Non-motoring > Coronavirus - Volume 20   [Read only]
Thread Author: VxFan Replies: 148

 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - VxFan

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Ongoing debate.

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Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 30 Jun 20 at 15:13
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - henry k
I plan to immediately top up all my important supplies before the second wave happens.
With a half cocked track and trace combined with a "lock em all up on arrival" I am not hopeful that things are going Bojo's way.
I am expecting a further minimum of two months at home for us.
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - Robin O'Reliant
Wales is still on a pretty strict lockdown, all beauty spots closed to public. I believe the R rate here is 0.7, a bit lower than in England.
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - henry k
>> Wales is still on a pretty strict lockdown, all beauty spots closed to public.
>>
That does not stop a trip from Surrey to see the beach on Anglesey even if not just the beach but the airfield is closed.

The pilot went on to inform MPGS officers that he had found the airfield on Google Earth and read on Wikipedia that it handled civilian traffic as well.

www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-05-29/pilot-breaks-lockdown-rules-by-flying-from-surrey-to-anglesey-because-he-wanted-to-go-to-the-beach/
www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/pilot-flies-fairoaks-airport-wales-18332420

Perhaps he invoked the Cummings escape " I was testing my eyes".

       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - Terry
I do agree that Boris fired the starting gun a bit too early, but it may not lead to a further major lockdown. Some simple maths:

- assume there are approx 50k infectious people at the moment (7-8k per day)
- assume once infected people remain infectious for 7 days
- with R0 of 2.5 after (say) 4 weeks the 50k would have grown to 1.95m (2.5^4 x 50k)
- with R0 of 1.2 after (say) 4 weeks the 50k will have grown to 104k (1.2^4 x 50k)

I have chosen a 4 week period as the lag in doing something about a modest overshoot of R0 to 1.2. R0 of 2.5 was the unfettered growth rate pre lockdown.

4 weeks reflects the time it may take to identify and initiate some solutions to the problem. With test track and trace if it actually works (unproven at the moment) the action can be better targeted than a general lockdown.

This does rely upon people keeping to the guidelines - particularly with respect to distancing. Or maybe I am unbelievably complacent and optimistic!
      1  
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - zippy
>>Or maybe I am unbelievably complacent and optimistic!

Just have a gander at the pictures in the papers of beaches today!
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - No FM2R
The more the lemmings go out and rub against each other the less time the rest of us will have to self-isolate.

I'm all for relaxing the lockdown.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 30 May 20 at 23:36
      2  
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - Haywain
"The more the lemmings go out and rub against each other the less time the rest of us will have to self-isolate. I'm all for relaxing the lockdown."

I'm of that view also - if you don't have to go out and mingle with the dopes, why would you! I've a feeling, though, that the epidemic is as long as it is wide ....... you can go for the Swedish approach and go for broke with a massive early burst or go for lockdown and have a long drawn-out period of infection. I think we can all understand the logic of the latter if your intention is not to 'overwhelm the NHS' ........... but how long will this go on for?

There's a very good science based (as opposed to political) article on the BBC website at the moment - it should be compulsory reading for everyone, especially those heading for a crowded beach today www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52840763 I have an uncomfortable feeling that covid may become endemic within the population and pop out unannounced like pneumonia seems to be doing.

The article invokes the activities of Typhoid Mary Mallon, and takes me back to our medical microbiology lectures some 50 years ago. Our lecturer's face used to light up as he enthused about the symptoms of typhoid - green, foul-smelling, watery stools, but his fastidious training shaped our aseptic techniques. He earned himself the name Typhoid Malcolm and I remember him with great admiration.
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - legacylad
Beauty spots around Settle were packed today. Friends of mine own the land around Stainforth Force and cannot close it off because a PF runs across it. The usual hordes leaving piles of rubbish, parking anywhere and everywhere. There simply aren’t sufficient police to hand out parking tickets.
I’m all for encouraging walkers to visit the beautiful part of the world where I live. A vocal minority of locals hate any outsiders arriving to enjoy their exercise but this is beyond a joke with crowds lining the riverbank, no toilet facilities, several cases of overnight camping and lots of local disruption for farmers trying to navigate their way with large machinery along narrow country lanes.
I dont have a solution apart from seizing their vehicles as most are parked illegally, and store them in a farmers field.
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - Terry
Simple solution - yellow and black diversion signs leading to a network of single track roads.

