***** This thread is now closed, please continue discussion in volume 26 of the EU In/Out thread *****
==============================================================
This is a placeholder for discussing events after the referendum.
Going by all polls so far, it is likely to be a close contest. So, a lot of people will be disappointed.
There won't be any more referendum for couple of decades at least.
So how will you react when your side doesn't win?
Simply shrug the shoulders and get on with life?
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 10:13
|
Can I be the first to say "I told you so"
Neck now firmly on the block :-)
|
If its a vote to remain it'll be whining and complaining. Telling everyone who'll listen it was a fit up, how they couldn't possibly win because of the establishment etc.
If it's a vote to leave, i think most career politicians will be shocked, it will make the expenses scandal look like a walk in the park. Then they'll have to get on negotiating something few of them wanted.
|
A vote for Leave is a guarantee Labour will win the next GE.
Why? Because odds on we will have a recession in the next four years. Now Leave have officially stated that Brexit will not cause a recession. Which is rather dumb because recessions are a fact of economic life. So unfairly, they would be blamed for the next one. Cue proper civil war in the Conservative Party.. And much lying about who meant what..
Hence Labour win.
Just to ensure there is no doubt:
Michael Gove: tinyurl.com/z9awrw3
Last edited by: madf on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 11:40
|
>> If its a vote to remain it'll be whining and complaining. Telling everyone who'll listen
>> it was a fit up, how they couldn't possibly win because of the establishment etc.
And they will have a point, in view of the despicable way the government has conducted itself.
>> If it's a vote to leave, i think most career politicians will be shocked, it
>> will make the expenses scandal look like a walk in the park. Then they'll have
>> to get on negotiating something few of them wanted.
I'd guess that more than half of the Conservative party is anti-EU. As is Corbyn for that matter. Hardly surprising that the cabinet is the opposite, Cameron picked them. The losers will have no trouble at all adapting whichever result.
Last edited by: Manatee on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 11:49
|
A win for remain may boost UKIP in next general election. Because this might be only path tor leave followers to vent their anger.
Unless there is a split in Tories via frustrated outie tories.
I don't understand Labour's strategy. They are supposed to represent working class citizens who are mostly affected by unlimited EU migration.
|
>> And they will have a point, in view of the despicable way the government has
>> conducted itself.
>
Do you really think that any politician, on either side, comes out of this with any credit
|
|
There are probably many of the Jo Cox type, who we never hear about because of our hysterical, biased press.
|
>> There are probably many of the Jo Cox type, who we never hear about because
>> of our hysterical, biased press.
>>
Probably true, I do not think any of the leading politicans, on either side, come out smelling of roses
|
I understand the result of the referendum isn't binding, It's up to parliament to decide.
Either way, we've been given the opportunity to express our preference. If I'm not in the majority, then so what? The politician I vote for sometimes doesn't get elected, I don't get upset about it.
I feel both campaigns have been totally OTT, remind me of 'Chicken-Licken'.
|
>> politician I vote for sometimes doesn't get elected
That is because of FFTP system - there are lots of wasted votes.
EU referendum is still something no one can confidently predict the outcome yet.
|
I understand the result of the referendum isn't binding, It's up to parliament to decide.
And given that vote will be close, I foresee shedloads of wrangling from politicians on both sides. If parliament doesn't go the way of the referendum, I think you can write off the party seen as behind this.
Given the tightness of the vote, I suspect some interesting statistics will emerge. Probably most of them will hinge on just what percentage of the 'didn't votes' holding the other view would have reversed the referendum. I suspect, not many.
We're in for fun times - whichever way the vote goes, that much is certain.
|
>> Given the tightness of the vote
I wasn't aware the votes had been counted yet.
The polls were dramatically wrong about the last General Election, and the Scottish referendum.
|
I wasn't aware the votes had been counted yet.
>>
>> The polls were dramatically wrong about the last General Election, and the Scottish referendum.
You think they are wrong, if so what do you think it'll be?
|
>> I wasn't aware the votes had been counted yet.
>> >>
>> >> The polls were dramatically wrong about the last General Election, and the Scottish referendum.
>>
>>
>> You think they are wrong, if so what do you think it'll be?
>>
Clear Remain win.
|
> Clear Remain win.
>>
Fair enough, ball park how much clear?
|
>> 55-60% Remain.
>>
Well we'll soon find out.
|
What odds are PaddyPower offering?
1/4 on remain.
3/1 on Brexit.
