Non-motoring > Coronavirus - Volume 5   [Read only]
Thread Author: VxFan Replies: 151

 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - VxFan

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Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 18 Mar 20 at 02:13
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - legacylad
Hola. Costa Blanca calling
Local beach cordoned off despite only 15/20 people max being on it any one time since January. Swimming not allowed.
Walked 17kms today around & up n over Puig campana that big hill behind Bennidorm. A lot of seriously fit Fell runners out after today’s mountain marathon cancelled.
Meat, fruit & veg supplies almost non existent in local supermarkets. Not a problem as we have loads of booze. And ice cream. Lockdown expected from 8AM Monday.
Car rental changeover tomorrow at Alicante airport. Goodbye and good riddance KA+.
Then self isolate. Morning walk around the villa pool. Press ups. Jigsaws. Watch Neighbours on tv. Check out the feral cats. Drink Yorkshire tea. Biscuits.
Happy days
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - No FM2R
WTF are they stopping people swimming?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - legacylad
Yes. Myself and friends had a tough walk up a big hill today in hot sun (Puig Campana behind Benidorm,...we did 1100 metres ascent on our walk..helps increase the thirst level) friends did a 10k morning run, ducked under the tape on the sealed off beach for a swim afterwards, then got hauled out by the Guardia Civil. WTF danger to their fellow humans are they causing by swimming in the sea ?
Lockdown from 8AM Monday. Might buy an old car and make a break for freedom with 3 friends to Santander/Bilbao.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Robin O'Reliant
>> WTF are they stopping people swimming?
>>

For goodness sake man, think of the fish.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - zippy
Spain...

One of Miss Z's friends and colleagues is an Indian national.

Her visa allows her to be out of the UK for 1 month.

She is desperately trying to get a flight back to the UK as she has been in Spain for nearly 2 weeks and if she gets quarantined out there and her total stay is over one month then she may not be allowed back to the UK to practice.

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - legacylad
Halibut and Jehovah springs to mind
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - No FM2R
>> Halibut and Jehovah springs to mind

Funny, as I read that the doorbell rang. Some of his witnesses looking for English speakers wanting to be saved from the virus.

I explained that regrettably I didn't know any.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - No FM2R
>>For goodness sake man, think of the fish.

Sounds like a load of carp to me.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - legacylad
We’re due to fly home 27/03 with Jet2, but they’ve suspended their flights. The Ryanair website shows earlier flights back to the U.K. but if I were to book one of them how do I know they won’t be similarly affected ?
I suppose there are far worse things than being confined to the rental villa as of 8AM tomorrow...unless food shopping. Don’t know whether driving into the mountains to go walking each day, and if stopped by the police explain that I’m a hunter gatherer, would go down well.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Zero
www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl6tTwxzCi8&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1PBi6UQOQ8ieISBCJu-cHFO_0bz48v4BB4xivcspfOTQO2cxqcg3tVyyQ&app=desktop
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Bromptonaut
>> We’re due to fly home 27/03 with Jet2, but they’ve suspended their flights.

Jet 2 are still returning passengers. A 757 left LBA for ALC at 07:55 today and looks as though it will be back mid afternoon. There's a second arrival later as well presumably using either a ALC based machine or a 'W' operation from one of their other bases.

I think from messages yesterday suggestion was that they would be contacting pax to make return arrangements.

tinyurl.com/stj35ph (jet2 facebook page).
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - legacylad
Thanks Bromp
2 friends have just left our villa catching that flight.
I’m following shortly as I need to change the car rental and move rental companies from Wiber to Firefly
I’ll check out Alicante airport...might be chaos there. I’ve got my passport & wallet and in a worst case scenario could get a flight and leave everything behind in the villa! I’m due back in May!
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - smokie
Here in Portugal we're keeping our ears open for news, and have now made some contacts who will feed us info but I haven't yet found a reliable local news or government site with up to date info on. I've not received any info from Easyjet but in the Covid bit on their site they don't specifically discuss Portugal.

We've heard that beaches are apparently now closed to groups and bars and restaurants have to close by 21:30, none of which has any major effect on us.

Our plan is that if a full lockdown is announced then we will make every get home asap but until then we will sit tight. We have another 2.5 weeks to go. We have established three different accommodations we can definitely use (including this one) pretty much indefinitely if we get caught out and have to stay, but I'd need to sort out extending car hire, travel insurance (!!) and UK airport car parking. The villa with the pool would be favourite if they finish the current reworking of the pool! :-)

Most days we go walking for a few hours in the morning, usually driving out in the countryside where you rarely see anyone else, then spend the afternoon kicking around the apartment, on the roof terrace if it's warm enough ( - it usually is). We often drop into a beachside bar for a beer and baguette after the walking so we may or may not continue with that. Sometimes we've gone out for an evening meal and/or a beer or two but mostly not, so we can live without that.

I have no real grounds for saying so but I feel less at-risk here than I would at home, and costs are pretty much the same (assuming extended accomodation is fire sale pricing or free of course!) , so staying wouldn't really be a hardship except missing family and friends.

UPDATE: Beaches are not shut apparently. We did 7 miles along the boardwalk to the next village and back. I wonder if it helps that I'm holding my breath as I pass other people. As I'm not yet infected it can't be doing any harm... :-)

Some shops in the town have closed for voluntary quarantine - local souvenir shop for one (not that I've ever used it and I guess it's not that busy at this time of year anyway). This is really going to hurt a lot of businesses, small and large. Life may take years to return to "normal".
Last edited by: smokie on Sun 15 Mar 20 at 14:21
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - CGNorwich
Coronavirus: Isolation for over-70s 'within weeks' www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51895873

Looks like a lot of us won’t be going out this summer. Best sign up fo Netflix.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - sherlock47
Just received a marketing email from RyanAir offering summer discounted flights to most of Europe. Book by 18/03/20 for travel between 01/05/20 and 31/08/20

MO'L obviously knows something we don't.


But they are cheap!

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - legacylad
Changed my rental car at Alicante this lunchtime. Wiber ( off site) to Firefly. Not a problem...transfer bus to the terminal, no queues at the rental desks, usual sales patter re extra insurance, go to multi storey, find car ( ex Sixt Fabia), check over, drive back to base.
Quite a few car rental companies were closed. I met a friend unexpectedly at Altet filling up with fuel, which is very close to the airport. Before the pump would discharge fuel you had to hand over the car keys in the night ops ‘safe’ where the card machine was. Once paid you got the car keys back. He returned his rental to OKCars, handed over the keys, then they wouldn’t rent him another which was prepaid. He caught the bus from the airport to Benidorm, then taxi to his apartment a few miles outside.
Provisions ( bread, milk) from the large petrol station were being handed through shutters as no one allowed inside. Trying to pass baguettes through shutters was quite comical to watch.

The local police were telling people to get off the streets and go home, despite lockdown not being implemented until 8AM Monday. My pal was stopped by them whilst walking to get bread.

