure those that know these things will know if anything like that was in the area.
Some of the signs that the flight over the Ukraine was brought down from the missile was the damage from the outside to the fuselage. It looks like some of the damage this time came from the inside...
We'll know sooner or later what happened.
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>> No way an rpg could reach 30,000 feet. But there are missiles that can.
>>
>> No one is going to come clean about what happened. But there was an explosion,
>> in the plane or near it.
>>
>> It's a mystery, who could have wanted to commit this vile atrocity. But candidates aren't
>> lacking. A mystery.
>>
There are substantial mountains north of the airport. We used to climb to the minimum safe altitude on departure and make a hard left turn over them with only 2000 feet clearance.
As far as I know thst no longer happens (been 3 years at least since I've been there).
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Egyptian Air Crash. - Bromptonaut