Belter!
And of that, decisions are made!
|
>> The polls were dramatically wrong about the last General Election, and the Scottish referendum.
They were certainly wrong on the outcome of the GE. Labour failed to gain traction in seats like Nuneaton where it had to win. There are no key or three way marginals in the EU referendum and no oddities of FPTP. A single national result, Leave or Remain, should be easier to get right.
Not sure how one can interpret those on the Scottish Referendum as dramatically wrong. The final result was 45/55. Most of the polls in final week were in that ball park. Allowing for differing numerical bases, there was no 'don't know option on the ballot, I'd say the polls got it right on that occasion.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 14:45
|
There was a lot of chat at the time about how "close" it would be on Scotch Scottishlandshire. The result, though, was clear in the end. It suits those on the lower polling side (in this case Leave) to present it as close - usually the silent majority has it's say though. It's no surprise that the voice of agitators for change are the most strident in a campaign such as this, and that gives an artificial weight to their real numbers I think.
Of course, could be wrong, we'll see.
|
Oh for Petes sake, Given the anticipated tightness of the vote...
Any better?
If it's a clear cut result with a decent majority, I'll be very surprised.
Last edited by: Slidingpillar on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 14:43
|
|
I still can't see why ANY Politician would want one of the E.U's best Milk cows being milked dry in *their* paddock instead of our own! - If Leave lose, so be it, but you (or your descendants) will probably regret it in the end. I can see it in the Tea-leaves!
|
I think when the reverberations have died down and the gunsmoke blown away we need a serious look at whether referendums are actually all they are cracked up to be democratically.
They are not historically part of our democratic process, as we have a representative democracy, not a Swiss-style flip an instant button one.
No result is ever going to achieve a clear resounding victory, 40% will always be dissatisfied and thirsting for a re-run, but unlike a parliamentary outcome, no representative is accountable for the implementation stage. The "winning" side cannot be held accountable for the consequences.
It is in my view a parallel and incompatible process which does more to undermine than enhance democracy.
|
>> >> And they will have a point, in view of the despicable way the government
>> has
>> >> conducted itself.
>> >
>> Do you really think that any politician, on either side, comes out of this with
>> any credit
Politicians on both sides have used lies and half-truths. The point is that the government has misused its considerable resources and power for example with the "Facts" leaflet which is pure Remain propaganda launched on 6th April by Liz Truss under the headline
"Government responds to public desire for EU facts"
www.gov.uk/government/news/government-responds-to-public-desire-for-eu-facts
This the same Liz Truss who on 25th February on QT said that some some 'neutral' civil servants are producing an assessment (on instructions from the government).
I do believe that the majority of politicians go into it for the common good. I also think that the ones who get very far up the greasy pole come to believe that the end justifies the means.
Last edited by: Manatee on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 12:54
|
The point is that the government
>> has misused its considerable resources and power for example with the "Facts" leaflet which is
>> pure Remain propaganda
assuming that's true do you think it actually changed anyone's mind?
Put aside whether they should/shouldn't have done it.
|
>> assuming that's true do you think it actually changed anyone's mind?
Yes, I think if an official looking document lands on someone's doorstep, some people assume that it is something they must do by legally.
This is similar to how parking companies mimic council type PCNs to coerce punters to pay up.
|
>> >> assuming that's true do you think it actually changed anyone's mind?
>>
>> Yes, I think if an official looking document lands on someone's doorstep, some people assume
>> that it is something they must do by legally.
>>
There has been a lot of official looking claims / documents from both sides I do not honestly believe that either side has been "without sin" but that will not stop a lot of stones being cast each way for the next few weeks/months.
Hopefully a few political careers will be shortened, on both sides.
|
Yes, I think if an official looking document lands on someone's doorstep, some people assume that it is something they must do by legally.
>>
>> This is similar to how parking companies mimic council type PCNs to coerce punters to pay up.
I'm not so sure, I find very few people change their mind. Fairly small sample on here of course, but very few have. Other forums I'm on show a similar lack of people changing their mind. Most people i know or heard of that spoke of it either binned it or sent it back to the conservative hq.
Of course there could be a lot of silent people who were genuinely influenced by it. But i honestly think it's people getting their excuses in early
|
Remain is going to win. Farage lost it for Remain Leave..
Last edited by: madf on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 13:13
|
Whoever loses, I do hope their biggest idiot cops the blame. Because some of the politicians have been outrageously idiotic.
|
Also, I assume that if Remain wins, then Leave is going to be more vocal than ever trying to at least use it as political capital, though not actually likely to change the result.