Dog walkers are exempt, so I’m going to try and rent a rescue dog tomorrow from Akira

A few lazy days by our freezing villa pool were on the cards but rain is now forecast. Drat.
New Ryanair flights now purchased for Sunday 22/03....I should have changed my Jet2 flight to the same day but stupidity took over.
Assuming they’re flying of course
Literally convoys of camper vans heading up the AP7 this afternoon heading in the Valencia direction....every single one Italian and French registered. Maybe a mass exodus before borders close.
Battening down the hatches and drinking gin. Garlic prawns tonight, followed by mince, peas, home made potato wedges and a bucket of wine. Not driving anywhere soon!
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Netsur
I am currently stranded in Israel.

I can leave if I can find a flight (which there are some to the UK), but if I want to return I have to spend 14 days in isolation.

Why am I here? Because my 85 year old father who lives here, has had an operation and as his only child I have come out to care for someone who was until a week ago, totally independent.

There are others who would be willing to come out and also look after him (like my wife and a close friend), but they all face the same problem; when they arrive they face isolation, so they are no real help.

In the meantime, last night the country appeared to be shut down. No shopping centres open, no sports/health clubs open, no gatherings of more than ten people, and they should be at least 2m apart from each other. All houses of prayer closed as are restaurants and cafes.. Although there was an announcement that supermarkets, banks, petrol stations and pharmacies would be open there was some panic buying. Today however it was fairly calm and most smaller shops were open. In the centre of town it felt normal apart from closed cafes etc. However takeaways were busy, and some had put some chairs on the pavement....

But the effect (like in Spain) on the tourist industry is massive. Hotels are not able to open dining rooms so most are now empty. All the gap year students have left; friends who live here and went on foreign holidays are now returning to quarantine, with food packages supplied by children or neighbours. Two couples went on a cruise from Cape Town, up the east cost of Africa, to the Maldives, India and Sri Lanka. Nowhere permitted the ship to dock and the whole ship was forced to alight in Oman and find their own way home. After a disappointing holiday they now face 14 days in isolation.

However given the size of the population here, the number of patients with the virus is fairly low, the result of strict measures brought into force earlier than most European countries and according the Prime Minister last night, modelled on Taiwan.

Whatever, it is very isolating being here despite being able to drive around, when I really would like to be with my family (or them with me). A holiday here planned for three weeks time is now effectively off - my wife's flight cancelled and the children's likely to be in a few days.

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - No FM2R
>>Battening down the hatches and drinking gin. Garlic prawns tonight, followed by mince, peas, home made potato wedges and a bucket of wine. Not driving anywhere soon!

Time just to be philosophical about it. Sit back, relax and enjoy the time as much as you can. Little to be achieved with stress, worry or panic.

This, too, shall pass.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Netsur
It will. The question is whether we will have passed on before it passes....
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - smokie
Only minor developments here in Portugal today but we are now debating whether to book a flight for later this week or just wait till our booked flight on 4 April.

Our current thinking is that if the borders go into lockdown (and the land border with Spain may already be) then we will have a small window where possibly a rescue flight may get us out.

I can get a reasonably priced flight for Friday (though cost isn't a major issue) which cuts our break short by two weeks. But in my mind this doesn't really do much except cut our holiday short. There is supposed to be an announcement re borders tomorrow so it really might just be a waste of time and money to make that change.

It is fairly locked down here but we think we may still be able to get out to walk and shop, and our flat is really quite comfortable.

The other minor consideration is that if I go home early by choice then the insurance won't pay anything whereas if it is forced then they ought to pay the wasted accommodation & car hire, and any additional flight costs. We have friends with whom we can leave some luggage if necessary.



       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - smokie
My further research last night showed hat the land border with Portugal is locked down as of yesterday, but details are yet to be published.

There is a further govt meeting here in Portugal on Wed to decide whether to escalate the threat level. This could close all borders immediately (and of curse may be brought forward).

SWMBO got a touch of the frights overnight so I have now changed our booking for a flight home this Friday evening, two weeks earlier than planned. If the flight doesn't go ahead we still have a car and accommodation to the 3 April, and accom beyond that if needed.


(I think we are agreed that the risk is probably significantly higher in the UK than here but she doesn't want to get ill over here, and she wants to be nearer family. However if we had to stay we are absolutely OK with that too.)
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 16 Mar 20 at 09:56
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - legacylad
Easier said than done. A few years ago my immune system collapsed. Hospitalised for a few weeks, caught cellulitis, came out on crutches. Took me a year to recover.
The rubbish immune system remains and CV is the last thing I need. After 2 great days out in the mountains where I was most unlikely to catch anything I’m self isolating with a vengeance !
It is what it is.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - zippy
>> Dog walkers are exempt, so I’m going to try and rent a rescue dog tomorrow
>> from Akira

A dog is for life, not just for virus!

:-)
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - VxFan
>> Coronavirus: Isolation for over-70s 'within weeks'

How's that going to work if other people younger than 70 also live with them?

Are they going to cart off all the over 70's and put them into some sort of refuge, or does everyone else living under the same roof also have to self isolate?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - No FM2R
They say that entire household insulation will be the phase after but that for the first phase it's just the older ones.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Zero
>> They say that entire household insulation will be the phase after but that for the
>> first phase it's just the older ones.

Is that three phase insulation?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Zero
>> >> Coronavirus: Isolation for over-70s 'within weeks'
>>
>> How's that going to work if other people younger than 70 also live with them?

Its a recommendation, not a mandatory instruction because its unenforceable. It will be based on how much spare capacity the NHS has at any time. At the end of the day, its a risk assessment the individual has to make on a need per day basis.
Last edited by: Zero on Sun 15 Mar 20 at 20:59
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - CGNorwich
I think you will find that it will be an instruction albeit ultimately unenforceable. I guess that when it comes down to it spending the summer at home will be a preferable alternative to picking up the virus and dying coughing my lungs up in some converted makeshift hospital. I don’t think that most people have yet grasped how awful the next few months are going to be.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Zero
or possibly grasped how much of a media circus it is.

At one point, the total number of deaths went from 10 to 20. How was that reported?

DEATH RATE DOUBLES (in caps)
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - CGNorwich
I hope your optimism is well founded but my fear is that it is not.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Rudedog
Heard a snippet on the radio that apparently the Gov are going to ask the car industry to change production and start making ventilators!!

What a joke!

ITU vets aren't my thing but theatre ones are, and they can't be put together very quickly. Thirty years ago most of the ones used in the UK were British made by BOC/Ohmeda, totally bomb proof all stainless steel and could be field striped by one us operating technicians.

Over the years these companies merged with other European companies so we had Datex machines made in Finland/USA, then (and now) the real Rolls Royce machines were made by Siemens/Drager (German).

But then about 5-6 years ago the bean counters came, companies like GE healthcare sold out to Mindray and quality took a major nose dive, plastics parts that constantly broke or required several weeks delay for parts to arrive.

So now in our Trust all of the vents and monitors are made by Mindray..... now guess where they are made???