I am sure there are some locally which the locals would happily sacrifice for a day or two. After an hour or two sitting in an overheated car not going anywhere very much, they may decide to go home.

Alternative strategy - police use ANPR and cammeras to pursue ALL cars passing with no tax, no insurance, no MoT, speeding. Should put off a few tourists!
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - God
>>lots of local disruption for farmers trying to navigate their way with large machinery along narrow country lanes.

Do what dey do in corn wall: www.fwi.co.uk/news/poll-was-farmer-right-to-spray-slurry-on-parked-car
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - legacylad
Illegal parking on the nearest narrow road leading to Stainforth Foss made it impossible to get a tractor and slurry trailer down it. Otherwise a grand idea.

Fortunately we can escape the crowds away from the river....last night we had a small 60th birthday party a mile from home on the top of Giggleswick Scar. Picnic blankets, lots of food & drink, social distancing not a problem as there were only 5 of us! Stayed there until sunset facing West. A beautiful sunny evening, nice and quiet, 2 young couples sat a few hundred yards away hidden from view enjoying the long distance views to Pendle and down the Ribble valley. And drinking fizz as we kept hearing bottles pop.
Round to my neighbours lawn tonight...drinks and nibbles 6-8 in the evening sun watching the huge variety of bird life on their numerous feeders.
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - Duncan
We get a load of grockles on the green and in the woods where I live.

Why don't they take their rubbish home with them?
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - sooty123
www.msn.com/en-gb/money/news/coronavirus-crisis-could-cost-uk-more-than-six-million-jobs-for-good/ar-BB14OHeL?ocid=spartandhp

In the article it says there are plans to make all staff redundant at BA and have them reapply for their jobs. It seems its a company that is in frequent clashes with their workforce.
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - zippy
>>reapply for their jobs.

One of my employers did that to whole depts in 2001.
I thought whilst I have my CV up to date I ought to send it out and did. Got a 50% pay rise for my troubles and less hassle all round.

Granted it’s not so rosy for the folk at BA at the moment or other airlines but I hope over time things will improve for them.
Last edited by: zippy on Sun 31 May 20 at 17:04
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - God
There was a poll on that Farmers Weekly link. I voted NO, Mr Farmer shouldn't have done that.

I was sir prized to see 92% voted YES, but then, knowing farmers for the last 22 years I shouldn't really be surprised!
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - bathtub tom
A farmer friend used to spray a corrosive liquid once a year, it would strip the paint off the tractor used so he'd jetwash and re-spray it each year. I was surprised to see him doing it when several cars were parked in his fields and the mist blowing the spray towards them. He didn't worry as it took several days before the paint started peeling.
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - bathtub tom
>>last night we had a small
>> 60th birthday party a mile from home on the top of Giggleswick Scar. Picnic blankets,
>> lots of food & drink, social distancing not a problem as there were only 5
>> of us! Stayed there until sunset facing West.

Did you spot Elon Musk's spacecraft, heading West to East fairly low down to the South at 10:15? A very bright pinhead of light.
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - PeterS
>> >>Or maybe I am unbelievably complacent and optimistic!
>>
>> Just have a gander at the pictures in the papers of beaches today!
>>

I went to the beach last weekend and again on Wednesday. It’s only a few mikes from me. Both times from a distance it looked crowded...similar to some of the pictures in the papers. But when you got closer it was apparent that the groups were all well separated. Despite full car parks,no groups was within 4m of each other I’d estimate. And that was at high tide! The composition of some of the groups was perhaps suspect - groups of friends rather than households I suspect. But I can’t get worked up about that. It’s no surprise that the reporting is sensationalist though... The risk outside is low. And the wailing about a second wave post the reported VE Day celebrations three weeks ago has singularly failed to come to anything as far as I can see..
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - smokie
There's no doubt the press paint the worst picture.I'm not sure if it was linked to here ( I think not) but some weeks back there were articles about how busy Brighton beach had been, with photos. The webcam footage from the same time/day showed a completely opposite story.

Personally I've never been much of a beach fan anyway and I am still OK with riding this out mostly at home for a few more weeks. I have space, and all my toys etc, and still one or two small jobs to get done. We're walking most days for a couple of hours and the weather has been kind. We're keeping shopping events to a minimum, certainly by over-buying some stuff, but there's been no wastage so far of anything (but a head of broccoli bulked up a curry last night as it was starting to look a bit anemic!)