But if Leave win, I wonder what Remain will do....
Realistically they cannot simply ignore the result. I cannot really see how the Government can delay making a decision for very long. Will the EU suddenly make more concessions in order to influence?
|
If remain wins, I wonder how EU is going to penalize us for our mischief (= holding referendum). They must do something in order to deter other countries showing such audacity :-)
|
>>If remain wins, I wonder how EU is going to penalize us for our mischief
There are a number of reasons that I think a significantly substantial Remain win would be bad. I am in favour of a marginal Remain win.
Stay in, but make sure nobody gets comfortable and that politicians know that the issue isn't going away. That should keep them in line for the foreseeable future.
|
>> If remain wins, I wonder how EU is going to penalize us for our mischief
>> (= holding referendum). They must do something in order to deter other countries showing such
>> audacity :-)
I see Switzerland have withdrawn their application to join the EU. Perhaps with them, we could set up a small community of, say, European countries wishing to trade freely with each other? No more than maybe half-a-dozen.
;>)
|
>>I see Switzerland have withdrawn their application to join the EU. Perhaps with them, we could set up a small community of, say, European countries wishing to trade freely with each other? No more than maybe half-a-dozen
Good Idea! ;-) - and maybe whichever Muppets are in control could invite the Countries that the E.U don't really want, to join us!
|
How about we have a league system like in football. Strong teams/countries in the premier league of the EU. Then lower leagues - so Greece and Italy would be in division 2 for example ;-)
At the end of the year two are relegated/promoted.
|
Just in case anyone mistakes this for a serious story, Switzerland's application lapsed soon after it was made in 1992 and is being formally ended now so that Switzerland can tighten its own immigration and residency rules, which are now contrary to its previous agreement for access to EU markets.
Residents of Switzerland, incidentally, are about 25 percent non-Swiss, so a post-Leave UK would have some catching up to do.
|
|
Can we expect a 'It's the Sun wot won it" headline?
|
55-45 is not a clear win but only a mathematical win. If 45% of electorates views are ignored that it is not a good thing.
A clear win, in my terms, should be at least 80-20 (which I don't think is going to happen).
Also, I don't know if Scottish referendum can be compared with EU referendum. There are much stronger ties between England and Scotland than between UK and EU. Again, just my opinion.
|
>> If 45% of electorates
>> views are ignored that it is not a good thing.
Have a look at General Election results. Usually 60-65% of people's views are ignored. Life goes on. 55-45 will be a very clear win.
|
Apparently, more folk vote for Simon Cowell's talentless-spotting shows than vote at the polls.
Sad. But true.
|
>> Have a look at General Election results. Usually 60-65% of people's views are ignored.
True but that's because of FFTP system (personally I oppose FFTP and in favour of proportional representation).
In referendum result, all votes will be counted.
|
We are likely to see 40% of people not voting. Remember that in future when someone whinges about "the wrong result". Ask them if they voted. And if they say no, tell them it's their own fault...
I do that to whingers about politics- many whinge but don't vote. It tends to shut them up.
|
That is how dictatorships get in.
The local apartheid nationalists, for example...
3 million whites
1.5 million eligible to vote
800 000 registered to vote
500 000 voted.
That to govern 30 million....
|
>> We are likely to see 40% of people not voting. Remember that in future when
>> someone whinges about "the wrong result". Ask them if they voted. And if they say
>> no, tell them it's their own fault...
I think many that don't vote don't have much opinion on anything in politics. At my current place of work, there's virtually no mention at all of any election at all. A few comments about this referendum but very little. Lots of people just aren't interested, I'm not sure anything would change that.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 16:17
|
>>
>> Have a look at General Election results. Usually 60-65% of people's views are ignored. Life
>> goes on. 55-45 will be a very clear win.
>>
We don't do clear wins in this country. The losers moan and carry on, the winners moan after a while because things they voted for haven't happened.
So everything just carries on as before, but we've all been given a licence to moan if we feel like it.
|
There is a requirement in some (non-UK) cases for more than a simple majority in order to change the status quo, although it's seldom as skewed as 80:20. I can't think of a case where less than 50 percent has resulted in a change, which seems to be what Movi wants.
Are you suggesting we make a proportional response to the answer to a binary question?