China of course.

Complete sound-bite to me.

Bit like all of the retired nurses being brought back into service... most of who will be over 65-70 and fall into the vulnerable class or could shortly be stopped from going out, let alone have had their registration/validation lapse.

Alas, I don't think I'll be allowed to work from home..








       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - tyrednemotional
>> Heard a snippet on the radio that apparently the Gov are going to ask the
>> car industry to change production and start making ventilators!!
>>
...you'd think they'd do better asking James Dyson......... ;-)


(Oh, alright then. Maybe not)
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Manatee
William Morris made cabinet respirators ('iron lung' machines) in his car factory. Maybe that gave them the idea.
       
 Branson bail out - Manatee
Branson wants the government to sign off £7.5bn. to rescue airlines.

       
 Branson bail out - No FM2R
It won't be enough.

However, airlines being what airlines are, they can spot a good day for bad news at 10,000 yards. Stand by for closures and redundancies for people who will either never be re-employed or at least not on their current Ts&Cs - many legacy problems are about to be addressed.

And it will be 100% legal, 100% justifiable and won;t raise an eyebrow.
       
 Branson bail out - Zero
Branson is a whining git about everything and thinks he should be treated differently, he would want Virgin Airways bailed out but will complain like buck if BA gets a bailout too.
       
 Branson bail out - No FM2R
>>Branson is a whining git about everything and thinks he should be treated differently,

Yes. I had experience of him in the early days of Virgin Mobile before it was sold to Virgin Media (which is not a Virgin company, it simply licenses the name).

I'd say your summary of him was spot on. Though you did miss smug and arrogant, so perhaps 9/10.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 15 Mar 20 at 20:07
       
 Branson bail out - sooty123
www.bbc.com/news/business-51896169

Looks like the train companies are of a similar mind.
       
 Branson bail out - No FM2R
I wonder if the Unions are smart enough to see what's coming down the line.

Though I'm not sure they can do much about it.
       
 Branson bail out - Zero
>> www.bbc.com/news/business-51896169
>>
>> Looks like the train companies are of a similar mind.

Thats an easy fix, Gov just needs to suspend contractual timetable services, x % of £fee during crisis, and the Train Operating companies can drop to a weekend timetable, and the resulting drop in overtime will help. During that period network rail could catch up on permanent way maintenance.
       
 Branson bail out - No FM2R
>>network rail could catch up on permanent way maintenance.

*Excellent* point.

And presumably they could let the Veteran / Restoration / Whatever you call them have free run of an awful lot of rail?
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 15 Mar 20 at 20:42
       
 Branson bail out - Zero

>> And presumably they could let the Veteran / Restoration / Whatever you call them have
>> free run of an awful lot of rail?
>
They could in theory, but based n whats happening now (empty pubs, cinemas, theatres, etc) i suspect the market wont be there. Mrs Z went to cinema last week, and they virtually had the place to themselves.
       
 Branson bail out - Zero
>>
>> >> And presumably they could let the Veteran / Restoration / Whatever you call them
>> have
>> >> free run of an awful lot of rail?
>> >
>> They could in theory, but based n whats happening now (empty pubs, cinemas, theatres, etc)
>> i suspect the market wont be there. Mrs Z went to cinema last week, and
>> they virtually had the place to themselves.

The preservation railtour industry is shut down. Preserved railway galas cancelled, mainline steam and heritage rail tours cancelled or postponed.

All my upcoming dog shows till at least end of May have been cancelled, and my judging appointments ditto, my group sessions with my professional trainer the same.

My diary has become suddenly very very empty
       
 Branson bail out - Lygonos

>>Branson wants the government to sign off £7.5bn. to rescue airlines.


Ha ha ha.

Suck it, Branson.

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/11/28/nhs-pays-virgin-threatens-sue-losing-contract/
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - No FM2R
Oh look, it's got an opinion....

www.bbc.com/sport/football/51896488
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Zero
well he should know about pigs.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - tyrednemotional
...my wife just came in and said "We are going to have to self-immolate!".

I was about to say "Don't you mean self-isolate?" when I saw her taking petrol cans out of the car boot...... :-O
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - legacylad
Could always try self flagellate.
Lockdown takes on a whole new meaning
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - legacylad
Berkshire porker.
Very apt name....referring to Zeddos reply
Last edited by: legacylad on Sun 15 Mar 20 at 20:15
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - No FM2R
>>Berkshire porker.

I think I know her.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - tyrednemotional
>> >>Berkshire porker.
>>
>> I think I know her.
>>

....Virgin....?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - No FM2R

>> ....Virgin....?


...on the ridiculous, perhaps.
       
 Effect on business close to home - Netsur
Just been speaking to my financial controller. The effect on property service companies is likely to be enormous, especially those with a high percentage of turnover related to transactions (sales & lettings, valuations on the back of purchases and such like). We could see a significant reduction in turnover, although hopefully at least 60% of the business is recurring work.

Our first step will be a 25% reduction in salaries from 1st April across the board.... It's either that or lose staff. Horrifying, I don't want to do it, especially the majority of the staff who are hard working and dedicated. But if they want to have jobs in 2021, they have to accept (as do I) there will be hardships for a period.

What a nightmare. I can't even be there to deliver the bad news. I'll try to do it via video link.
       
 Effect on business close to home - No FM2R
>>We could see a significant reduction in turnover,

So not certain?

>>Our first step will be a 25% reduction in salaries

But absolutely certain?

Consider what you will do if one member of staff refuses to accept that reduction or later says that they were forced into it.

From a legal perspective then redundancy is your safe course, albeit potentially cruel on an individual level.

Make sure you have a *very* good HR lawyer and go through it with him before delivering the message.

Also, and I might be quite wrong, didn't you sell the company? Or part of it? In which case be careful of the limits of your authority and the implications of and any responsibility for bad decisions, or decisions that are seen as less good in hindsight. Cover your a*** with documentation.
       
 Effect on business close to home - zippy
>>25% reduction in salary...

Redundancy will be payable on the new lower salary if accepted, I believe.

Some staff may choose to take redundancy now at a higher rate, rather than a lower one in the future.

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 4 - Kevin
>Oh look, it's got an opinion....

I wonder who he borrowed it from?

"I know how I feel. If any of my family get infected through me because I've had to play when it's not safe, and they get seriously ill, I'd have to think hard about ever playing again. I would never forgive the authorities."

So he's happy to play with hookers while his Mrs and kids are away but scared to kick a ball around 75,000 sq ft of grass with 21 other blokes.

Obviously he had to do it because if he got fired he might have to wait a few weeks before his benefit cheques started coming in.

BTW. Is his head on upside down in that photo?
       
 Wuhan: Life under Lockdown (BBC tonight) - Manatee
30 minutes.
Very interesting and quite sobering.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000gj5f
       
 Wuhan: Life under Lockdown (BBC tonight) - Lygonos
tinyurl.com/yx7lhhn8


Why do you think HMG are scoping for ventilators?