I could be persuaded to meet face to face with my two Sunday night drinking mates in a garden within a few weeks but we are Zooming instead which doesn't replace face to face but we're getting used to it.

My German mates tell me that although their bars have re-opened they have half the tables, you aren't allowed to stand and drink or got to the bar yourself and with everyone wearing face masks it wasn't a great experience. And one said hos local restaurant has perspex barriers between each table, Still, you've got to start somewhere.
       
 Coronavirus Volume 19 - CGNorwich
The ironic thing is of course that places like the Peak District and other National Parks have more than enough space for everyone if the don’t all go the same spot. One of the problems at the moment is car parking. Councils and other bodies have closed car parks or are restricting their use which leads to even more pressure on those few areas you can park. The National Trust for example has limited parking and made it necessary to book a slot in advance.

I visited a small village in the Broads recently. The small council owned car park where I usually park for a walk across the deserted marshes had been illegally closed by locals placing a trailer across the entrance.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - sooty123
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52767773

I thought this was interesting article looking at the changes in property and our town centres if more people start working from home.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 2 Jun 20 at 02:58
       
 SEX now illegal.. - zippy
Be careful anyone with a mistress who doesn't live with you....!

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-sex-lockdown-law-couples-indoors-england-a9542171.html


I wonder how they are going to enforce it!?

Arrest all women who give birth in 9 or 10 months that don't live with their partner?
       
 SEX now illegal.. - Zero
"Police do not have the power to check for violations inside properties"

Carry on as you were.
       
 SEX now illegal.. - zippy
>> "Police do not have the power to check for violations inside properties"
>>
>> Carry on as you were.
>>

As I mentioned. Evidence may present itself down the line :-)

       
 SEX now illegal.. - Zero
>> >> "Police do not have the power to check for violations inside properties"
>> >>
>> >> Carry on as you were.
>> >>
>>
>> As I mentioned. Evidence may present itself down the line :-)

Carry on as you were, but be careful.
       
 SEX now illegal.. - Timeonmyhands
But will it stand up in court?
       
 SEX now illegal.. - tyrednemotional
BBD will be here soon to tell us social distancing doesn't present a problem.
       
 SEX now illegal.. - VxFan
>> But will it stand up in court?

Depends on who you're trying to point the blame to.
       
 SEX now illegal.. - Robin O'Reliant
Any court case would go tits up.
       
 SEX now illegal.. - smokie
Mmmm - handcuffs...
       
 Parliament voting - Bobby
Why oh why, do we need to have such a ridiculous voting system for MPs.

The normal system of having to walk through the lobbies is bad enough, but the scenes from today?? Jeez we must be a laughing stock.

If only there was some way of harnessing all the technology that is available in the world now that could make it more streamlined.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
I see the BBC is back to normal....

Headline:

Public told to cut water use amid surge in lockdown demand

Text:

Water companies are urging people to use water more carefully

Actual Quote:

"We’re just asking people to save a little bit of water and that’ll make a huge difference.”


www.bbc.com/news/uk-52893790
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - CGNorwich
"Anglian Water said the rainfall was so heavy during the winter that stocks remained high – and there was no danger of restrictions for households or businesses this year.

A spokesman said: “Our underground water courses and reservoirs are about 96% full so we are not anticipating any problems. We would obviously like people to be sensible with water but we cannot see any likelihood of restrictions.”
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero
Only about three weeks ago was the last flood warning removed, in the dry south as well. There was a risk of full aquifers and boreholes flooding the surface.

The current issue is not about water reserves, but about over-stressing the system on supply.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - zippy
I haven't been following the graphs closely but see tonight that according to the BBC today, the UK is second only to Belgium for deaths per 100k at 60 compared to 84. Most other countries are significantly better than us.

What are we doing wrong?

Or is it simply population / demographic mix?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52925716
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - PeterS
I think demographics and population density play a part, along with our approach of not hospitalising until symptoms are quite severe. That’s because the goal of lockdown was to protect the NHS from being overloaded by limiting the rate of transmission, not actually stopping the virus spreading completely. But for all counties, the thing isn’t over. So while the half time score doesn’t look good, we need to wait until it’s all blown over to see what worked and what didn’t!
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Robin O'Reliant
>> That’s because the goal of lockdown was to protect
>> the NHS from being overloaded by limiting the rate of transmission, not actually stopping the
>> virus spreading completely. But for all counties, the thing isn’t over. So while the half
>> time score doesn’t look good, we need to wait until it’s all blown over to
>> see what worked and what didn’t!
>>

My thoughts too.