Snip 8< personal attack on a forum member removed
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 21:35
|
>> There is a requirement in some (non-UK) cases for more than a simple majority in
>> order to change the status quo, although it's seldom as skewed as 80:20.
Changing our constitution means 66.7% must vote for the ruling party. AND there's safeguards after that through the constitutional court.
|
>> A clear win, in my terms, should be at least 80-20
Clearly any football game with a scoreline less than 4-1 should be classified as a draw. :-)
|
|
An England 1-1 is normally seen as a win, so why not?
|
In football you usually get another chance in next week/month or at most in next 4 years time.
You won't get another referendum in 30 years at least.
|
|
You're arguing against yourself, Movi. You want to require a significant majority for change, even though you're vanishingly unlikely to get one?
|
I have always anticipated a Remain vote being a likely winner of the referendum, up until recently when it appeared to be a lot less clear... but I see now that Remain has edged forward again. I still think a Leave vote could happen, but accept it is less likely.
To start with I was a slight Out voter, but that has become more firm as time has gone on.
I agree with NoFM2R that a narrow win for Remain isn't a big problem....AS LONG AS it is remembered that a great big chunk of this country has huge problems with the current EU set up.
Some of the breath taking arrogance and condescension that has come from some of the Remain side needs to be binned. If 45% of the voters have big problems with something, they should at least listen to their fears, not ignore or belittle them.
I'm rather hoping that the UK's referendum has spurred others in the EU to question the path of the rabid Eurocrats... and that post referendum, we can move forward onto a different path than some in the EU intended.
Here's hoping.
|
>>I'm rather hoping that the UK's referendum has spurred others in the EU to question the path of the rabid Eurocrats... and that post referendum, we can move forward onto a different path than some in the EU intended.
That's what I'm hearing. And I think a narrow Remain is the way to exploit that.
|
|
My personal opinion is it will be remain and be fairly close. And the closeness means more changes are needed in the EU. The same will also be seen in other EU countries. It's not perfect and needs more changes. But I believe it's better starting from being in and demanding more changes rather than leaving and trying to get what we'd like on the outside.
|
>> My personal opinion is it will be remain and be fairly close. And the closeness
>> means more changes are needed in the EU. The same will also be seen in
>> other EU countries. It's not perfect and needs more changes. But I believe it's better
>> starting from being in and demanding more changes rather than leaving and trying to get
>> what we'd like on the outside.
>>
I wonder what sort of change and by what means?
|
|
Angela Merkel has already told us 'stay at the table and talk'. Jean-Claude Juncker has expressed very in-Eurocratic doubts over regulation and 'interference'. Other countries have their own minority Outie factions, which our Outies choose to ignore when trying to scare us with fantasies of compulsory bratwurst and lederhosen. There are limits and Europeans know this better than you may imagine. They even say your banana can be whatever shape you want.
|
>> Angela Merkel has already told us 'stay at the table and talk'. Jean-Claude Juncker has
>> expressed very in-Eurocratic doubts over regulation and 'interference'.
That's something that hasn't really been covered. For a bit of balance, I've seen many wishing to remain start of by saying 'I don't like parts of the EU and would like to see parts of it reformed' but don't say what reforms or how.
This isn't a question of you wdb, but something that hasn't really been covered.
|
How will you feel about the way that you perceive *your* "side" conducted themselves in this process?
I am mostly Remain and think that most of the politicians on the Remain side have been utter clowns and done far more harm than good.
Most of the non-politicians seem to have been reasonably sensibly, or at least well intentioned. (Accepting that I am shielded from most of the day to day nonsense).
|
Personally most politicians in the Referendum have been typical politicians.
Remember a PM called Blair: three wins on the trot for a man who clearly lied on Iraq.... as Chilcott will tell us...
If electors vote for clear liars, that's what they will get.
|
|
In the event of a win for Remain I think that there are going to be a huge number of angry Conservative voters who will be furious with Cameron & Osborne for the way they have been insulted and belittled just for having a different opinion to them over the EU. Presuming that they still want them to vote for them at the next election they are going to have to find a way of building bridges or at the next election there is a good chance that Jezza & Co will get the keys to number 10 & by the time he has finished a brexit recession will have seemed like a small price to have paid !
|
|
I'll give you 10:1 on a Corbyn led Labour Party winning the next election.
|
|
I'll give 10:1 that Corbyn is leader of the Labour part at the next election.
|
Do you mean 10:1 against, CGN? I think you could offer longer odds than that. Corbyn is clearly the answer to a question nobody has asked and has spectacularly failed to bring a united Labour Party to the rout of the regressive Leave campaign.