If you need a ventilator and there isn't one available you WILL die.

Matt Handcock says we have 5,000 ventilators but need "many times that".

These guys know what their computer projections are showing.


www.nytimes.com/2020/03/12/world/europe/12italy-coronavirus-health-care.html
Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 16 Mar 20 at 00:20
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - sherlock47
Whilst this is behind a paywall, limited access is available.

www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/


What is interesting is that in the UK presentations of flattening, the peak of the flattened curve is always shown to only reach (ie not exceed) the nhs capacity!

I am surprised that the model above does not yet have the ability to reflect the mortality rate, with dots turning black and dropping to the bottom of the display.




       
 CV, simulations of spread. - Manatee
It's pretty obvious that the sombrero diagram - I assume that's what you're talking about, I've learned it's a waste of time clicking washingtonpost links - is an illustration of the principle and not to scale.

Given the NHS would probably struggle to treat 20,000 (there are c. 5,000 ventilators) the line for NHS capacity looks too high anyway. The Italian health service was on its knees with half that number.

We're staying out of the way after this weekend, because we can, provided we can get supplies via supermarket supplies either delivered or via click and collect.
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - smokie
"We're staying out of the way after this weekend, because we can, provided we can get supplies via supermarket supplies either delivered or via click and collect."

That's my plan when (if) I get back form Portugal. Not even a beer at the pub (potentially infected) with my mates (also potentially infected). I don't usually get paranoid but I don't see the point in taking unnecessary risks.
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - legacylad
Same scenario for me smokie. When and if. Hopefully on an earlier flight this Sunday with Ryanair. Without being too paranoid, full flights ex Alicante could potentially be returning to the U.K. with infected passengers.
Mas Y Mas, a large supermarket nearby in Benitachell were only allowing 15 customers in at any one time this morning according to what I’ve been told. I’ve just sneaked out with bags full of rubbish to the local bins and not been arrested by the Guardia Civil.
The only sound, apart from feral cats and birds, is building work continuing at a new build multi million € villa just around the corner.
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - God
This is what shocked me yesterday (my beach!) same today.

www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/espana/canarias/santa-cruz-de-tenerife/playa-las-vistas.html

'Spose it's the same with all beaches. Being thick, I can't see what's wrong with peops being on a beach in all that luvly ultra violet.
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - helicopter
Was speaking with a friend in Los Christianos this morning,she and hisband are in the apartment from which I returned last week and had another two weeks to go.
Apparently complete lockdown on the beaches and promenades..Guardia everywhere enforcing the lockdown, restaurants closed and only food shops and pharmacies open.
Telly has gone on the blink ...

What I was calling for was to wish her a happy birthday!

She has got an Easyjet rescue flight on Thursday and a bottle of Champagne in the fridge so its not all bad news..

       
 CV, simulations of spread. - God
>>Guardia everywhere enforcing the lockdown

Article in the Wail today about a woman in Mallorca being arrested for, um, sunbathing.

We live in interesting times :(
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - martin aston
It’s interesting that so many of you are abroad. It occurs to me that most European countries have a lot more police (and allied organisations) than we have in the UK. If it gets to a strict enforcement scenario in UK I can’t see where the police would come from. It’s going to rely on co-operation.

Speaking to my over 70 age friends and relatives there is a spread from people who are already isolating right through to those ignoring it completely. Worst are friends of my mum, in their eighties. They “feel alright” so they went to their Scottish country dancing last night for a couple of hours physical contact in the company of a couple of dozen like-minded old timers.

       
 CV, simulations of spread. - smokie
SWMBO joined a FB group when we were a bit bereft of info. There's a couple of "older ladies" (estimated early 70s) on there who have been discussing that they aren't going to be told what to do, and when they can or can't go out, and if the govt starts tracking them by mobile hone then they will leave them at home. They (and others) don't seem to realise it's for their own good as much as anything!!

This is the reason I will be self isolating for a bit when I get back: I'm just not comfortable that people in the UK (maybe including my mates) are taking it seriously enough.

Just been on booking weekly grocery delivery slots for the three weeks after I get back (if I do, on Friday!). Seems daft not to.
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 16 Mar 20 at 16:49
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - CGNorwich
"If it gets to a strict enforcement scenario in UK I can't see where the police would come from. It's going to rely on co-operation."


When people cant even be persuaded to stop panic buying toilet rolls I cant see that happening. There will are always going to get a proportion of the people who will say "nobody's going to tell me what to do"and there will be those like your country dancing friends who will just ignore the advice.

I see that they are now saying that over 70s in self isolation can go for a walk or walk the dog so that sounds a bit more manageable. I don't really see why you cant go for a drive either


       
 CV, simulations of spread. - Bromptonaut
>> I see that they are now saying that over 70s in self isolation can go
>> for a walk or walk the dog so that sounds a bit more manageable. I
>> don't really see why you cant go for a drive either

I think the spokesman or Minister who suggested 'self isolation' for the over seventies has now recognised that he was a bit slack with language. Self isolation has been used in a fairly precise sense to cover self quarantine. My son and his partner are doing that at present because he has had a cough/cold and temperature*.

What is suggested for the over seventies is that they consider stepping back from close contact social activity - pub nights, luncheon club, country dancing or whatever. They can still go to for walks, drives do the allotment etc. Those who are still working can presumably still work or volunteer. I've had several over 70 and one or two over 80 volunteer colleagues.

If some decide to carry on dancing or whatever, even though stopping 'is for their own good' then so what? It's on same level as cycling bare headed; a risk assessment for the individual.

*He's 99% sure it's just another winter cold, he always suffers with worse cough than others because of his asthma. Work sent him home on Friday and he's concluded that self isolating covers the CV base and avoids another period of sick leave with a possible tousle over 'trigger points' because he's had other days off recently. .
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - smokie
"If some decide to carry on dancing or whatever, even though stopping 'is for their own good' then so what?"

You ignore that they may have caught the virus and be passing it onto people they walk past in the street. That''s a key reason why we dithered over whether to come back from Portugal - people in the UK will always justify their antisocial behaviour.

Today we had to queue outside a moderately large size supermarket as they were only letting in a number at a time. No fuss, no arguments, they just did it. and seemed to be keeping their distance from each other in the queue too.
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - tyrednemotional
>> "If some decide to carry on dancing or whatever, even though stopping 'is for their
>> own good' then so what?"
>>
>> You ignore that they may have caught the virus and be passing it onto people
>> they walk past in the street.........

I don't think that's the point at issue, many/most are going to catch it anyway. It is all a matter of timing.

What they are trying to achieve is flattening the demand on the NHS from the worst cases, which are likely to be in the old/at risk group.

The more that this group continues life "as normal", then that demand is unlikely to be significantly flattened, and the start of the peak will also be earlier earlier.
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - Manatee
>>If some decide to carry on dancing or whatever, even though stopping 'is for their own good' then so what? It's on same level as cycling bare headed; a risk assessment for the individual.


Yes and no. By continuing to circulate you might not only catch it but pass it on.
       