If we have a higher death total than other countries presumably we have a higher rate of infections, meaning that if and when a second spike occurs we will have a much higher heard immunity than most so might get away lightly.

And we can't assume that everyone else is using the same counting methods that we are, some of those figures could be very dubious.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
>>But for all counties, the thing isn’t over.

'kin tell me about it.

Just had our full, military enforced, quarantine extended for another week. Cases are ramping up and whilst the fatality rate is low there is some doubt about the figures.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero

>> And we can't assume that everyone else is using the same counting methods that we
>> are, some of those figures could be very dubious.

take Russia. 450k cases of covid, only 5,500 deaths from covid, Complete garbage.

I'm sure some of you have seen a UK death certificate, my mothers had four listed complimentary causes, at the moment if any of them says coronavirus, that's chalked up as cause of death in the statistics, even tho it may not be.

The only way we will know the full CV death rate in the UK, is in about two years (wave 1, wave 2) and compare total mortality to previous CV free years.

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Duncan
>> But for all counties, the thing isn’t over. So while the half
>> time score doesn’t look good, we need to wait until it’s all blown over to
>> see what worked and what didn’t!

Iran is finding the second half just as demanding as the first! Sorry.

Have a look at the graphs for new cases.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/iran/
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Fullchat
Tuesday sees the funeral of the Father in Law. 86 years of age but an athlete and completed his last 10K when he was 80. But he had dementia. A fairly large family. 4 children, 9 grandchildren and 3 great grand children.
He was admitted into a care home just prior to lockdown where he seemed to be reasonably settled but the implementation of lockdown prohibited any visitors. We have a photograph of him dancing with a carer over Easter. His wife, who also has Alzheimer's was due to join him but owing to a case of sickness and diarrhoea her admission was postponed 12 hours in advance.
A couple of weeks later he was admitted to hospital as he had not been eating and drinking and was tested positive for Covid 19. There had been a case at the home who had been admitted and discharged from hospital.
They administered various treatments for underlying conditions but he would not tolerate a feeding tube. Pretty much most of the time he was asleep.
The hospital facilitated family video meetings via an application on an Ipad for as long as long and as often as required.
Eventually he was given 24 hours but lived another 6 days surprising the medical staff to the point where they had to re-asses to ensure they had not actually missed something.
The family all said their goodbyes at the point he was given 24 hours but as the time went on there were many reminiscing conversations among the family members whilst he layed there. His breathing becoming slower and sometimes more laboured.
He passed away in the early morning of the 24th May with only a staff member at his side.
10 family members will be at his funeral. We will not be there due to having a shielded person at home but will be connected by video link. Unfortunately Mrs FC is somewhat paranoid and totally obsessed with isolation and will not entertain the fact that we could be at the location isolated. Her father her choice. One daughter who is living separately and working as a pharmacy assistant will be going.
The point of this post really is that you see the same circumstances on the media but, whilst sympathising, don't really relate to the situation. It really is dreadful. His lifelong partner not been able to spend those final days and hours with him. Likewise the family members not being able to say a proper goodbye. Watching family members emotions which should have some privacy and dignity. None of the physical contact associated with close family.
If there is a plus side the hospital staff did what they could and were true angels. Ive clapped for them.
Last edited by: Fullchat on Sat 6 Jun 20 at 13:54
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - smokie
Thanks for sharing and sorry for your loss.


It's a shame some of those who are being somewhat blase about lockdown don't see this kind of stuff.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
>>It's a shame some of those who are being somewhat blase about lockdown don't see this kind of stuff.

Trying to be delicate...

Lockdown has nothing to do with preventing you getting the disease. Everybody will get it, or at least be exposed to it, sooner or later.

Lockdown has nothing to do with stopping you dying from the virus. Everybody going to die from the virus will die from the virus.

Lockdown is to prevent the third category; people who would not have died who may die from coronavirus or something else due to the lack of available medical care. And for that it was, and to an extent is, essential.

It does that only by slowing down the spread to that the system isn't hit with too many in one go.

I'm not sure what people think Johnson's Government has done wrong. NOBODY has died through the lack of medical care, the NHS got close but never actually ran out of capacity, everybody who needed care got it, and they are opening the country as quickly as they can.