That was an open goal for him; he could have presented himself as the one in command, in contrast to Cameron's efforts to keep his own party together. Instead he's been invisible, and the Tories will have nearly four years to regroup and rearm against him.
Labour's best hope will be to choose a new leader this autumn, while the Tories are still locked in post-referendum recrimination. This will need a certain amount of pact-with-the-devil compromise, as is always the case, but it's a step they have to take.
|
What odds would you be offering then WdB - Make them long enough and I'll have a punt.
Outsiders do sometimes come through even if only because the rest of the field fall over. Remember Foinavon?
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 20:03
|
>>Remember Foinavon?
Wow. Co-incidence time.
Was in Liverpool over weekend for The Lad's girlfriend's 21st. One of meeting rooms signed from hotel reception was Foinaven. Did a momentary head scratch over why it was named after a not quite Munro and thought no more.
And 36hrs later C4P reminds the question and supplies the answer.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 20 Jun 16 at 20:38
|
>> What odds would you be offering then WdB - Make them long enough and I'll
>> have a punt.
You can't have a punt on it any more, because Ireland joined the Euro.
|
>> Remember Foinavon?
>>
Norton's Coin is the one which sticks in my memory (Cheltenham Gold Cup), 100-1 winner. Probably because I had £10 to win on the 16-1 horse which came in second by a nose. Put me off gambling for life that did.
|
>>Norton's Coin is the one which sticks in my memory (Cheltenham Gold Cup), 100-1 winner.
Not really apropos, but while we are waiting for the referendum result, I am reminded of the affair of Flockton Grey. I only remember it because of a tenuous connection - someone I had a slight business connection to was rumoured to have been in on the game (I never asked him about it, and his name does not appear in any of the references I can dig up. I was always rather wary when I met him).
Flockton Grey, a 2 year old that had never raced, was entered into a race at Leicester on a cold damp March Monday in 1982. It won by 20 lengths at 10-1 with over £200,000 of bets on it. The winning margin prompted an enquiry and bookmakers refused to pay out.
It emerged that the horse that ran was a ringer, a 3 year old that, had it raced as such would have been carrying about 3 stones more than it did.
The man convicted as the central figure in the scandal was later owner of Bridlington Town and Doncaster Rovers. Brid went bust and he was convicted of paying someone to burn down Rovers' stand to claim the insurance, and sent to prison.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flockton_Grey
theapprenticejockey.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/flockton-grey.html
|
>> Corbyn is clearly the answer to a question nobody has asked and has spectacularly failed
>> to bring a united Labour Party to the rout of the regressive Leave campaign.
>>
>> That was an open goal for him;... Instead he's
>> been invisible,
Agreed.
He probably thinks he's in a cleft stick. He either ignores the open goal and looks useless, or in effect lines up behind Cameron, whom his loyal Labour voters presumably destest.
And I don't suppose it helps that he has also been openly anti-EU himself, in contradiction of the official Labour position.
|
I think a win for remain can have 2 outcomes
1. A negotiation about EU for outies' concerns.
2. Sweep aside any outie concern as they have not lost in the referendum and no longer relevant.
My guess is that #2 will happen. EU will become even worse. Any outie concern will be dealt with "public rejected your concern" - irrespective of whatever the margin of remain win.
It will be also interesting to see how the wining camp treats the losing camp (including in this forum). This referendum has proven (based on polls so far) that nearly half of the people hold a different political view.
Last edited by: movilogo on Tue 21 Jun 16 at 09:47
|
It will be also interesting to see how the wining camp treats the losing camp (including in this forum)
As we always do. With amusement...:-)
|
It will be also interesting to see how the wining camp treats the losing camp (including in this forum)
Shouldn't that be how the winning camp treats the whining camp? Some of the whining has started already.
|
>> It will be also interesting to see how the wining camp treats the losing camp
>> (including in this forum)
>>
>> Shouldn't that be how the winning camp treats the whining camp? Some of the whining
>> has started already.
>>
There will be no "Winning" or "Losing" camp, because whatever the result we'll all be in it together.
We can then get on to discussing the next Greek bailout due in July...;-)
|
>>There will be no "Winning" or "Losing" camp
No, there won't be. Because whatever we end up doing, and whether or not I like the result, something over 40% of the people who cared enough to vote will have a result they fundamentally did not want.