 CV, simulations of spread. - PeterS
I’m in Kenya at the moment, and was going to be flying back on the 29th. However they had their first case diagnosed Friday, and closed the border for all but Kenyan citizens, which is fine because I’m here. However, Nairobi doesn’t seem to me to be the best place if the virus is spreading rapidly, and world wide the aviation industry is shutting down.

I’m not convinced that anyone will be flying to Africa by the end of the month. So I’ve now got a seat on tomorrow’s BA flight back to LHR. Well, it’s actually Wednesday because it departs at 00:05, but tomorrow sounds better ;) I will be self isolating in First because then I’m 2m away from the next person...also, it was only $503 dollars more :)

If I hadn’t been able to get an earlier flight my plan was to go to the coast south of Mombasa - fewer people, better beaches and hot!

My parents are in their 70s and seem to be doing self isolation light. So they’re not going out for lunches, dinner etc, or meeting up with people. But they’re still going out for walks, drives, and shopping when necessary.
       
 One Bit of Good News - zippy
The economy is going to take a hit, like it or not, but figures in from my portfolio of clients shows stock levels up, because of preparations for Brexit. So supplies may not be as short as expected in some instances.
       
 One Bit of Good News - smokie
Good, but I suppose that depends on supply logistics holding up (and the general public getting over the panic buying thing)
       
 One Bit of Good News - BiggerBadderDave
I might buy a hearse. I like to be in demand.
       
 One Bit of Good News - God
I tuned a couple of hearses back in the day, a Ford in St Leo O/S and a Daimler in Blackfriars.

Gave 'em a road test afterwards - felt dead chuffed.
       
 One Bit of Good News - Robin O'Reliant
>> The economy is going to take a hit, like it or not, but figures in
>> from my portfolio of clients shows stock levels up, because of preparations for Brexit. So
>> supplies may not be as short as expected in some instances.
>>
>>
The owner of a local restaurant came in the shop this morning, he's had three cancellations for 30 strong group bookings that were due in the next couple of weeks and walk in custom is also down. An hotel nearby lost a large group booking for next weekend and a local cycling club have cancelled a meal out for 25 members that was also due next week.

This is on top of a poor winter because of the weather and large scale roadworks that have disrupted the area since the end of the summer. In an area that relies heavily on tourism this is going to have a major effect, there are many pubs, cafes and hotels which are not going to survive a downturn of this scale if it lasts into the summer.
       
 Coronavirus -self isolation - henry k
On Thursday I decided that SWMBO and I will be in self isolation, probably for a couple of months or so.
My son and daughter agree with us and will stay away apart from shopping on the doorstep.
I will risk newspaper and milk deliveries.
I need a notice for the front door, " Rugger Orf ! " is the first suggestion.
Time to beef up my comms.
I have a an Amazon Echo Show (1st Generation) and meanwhile I will re-install my USB web cam. Maybe time to get a cheap smartphone too but no plans for twittering.

I guess I should start and run the car and move it frequently ?
I cannot take it for a blast so warm it up then its a few feet forward and a few feet back is the only regular alternative- Oh joy! My son might come round and exercise it.

My daughter after two months wandering the world has just finished nine days self isolation.
Her experience was enlightening but she avoided cabin fever.
The virus test was negative and she is back to her hospital with patients.
She guessed she was clear but great to have the results.
       
 Coronavirus -self isolation - Zero
At least its going to resolve the elderly health care crisis we were heading for.
       
 Coronavirus -self isolation - Zero
Daves been very quiet, has his ceiling collapsed and been suffocated under hundreds of rolls of toilet paper?
       
 Coronavirus -self isolation - VxFan
No, been at the hospital most of the day having my varicose veins sorted out for the 2nd time.
       
 Coronavirus -self isolation - smokie
"Oh joy! My son might come round and exercise it." If you might be "sharing" the car with an unclean make sure you and/or him wear gloves!!!
       
 Coronavirus -self isolation - henry k
If you might be "sharing" the car with an unclean make sure you and/or him wear gloves!!!
Two options?
Leave the car to incubate for a week after.
Ask him to wear a hazmat suit and kit and scare the locals. :-)
       
 Coronavirus -self isolation - Robin O'Reliant
I don't see any harm in going out for a walk, a bike ride or a drive. As far as I'm aware the virus is passed on by direct contact, either droplets after a cough or sneeze or physical contact with someone who has it on their hands.

Passing people on the street isn't a problem unless I'm missing something?
       
 Coronavirus -self isolation - God
The virus can survive for up to 3 days on stainless steel, but just a few hours on copper, so Westpig should be OK.
       
 Coronavirus -self isolation - smokie
My understanding is a little different Robin. It is ingested through nose/eyes/mouth as far as I remember.

You do not need actual contact with an infected person, just breathing their exhaust could be enough. Coughs and sneezes expel it quicker and spread it wider. We've been avoiding walking behind groups for much distance to avoid slipstream.

A main concern is also that a person who has the virus may have touched something which you later (up to at least 72 hours later I think) touch (shopping trolley handle, door handle, tap is a washroom etc) and then without thinking you touch you face with your hand. Washing hands long and hard with soap is usually being followed here as far as I see.

Over here (Portugal) they are recommending leaving a 2m gap when passing people, or sitting with them. Restaurants have an order to decrease the number (density) of seating to achieve greater separation (and all bars and restaurants have to close by 9pm). People are tending to avoid walking too close to each other when passing and, as I said earlier, in the queue outside the supermarket people were definitely giving each other space.

The land and air border with Spain is fully closed (except essential workers - definitely no tourists), and cross border trains are cancelled. If they close the airports we are stuck here as there is no other way out.

Essential journeys only (work, looking after the elderly and shopping are the allowed ones) so out normal pastime of driving into the countryside for a walk is effectively out. We did walk along the beach this morning, which we can reach without a drive.

Schools are closed here and medical centre (appointment only!) doors are locked and you are only admitted at your appointed time. Most of the public services have been at least partially shut down and many shops around here have voluntarily closed, including the main beach bar.

Maybe all of the above explains why I think the UK course of (in)action is inadequate, and why I would really have preferred to stay here at least till the appointed end of my holiday - but without knowing when I might get back it seemed a slightly rash thing to do. I am half hoping they pull down the shutters before my Friday flight!!

How the UK approach can be right when every other country is doing something different beggars belief even though the theory may hold some water. It's a risky thing to be testing a theory on.
       
 Coronavirus Boris presents... - sherlock47
In his state of the nation speech this afternoon, it was somewhat worrying that his Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, does not know what an 'inflection' on a curve is!

At about 17.18 when talking about "where London is" on the curve.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Bobby
My dad is 88 and was at death's door about 5 years ago with pneumonia. We all remember how the Consultant spoke to him and said that at his age the patient very rarely survived but when they saw how firmly he was holding on to his iphone they realised there was plenty of life left in him.