People keep saying "Oh but 40,000 people died". Exactly how do these critics think that could have been prevented or reduced? Perhaps infection from virus today could have been prevented, but it would simply happen tomorrow.

Lockdown or quarantine cannot achieve more than that unless you stay in it forever. Just one person infected the world. So if after quarantine one person in the country is positive, or just 1 positive person comes through the borders, then it spreads again.

Unless and until everybody has had it and there is sufficient herd immunity or an effect vaccine is invented. That's it.

What more exactly do people think the Government should have done?

Nobody died through the lack of health care. Sounds like a perfect result to me.

Releasing quarantine is a matter of juggling the release of quarantine with the increase of infection rates. And there *will* be an increase in infection rates, it's just a matter of keeping it below the capacity of the health service.
So far.

Only a vaccine will change the equation. Or time.

On a slightly different matter people talk a lot about how age is the significant factor. It actually isn't, at least not directly. It is a matter of other conditions. Though of course the older one is the more likely one is to have other conditions.

Thus there is a point, and perhaps we are at that point, where we believe the health system can cope with a significant increase in infection and so we allow it to spread, and focus on keeping the particularly vulnerable as protected as possible.

In the end, I'm not sure people's reaction to quarantine is as important any more. In fact, given that the Government originally worked with a model of only 50% effectiveness, and planned for that, I'm sure that not only is the current behaviour expected, it is also desired.

And I haven't heard of any reports of people being reckless around vulnerable people. Mostly people seem to be quite sensible about that aspect.

They're just being reckless around other fundamentally safe people. And that is probably desirable.

What we do need to do is start allowing people to make their own decisions; do you want to be with a loved one when they die of Coronavirus even knowing the risk, perhaps small, that you may contract it? i think most people are capable of that decision.

Of course, now that the media and politicians have returned to their default behaviour, it's all nit-picking and scoring points. Long past the point we can expect any sense out of that lot.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Lygonos
>> I'm not sure what people think Johnson's Government has done wrong

-Pathetic stocks of PPE
-Emptying untested/infected patients into care homes to free up hospital space
-Historic reduction in hospital capacity
-Not monitoring incoming travellers for fever/symptoms
-No test/trace until now (and it is a shambles - world beating? ho ho ho)
-Too slow to engage an effective lockdown allowing the spike to be 2-3 times higher than necessary

You may think no-one has died due to lack of healthcare, but by allowing such a big early spike many thousands will have been given treatment that is not as good as it would be now, or in the next few months as medical experience develops.

Slowing down the infection has great value and can reduce overall death/morbidity - the total number of severe infections/death is not locked in at the start. Once locked-down/shielded and the virus is controlled

If a vaccine is developed it is obviously more important to have had a slow start. Also once shielding is in effect, further cases will be within the low risk population (helping the herd immunity effect without killing as many as a free-for-all)

Of course it's very easy to snipe via the retrospectoscope but some of the above was glaringly obvious.



      2  
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - PeterS
Whilst I agree with the sentiment, aren’t the first two the responsibility of the NHS Trusts? It seems to me the government is being blamed for everything CV related, and I fear that the subsequent deification of the NHS, which has undoubtedly done a pretty good job in the circumstances will stifle any criticism from or reform recommended by the inevitable inquiry that will follow.
      2  
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Lygonos
>> aren't the first two the responsibility of the NHS Trusts?

1. Stocks of PPE/Pandemic preparedness are part of a national strategy and as such are ultimately governed from a supra-Trust level.

If Trusts were non-compliant with departmental regulations then they should potentially be held to account.


2. NHS England advised hospitals to make room for the expected influx of sick and very sick Covid patients - they (hospitals) were told (by NHS England) that negative tests were not required prior to discharge from wards to care homes.


Joint responsibility I would suggest.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R

>> -Pathetic stocks of PPE

Not Johnson.

>> -Emptying untested/infected patients into care homes to free up hospital space

>> -Historic reduction in hospital capacity

Not Johnson.

>> -Not monitoring incoming travellers for fever/symptoms
>> -No test/trace until now (and it is a shambles - world beating? ho ho ho)
>> -Too slow to engage an effective lockdown allowing the spike to be 2-3 times higher
>> than necessary

How would any of that change anything other than reducing a spike which never exceeded the NHS capacity anyway? Further slowing down would have increased the length of time the economy was close to inactive for no benefit.