So the Remains have to be careful about remaining, and the Leaves careful about leaving. Both need to remember that a sizable chunk of the country wanted something else.
For me, as someone who prefers to Remain, that means that significant attention needs to be paid to why the Leavers wanted to leave. Even the bigoted and prejudiced need to be considered.
It should be considered how many of the concerns of the Leave camp can be dealt with effectively whilst still Remaining.
It should also be considered that even those who did vote Remain are not necessarily 100% committed to everything.
And finally we should keep the issue at the forefront. We need the EU to know that if they get silly or ambitious, we'll either stop it or walk.
And should Leave win, then I'd hope that similar would apply.
It'll take an interested and involved electorate though, and I'm not sure how likely that is.
|
"Both need to remember that a sizable chunk of the country wanted something else."
There is no place for triumphalism; indeed, this ain't the League Championship where the whole world (apart from Alanovich?) wanted Leicester to win.
"We need the EU to know that if they get silly or ambitious, we'll either stop it or walk."
It took a change of government to put the brakes on our borough council.
|
>> this ain't the League Championship where the whole
>> world (apart from Alanovich?) wanted Leicester to win.
Yeah, boo. I only want my team to win, don't care about the rest. b***** Leicester took our place in the 1st Division in 1983. I can bear a grudge with the best of them.
;-)
|
>> There is no place for triumphalism
Oh surely there's room for a little bit. I intend having dinner and a nice bottle of Bordeaux in Maison Bleue courtesy of the bookmakers if Remain win.
A pint in the Nutshell with the dead cat if Leave win.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Tue 21 Jun 16 at 16:19
|
"I intend having dinner and a nice bottle of Bordeaux in Maison Bleue courtesy of the bookmakers if Remain win."
An excellent choice - and good for our local economy - but you'll have to smarten-up a bit ....... and take that straw out of your mouth.
;-)
|
|
Did the cat vote Leave and this is an act of retribution??
|
"Did the cat vote Leave and this is an act of retribution??"
The mummified cat in the Nutshell has been festering above ground for way too long ....... a bit like the EU.
|
The dead cat. At least they don't have to put him out at night
tinyurl.com/z5cslwf
|
>> So the Remains have to be careful about remaining, and the Leaves careful about leaving.
>> Both need to remember that a sizable chunk of the country wanted something else.
>>
>> For me, as someone who prefers to Remain, that means that significant attention needs to
>> be paid to why the Leavers wanted to leave.
I actually think my 'leave' point of view is not that far away from quite a few 'remain' people.
The only real difference being some of them hope by staying 'in' we can negotiate better with the EU and fight our country's corner in that fashion... whilst I considered that, but think it would be 'business as usual' and that the 'leave' point of view will be parceled up as all the racists and bigots viewpoint (or those too stupid to work it all out), which can nicely be ignored.
In many ways a just past the post 'in' with some seriously hard negotiations to follow could be quite good, although it would remain to be seen if that worked.
I voted 'out' though, because I think there are many within the EU who will not wear that and who have an ultimate plan not conducive to the good of this country.
Last edited by: Westpig on Tue 21 Jun 16 at 17:03
|
>> This is a placeholder for discussing events after the referendum.
Which hasn't happened until Thursday, so how can you have a discussion about events after it when it hasn't taken place yet?
From what I can see things are just being repeated here that are already in the other thread.
|
I thought it pointless too. A placeholder? So it needs a space which might have been used by something else?
Mind you, stuff being repeated in this debate? Say it ain't so!!
|
Is it more pointless to have a discussion about something which hasn't happened or have football results in a thread about the House of Lords?
It's all part of what makes this forum funky IMHO :-)
|
|
I can live with a win for Remain provided it is by a narrow margin - 52/48 would be ideal to keep everyone on their toes. A decisive victory such as 60/40 would be a disaster, giving the Brussels federalists ammunition to ignore the failings of the EU and press ahead for "Ever closer union".
|
For this very reason I rather prefer a wide margin whatever side wins.
If remain wins by a wide margin, then EU will go ahead with a closer union. Unless more and more common public feel the pain of EU people will not realize the drawbacks of EU.
Sadly fear propaganda works. People don't want to change status quo and lot of people will be very upset if house price falls. If Leave side loses, I shall attribute it to failing to show a Proof of Concept of how being outside of EU makes will make wages higher and jobs more secure.
|
>> If remain wins by a wide margin, then EU will go ahead with a closer
>> union.