At some point after the event we discussed the whole episode and he explained that he had came to terms with the fact that he was going to die and as someone with a strong religious belief, he had taken some strength from his beliefs.

Now thhe reality of the situation is that we need to be prepared for the fact that if he catches this virus, realistically speaking he will most likely not be given any ventilator etc. He will just become another statistic "with underlying health issues". That is absolutely brutal to hear and understand and dad iis confused about the whole scenario now. And I can see in him that he is thinking that it is inevitable. Which is hard to take.

He lives on his own and he is kept up to date with the numerous family whatsapp chats but undertandably they are currently purely about Corona virus and over course of last 2 days, 3 of his grandkids have basically been told they are losing their jobs.

I am going up to visit him tomorrow as I do every Tues evening. Ironically I feel that this may be safer than it normally is as we will both be absolutely OCD about the whole hygiene rules etc.

Really tough times ahead.

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - smokie
Yes, certainly very tough times.

I don't know how many here have investments in the stock market but they've taken a real pounding this week and last, not just due to the virus.

Companies seem to be taking it as an opportunity to downsize ( - Mark referred to this a few days back I think) and make other unpalatable (and probably overdue) decisions - can't say I blame them really but talk about kicking a man when he's down!!

I think you can forget about foreign holidays for a bit, by air at least. Seems most carriers are warning of very dire consequences not so far away.

Still at least climate change might be delayed as a result. I mean that as a plus point. Nature taking it's course....
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - CGNorwich
Some Americans seem to think thinks are going to get a loss worse.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-us-panic-buying-guns-ammo-nra-a9403886.html
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Mon 16 Mar 20 at 20:26
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Kevin
>Some Americans seem to think thinks are going to get a loss worse.

Thank Glub I split a box of 1000 cartridges with a mate before Christmas.

When the loo paper zombies come to steal my Izal I'll be ready for them!
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Bobby
I nearly found myself feeling sorry for Boris today but gave myself a quick shake!

Got majority vote, the go ahead to steamroller on with Brexit and carte blanche to do pretty much whatever Cummings wanted him to do to keep their pals happy and sod the rest of us. Carte blanche to make decisions that would probably never be recoverable from.

And then he got hit by this fastball and now the reality is everything else will take a backseat for the forseeable futire. So does he tackle this head on and make the correct decisions for society as a whole or does someone who always bases his actions on whats best for him and his supporters, have to try and look at every scenario through two sets of eyes?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - zippy
>> Yes, certainly very tough times.
>>
>> I don't know how many here have investments in the stock market but they've taken
>> a real pounding this week and last, not just due to the virus.
>>

Well I now need to work about 5 more years to pay off the mortgage :-(

Of course if they bounce back after all if well again then I will be ok.

My concern is that every appointment I have for the next month has been cancelled. I can do 80% of the work from home but there is nothing better than looking someone in the eye to get the truth of the situation.

I suspect my employer will be laying people off after a few weeks.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Bobby
My daughter and her boyfriend had an offer accepted for their first house a fortnight ago. Entry date is planned for 20 April.

I feel that they should just cancel this and wait for things to settle as

a. the housing market might crash
b. too mauch uncertainty just now (although she is a teacher so job should be as safe as can be)

But its first house, love's young dream etc etc, I fear it's one of these scenarios as a parent where you just need to step back and accept at some point in the future you may be the contingency!
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero

>> I feel that they should just cancel this and wait for things to settle as
>>
>> a. the housing market might crash
>> b. too mauch uncertainty just now (although she is a teacher so job should be
>> as safe as can be)

Buying a house is a long term investment. At any one point in buying you are on a 7 year sine wave, buy now, buy later, makes little difference in the long term.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Bobby
Cheers Zero, that is actually quite reassuring
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - legacylad
At the end of January I flew out to Spain with my 92yo mum. Flew home with her two weeks later then returned to Espana 36 hours later.
Today my brother and his missus thought it ok to take her out for lunch when she’s been self isolating for the previous 3 days.
Tomorrow the Age UK mini bus is collecting her and taking her to the local market. Along with a minibus full of old folks. Business as usual for Age UK until Friday 20/03 according to a very recent FB post.
She’s insisting on going, but it’s her life. Nothing I say can dissuade her. Hey ho.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Bobby
>>Nothing I say can dissuade her

Yip my dad insisted in going to mass on Sunday.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Roger.
TBH - I'm bored with it.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Lygonos
I was bored with it, but it now looks like it has potential now to be really really bad.

In the past week we've gone from business as usual to no routine work and everything filtered via the phones.

It's gonna get real messy.

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Robin O'Reliant
Funny how Brexit now seems no more than a minor little issue. This certainly puts things into perspective.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - legacylad
Certainly does. I’ll have run out of gin by Thursday, then when stopped and questioned by the Guardia Civil when I dare to leave the property somehow explain that I’m on an emergency mission to buy food.
Local major supermarkets have now implemented a ‘one in one out’ policy with a max of 15 customers at any one time. People queuing outside have to be spaced 3 metres apart on the newly laid down pavement markers.
I’ll bet that doesn’t go down well in certain countries .....
Last edited by: legacylad on Mon 16 Mar 20 at 21:49
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Roger.
I had to pop in to our local health centre today to collect some hearing-aid batteries. It was deserted and the receptionist wouldn't even handle my little record of issue book!
Jokingly, I quipped "At least I'll be able to hear my own death-rattle now!"
The misery hardly cracked a smile. :-)
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - zippy
Italy has has 27,980 cases and 2,158 deaths.

That's just shy of 8%, a lot higher than the previously suggested 3%!

Acknowledged that the population is older than the UK's but they also have more intensive care beds.

The WHO suggests we should be testing more. I think there is an advantage in knowing how widespread the virus is. Even the USA is offering mass testing. I do wonder if the lack of testing is a money saving exercise on the part of our Govt.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - smokie
I've no idea what it costs in time and money but I suppose they think it's better spent elsewhere.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - zippy
>> I've no idea what it costs in time and money but I suppose they think
>> it's better spent elsewhere.
>>

The cynic in me thinks they suppose its better not spent at all.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero

>> The WHO suggests we should be testing more. I think there is an advantage in
>> knowing how widespread the virus is. Even the USA is offering mass testing. I do
>> wonder if the lack of testing is a money saving exercise on the part of
>> our Govt.

The USA is not capable of offering mass testing
      1  
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - PeterS

>> The WHO suggests we should be testing more. I think there is an advantage in
>> knowing how widespread the virus is. Even the USA is offering mass testing. I do
>> wonder if the lack of testing is a money saving exercise on the part of
>> our Govt.
>>


I thought it was a matter of nurses/lbs time, not cost. Testing 60m people, even at only 5 minutes a go, is 5,000,000 hours of testing. That’s around 625,000 8 hour days. It’d occupy 1,700 staff for a year, and the CMO thinks those resources are better focussed on treating people. So then it’s a question of how much testing helps; I’m sure the WHO have their reasons, but statistically you need to test that many to get representative result. Scary times though! I’ve got a packet of rice, pasta and three toilet rolls here in Nairobi...do I pack them ;)
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero


>> many to get representative result. Scary times though! I’ve got a packet of rice, pasta
>> and three toilet rolls here in Nairobi...do I pack them ;)

It will pay for the cab at the airport here.
>>
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero
>> I do wonder if the lack of testing is a money saving exercise on the part of our Govt.