Err no, missaprehension or out propaganda swallowed HL&S.
(1) UK as an opt out from ever close union (2) moves would require unanimity in Commission and Council which is not likely happen as other countries (Hungary, Denmark for two) are against.
In fact I'd say that, at least amongst countries outwith the Euro, closer union has passed it's high water mark.
|
High water has been replaced by an ebb tide, according to this Dutch article: www.clingendael.nl/publication/eu-must-reform-or-without-british
A view that greater integration is now more likely to be resisted, especially in northern Europe.
|
Damn your eyes, man! Don't let the truth get in the way of a bloomin' good populist rabble rouse! Where's my bloomin' gun? BAAAHHHHHHHHH! Nurse! Butler! Nurse! I've soiled myself again!
< /brexiteer >
;-)
Last edited by: Alanović on Wed 22 Jun 16 at 10:15
|
Sadly fear propaganda works.
On you [Movi], apparently.
Last edited by: WillDeBeest on Wed 22 Jun 16 at 10:32
|
|
No I am still voting to leave...
|
Still. Not. Getting. It.
};---)
|
If Leave side loses, I shall attribute it to failing to show a Proof of Concept of how being outside of EU makes will make wages higher and jobs more secure.
And you'll be right. Leave has failed to prove (OK, difficult for future events) or even to demonstrate a reasonable likelihood that any of its promises - even controlling immigration - have any substance at all. Davidson challenged Stewart and Johnson (no point asking Leadson who did nothing but grin and waffle) for the names of the international experts who back the Leave analysis. Nothing. Nobody. No answer.
|
>> I can live with a win for Remain provided it is by a narrow margin
>> - 52/48 would be ideal to keep everyone on their toes.
Hard to disagree. I do, but still. Not unreasonable of you.
>> A decisive victory such
>> as 60/40 would be a disaster, giving the Brussels federalists ammunition to ignore the failings
>> of the EU and press ahead for "Ever closer union".
>>
Total nonsense when you consider:
a) Our opt out from "ever closer union", our opt out from Schengen (not even an EU agreement) and our independent currency.
b) the words of Juncker as reported on Radio 4 this morning.
|
"The best argument against democracy is a five-minute conversation with the average voter."
Winston Churchill.
|
Interesting article by Joshua Rozenberg on legal implications/process following a vote for Brexit.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/21/legal-implications-britain-votes-leave-eu-brexit
As he points out there are already sufficient extant 'issues' around, among other things voter registration and eligibility, to sustain applications for Judicial Review of the process or applications to the Electoral Court.
God preserve us from a re-run!!
|
Survey up to 9pm yesterday - 52% Remain, 48% Leave, 12% "could still change their minds".
goo.gl/WrjWa2
|
>> Survey up to 9pm yesterday - 52% Remain, 48% Leave, 12% "could still change their
>> minds".
The survey got it spot on.
Just the wrong way round.
I think this is quite depressing.
Scotland wants to stay in the EU, I can see another referendum there, with the result that Scotland votes to come out of the UK. Despite all my jibes about Scots and Scotland, when the chips are down, I want the Jocks to remain in the UK, but I fear that it won't happen.
Northern Ireland wants to stay in the EU. A referendum there to come out of the UK and join with the Republic of Ireland? Very possible. Long term? That would be a good result and a logical result.
|
>>
>> Scotland wants to stay in the EU, I can see another referendum there, with the
>> result that Scotland votes to come out of the UK.
The easiest way would be for England and Wales to leave the UK.
|
>>>>
>> Scotland wants to stay in the EU, I can see another referendum there, with the
>> result that Scotland votes to come out of the UK. Despite all my jibes about
>> Scots and Scotland, when the chips are down, I want the Jocks to remain in
>> the UK, but I fear that it won't happen.
>>
>>>>
Scotland won't stay in the EU, they will have to apply to join and agree to adopt the Euro as part of the deal. Their application will be difficult, they will be applying as a dependent rather than a contributor and the EU has enough basket case economies to support as it is.
The most likely outcome is a breakup of the EU in it's present form and it's revival as a much looser trading block. It isn't only in Britain people are sick to death of it.
Last edited by: Robin O'Reliant on Fri 24 Jun 16 at 06:24
|
This thread closed. Rather than having two separate threads running which are discussing the same thing, continue the conversation in the EU/In/Out threads.
|
Post referendum discussion - commerdriver