You really dont want to mobilise 63 million people for testing, if you want to spread a disease get the entire population on the move.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 17 Mar 20 at 10:22
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Rudedog
Up until the end of last week we were advised that each test took five days to turn around as only one center could process them in the whole UK.

This has now gone down to two days, due to contracts a lot of hospital pathology services have been centralised and probably go off site, this issue is now highlighting the problems with this.

Hospital contracts and the hospital supply chain needs to be looked at... I said it about ventilators but there is so much of the equipment, drugs and disposables that are not made in the UK anymore... I thought maybe the gov should make it very visible that they are ramping up the production of hand-gels/cleaning wipes so I've just checked our stockroom and the brand my Trust uses.... 'proudly developed in the UK... responsibly made in China'!!

We have an issue with drugs... many of our contracts look at price above all... so many of the basic drugs we use come from Europe (Italy, Spain, Germany)... there are now long delays receiving them but the contracts mean we are restricted from looking elsewhere.

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero
the contracts mean we are restricted from looking
>> elsewhere.

Not so the contracted company has breached contract terms re supply, good luck with either party trying seek contract reparations a:under a national emergency, b: post brexit, with no European court jurisdiction.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - No FM2R
FFS, always one step ahead....

Reading a health warning in Chile this morning, about Coronovirus of course, it tacked on the end that we also have confirmed cases of Meningitis W135 and Dengue.

Chile's borders are closed from tomorrow. Normally I would have not paid particular attention, but I happened to be in the Embassy yesterday for a couple of meetings and was mistaken for an Embassy official as I walked through reception.

There are *lots* of people who are staying here and were expecting to leave in the next week or two and now they're not. That's one thing if you're staying with relatives, but quite another if you're in a hotel or AirBnB.

I assume that they'll have capacity unless they are forced to close, but imagine the cost!

They say the border is closed for 2 weeks initially, but I don't see it opening again in the next couple of months.

Never mind if you have pets, relatives, or other responsibilities back at home.

There's also 4 cruise ships who were expecting to off load their UK Citizens in Chile at the end of their cruise. And Chile closed its sea borders 4 days ago. Nobody actually knows what they're going to do with the ships or where they're going to go. I've no idea about how much reserve fuel, water and food they carry, but it obviously can't be unlimited.

When/if they find a way to stop Coronavirus we will still be facing a very broken world.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Manatee
Looks as if the UK strategy has changed now. The higher than expected % of cases needing ICU means the NHS won't cope at all with the flatten-the-sombrero approach so the aim will be to minimise infections and reduce new case levels like other countries.

Unfortunately reversion to normal life means waiting for a vaccine. That sounds to me like a possible 12 months or more of isolation for many.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Manatee
Sorry no citations for above. Just putting together bits and pieces of info. Raab has advised no non-essential foreign travel.

I went to the quack's this morning. I was directed to a sub-branch which has been set up as a respiratory centre (I have a cough, non-COVID as I have had it since mid Jan) and had to sit in the car until called in. I had to be masked up before entering and to apply hand sanitizer. Doctor said that this has already got very messy and expects worse with an overshoot of COVID-19 cases over the next couple of weeks.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - smokie
I'm reasonably confident that EasyJet will get me back from Portugal on Friday evening. Seems the Portugal/Spain land border is open to residents of other countries travelling home so I expect they would still allow (maybe empty) planes to land to take people away.

Over the weekend I was not convinced that the UK was the better place to be as I had no confidence in their strategy, compared to what I knew about over here. I am now more comfortable that they are taking a serious approach but there are worse places to be quarantined than the Algarve if I don't get back!
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - No FM2R
Which has a better hospital bed / population ratio?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - smokie
In 2017 Portugal did, but I hope it doesn't come to that!!

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_hospital_beds
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Haywain
"I went to the quack's this morning. I was directed to a sub-branch which has been set up as a respiratory centre (I have a cough, non-COVID as I have had it since mid Jan) and had to sit in the car until called in."

Did the doc give any suggestions for the cough? I've had a cold/cough/sore throat/cold/cough etc since Boxing Day and so have friends. I have now hit the tree-pollen hay-fever season again, so that explains recent coughs/tickely throat. I get the impression that the key difference is a high temperature, so that's what I'm watching out for.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Bromptonaut
>> Looks as if the UK strategy has changed now. The higher than expected % of
>> cases needing ICU means the NHS won't cope at all with the flatten-the-sombrero approach so
>> the aim will be to minimise infections and reduce new case levels like other countries.

Heard several times this morning that some research at Imperial College had kaiboshed the herd immunity/flatten sombrero approach.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Robin O'Reliant
In the "Every cloud has a silver lining" mode, the Jehovah's Witnesses have cancelled cancelled all house calls.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero
>> In the "Every cloud has a silver lining" mode, the Jehovah's Witnesses have cancelled cancelled
>> all house calls.

Silver lining surreal moment. Went to JLP at High Wycombe today. Very spooky, store was empty, no check out queues, the restaurant was empty, choice of prime seats. Driving home, the wheels of the car never stopped turning from door to door, even through the notorious a/c m25 western section from 15 to 11, google maps said "Welcome Home you are 15 minutes early"
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Lygonos
>>google maps said "Welcome Home you are 15 minutes early"

Guess you missed the sound of someone scurrying down the drainpipe outside the bedroom window then.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero
>> >>google maps said "Welcome Home you are 15 minutes early"
>>
>> Guess you missed the sound of someone scurrying down the drainpipe outside the bedroom window
>> then.

Two problems there.

1 we live in a bungalow, so he must have been on the roof
2 The wife was with me, so worryingly he must have been humping the dog*

*is BBD back in the UK then?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - PeterS

>>
>> Heard several times this morning that some research at Imperial College had kaiboshed the herd
>> immunity/flatten sombrero approach.
>>

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

This perhaps? Wouldn’t say it kaiboshes it based on a quick skim...?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Bromptonaut
>> This perhaps? Wouldn’t say it kaiboshes it based on a quick skim...?

MAybe kaibosh wasn't the right word but it sounded as though a particular piece of research had been a game changer.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Duncan
>> >> This perhaps? Wouldn’t say it kaiboshes it based on a quick skim...?
>>
>> MAybe kaibosh wasn't the right word but it sounded as though a particular piece of
>> research had been a game changer.
>>

Pendant Corner

These may be difficult times, but that is no reason to let standards slip.

The word is "kibosh".

www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/kibosh
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - No FM2R

>> This perhaps? Wouldn’t say it kaiboshes it based on a quick skim...?

And after a careful read neither would I.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - zippy
Miss Z was back on A&E last night after a short holiday.

There were only 3 doctors on duty from a usual compliment of 9. The others have gone off sick or sent home query Covid 19.

There was no pressure though. A few real emergencies came in but none of the dozens of usual minor ailments that people usually take to A&E.

Still no face masks.

The Trust has set up a specialist A&E for respiratory problems so she shouldn't be seeing any Covid cases unless they get flooded.

She is due to rotate to another department at the end of the month. The Trust have been asking her to stay on A&E and she is not happy as she is incompatible with the shift patterns but has enjoyed the work and they won't compromise on the rota at the moment.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Manatee

>> This perhaps? Wouldn’t say it kaiboshes it based on a quick skim...?

I would:

"Perhaps our most significant conclusion is that mitigation is unlikely to be feasible without emergency
surge capacity limits of the UK and US healthcare systems being exceeded many times over. In the
most effective mitigation strategy examined, which leads to a single, relatively short epidemic (case
isolation, household quarantine and social distancing of the elderly), the surge limits for both general
ward and ICU beds would be exceeded by at least 8-fold under the more optimistic scenario for critical
care requirements that we examined. In addition, even if all patients were able to be treated, we
predict there would still be in the order of 250,000 deaths in GB, and 1.1-1.2 million in the US.
In the UK, this conclusion has only been reached in the last few days, with the refinement of estimates
of likely ICU demand due to COVID-19 based on experience in Italy and the UK (previous planning
estimates assumed half the demand now estimated) and with the NHS providing increasing certainty
around the limits of hospital surge capacity.

We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The
social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be
profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier
stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently."
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - No FM2R
Try this one;

Figure 5 and it's text in particular.

www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.13.20022806v2.full.pdf
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - zippy
It would be nice to see profiteering made illegal.

Just browsing for a thermometer. Looking for one of the in-ear ones. Of course all major retailers are out of stock.

A third party seller on Amazon has one for £179.99! The unofficial RRP is £50 and Argos usually sells it for £39.99 when in stock.

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Manatee
>> It would be nice to see profiteering made illegal.
>>
>> Just browsing for a thermometer. Looking for one of the in-ear ones. Of course all
>> major retailers are out of stock.
>>
>> A third party seller on Amazon has one for £179.99! The unofficial RRP is £50
>> and Argos usually sells it for £39.99 when in stock.

Interesting to see you arguing against a basic feature of the market economy Zippy:)

A horse-owning friend of mine was searching for her thermometer the other day. She was slightly troubled that she couldn't recall whether the one she'd found had been up the horse's bum.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - zippy
>> Interesting to see you arguing against a basic feature of the market economy Zippy:)
>>

I have mentioned elsewhere on here that my director and I walked out of a meeting where a prospective customer was going to tell staff they needed to reduce wages to stay in business and then make them redundant to reduce their redundancy bill.

We may be bankers but we do try to be ethical.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero
Now this is scary

www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-51930681
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - No FM2R
Scary because they've finally admitted that's what they do anyway?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero
>> Scary because they've finally admitted that's what they do anyway?

Yes - exactly. This bit

Although it is shrouded in secrecy, other countries are believed to collect data from mobile phones to be used in mass-surveillance programmes or in specific criminal investigations that require case-by-case legal permission.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 17 Mar 20 at 20:23
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - zippy
>> >> Scary because they've finally admitted that's what they do anyway?
>>
>> Yes - exactly. This bit
>>
>> Although it is shrouded in secrecy, other countries are believed to collect data from mobile
>> phones to be used in mass-surveillance programmes or in specific criminal investigations that require case-by-case
>> legal permission.
>>

Yep, I always reckoned that this was used to catch the M25 rapist (Nokia 3310 era).
It must have taken quite some time to match up all the phones to masts and times.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - sooty123
I bet the Chinese surveillance networks are in over drive over this. I remember last year they had spend a ton of money on a very comprehensive surveillance network.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero
Chinese phone surveillance and trackingis a given and its methods well known and accepted (by the west anyway,, and most Chinese users)
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Haywain
"We therefore conclude that epidemic suppression is the only viable strategy at the current time. The social and economic effects of the measures which are needed to achieve this policy goal will be profound. Many countries have adopted such measures already, but even those countries at an earlier stage of their epidemic (such as the UK) will need to do so imminently."

Quite ..... I've been shouting that at the telly for the past week!
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - No FM2R
I used to be a very heavy smoker. Now I don't smoke; haven't had so much as a drag in about 15 years, I forget exactly.

Anyway, cigarette smoke doesn't bother me, in fact I quite like the smell,but I am always aware of it. Last night I was leaning on my car waiting for a daughter when I realised i could smell smoke. I looked around and the smoker had to be at least 25ft from me.

So if his cigarette smoke can get to me in the open air at 25ft, presumably his breath-carried COVID-19 can also? Or not?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Robin O'Reliant
I wouldn't have thought so. This disease is spread by transmission of droplets as far as I know, and I doubt they would drift through the air like smoke.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Haywain
"This disease is spread by transmission of droplets as far as I know, "

I wonder how far the droplets would go in the wind if the chap sneezed? I recall seeing a B&W specially-lit photo of someone sneezing and their head was surrounded by a cloud of minute droplets.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero

>> So if his cigarette smoke can get to me in the open air at 25ft,
>> presumably his breath-carried COVID-19 can also? Or not?

Not, its all about particle size, Ciggy smoke is about 0.25 microns, virus carried on much larger particles like cough or sneeze droplets about 0.1 to 0.5mm, much less carry before gravity gets to them.,

Out of interest I have discovered in training and competition, my dog can air scent an article at 20 feet. That is pick up the smell of my hand on a cloth at about 20 feet.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - legacylad
Quick question.
3 of us had our Jet2 flights ALC> LBA on 27/03 cancelled tonight. We’d already bought Ryanair flights back on 23/03.
Finally got through to Jet2 on phone as we were offered additional flights home early. Unable to do so on web because we were already checked in. Flying home tomorrow evening to Newcastle. Need to get a 1 way rental to get home then return to LBA the following day.
No hire vans available at Newcastle airport but choice of Seat Alhambra ( National) or Citroen Grand Picasso (Avis). Needs to accommodate 3 adults and two road bikes in bike bags.
I’m pooped after a stressful evening and think the Seat will be the larger of the two.
Would anyone agree please ?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - legacylad
I’ve just looked on ‘the other place’ to check specs and both models quoted on the rental websites ceased production several years ago! Doubt the actual rental vehicle will be either of those then!
Something to sort tomorrow in between packing....we depart ALC 17:05 so no need to get up at crack of dawn.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero
The citroen is now called the C4 space tourer, The Alhambra is still available new, its basically a posh vw caddy max
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 17 Mar 20 at 22:28
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - helicopter
Just looked on You Tube at What Car report on 7 seaters and Seat comes first for space all round.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 5 - Zero
Think you are right, the Alhambra has more load area room (length) with the seats down
       
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