We're *all* going to be exposed to it. *ALL* of us. If there is no vaccine/immunity you *will* get it.

We needed to slow it down as much as possible (to protect the NHS capacity) and as little as possible (to limit the economic damage).

>> You may think no-one has died due to lack of healthcare, but by allowing such
>> a big early spike many thousands will have been given treatment that is not as
>> good as it would be now, or in the next few months as medical experience
>> develops.

No Government could make the virus not happen. Of course a virus is going to have some impact. I can't see how the spike would have been better later, especially given the resulting economic and social damage.

>> Slowing down the infection has great value and can reduce overall death/morbidity - the >>total number of severe infections/death is not locked in at the start. Once locked- down/
>>shielded and the virus is controlled

Unless you develop a vaccine or immunity I cannot see how that is true in the real world. Without either of those the only way to avoid the virus is to avoid exposure. And just how are you going to achieve that and maintain a functioning planet? And what about the resulting deaths from increased poverty, lack of early treatment on every other illness or condition etc. etc.?

>> If a vaccine is developed it is obviously more important to have had a slow
>> start.

Why?

>>Also once shielding is in effect, further cases will be within the low risk population

So lockdown until we get a vaccine? No thanks.

I, and I suspect a gazillion others, would simply not be prepared to live with that. Social chaos, potentially anarchy, would result.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Manatee
I'm sorry to hear about your father in law FC. What terrible circumstances. I fear being separated from my wife when one of us goes more than the dying.

NoFM2R:

>>I'm not sure what people think Johnson's Government has done wrong

Perhaps your piece was written to start a discussion, but my perception is different.

There a lot that isn't known about COVID-19 even now, or, as is the nature of things, probably quite a lot is obvious to people at the coalface that has yet to be quantified and added to the whatever paradigm the SAGE groupthink is centred on. Having fewer dead people while our knowledge grows seems like a good thing.

If a vaccine or effective treatment is found, it's by no means certain that we will all get it and/or be subjected to the present course of the disease. Does your 'run its course' premise apply to South Korea for example? They are finding c. 50 new cases per day cf. our 5,000, and 80% of theirs are traced from other positively tested people. That's how test and trace should work. They have had fewer than 1000 deaths, at least officially. Their exit strategy is still uncertain but they have done much less damage to themselves to date, although collapsed exports are causing great economic damage.

We are a long way from herd immunity if official estimates that around 5% nationally (10% in London) have so far been infected are correct. That supposes that immunity is generally conferred which remains one of the unknowns.

Hindsight of course is an advantage, but as far as blame goes what is clear is that the government's priority is to manage appearances. The most visible fake news is the testing numbers. Test and trace remains a sham.

Much as I enjoy watching the Tax Avoiders' Support Party self-immolate, it's a shame that Cummings' antics and Johnson's support for him have deflected so much attention from the facts behind their propaganda.

I have given some thought to managing our own risk. It doesn't really work for those who have to work because so much depends on the behaviour of others. Easier for people like me who can bottle up pretty well, but I don't want to spend my last few years like that.

I'm fairly resigned to catching it, and I think my chances of surviving it are reasonable for now - my guess is around 49/50 (About 1/1000 of my age group has already died with COVID and I assume the infection rate is c. 5%). Wife is probably fitter than I am, and at least she doesn't have my dilated cardiomyopathy. On we must go, with sensible precautions where possible. It's pointless staying alive for the grandchildren if we never see them anyway.

Keep taking the vitamin D.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero

>> On we must go, with sensible precautions where possible. It's pointless staying alive for the
>> grandchildren if we never see them anyway.

And there is the nub. Locked down may be "alive" but is it a life? People need to align their priorities with their risk. That can in each case be unique. Government cant guide you, all you need from them now is to tell you what the current risk state is, and you act accordingly according to your needs.


>> Keep taking the vitamin D.

I'm sure there is much we can do, personal health and life style wise to alleviate the risk.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R

>> Perhaps your piece was written to start a discussion, but my perception is different.

I wrote it because that's what I think. Same reason i write anything.

>>Having fewer dead people while our knowledge grows seems like a good thing.

Lockdown seems like a bad thing.

The *only* way of stopping people dying from it, assuming that they are at risk of doing so, is a vaccine.

I do not wish to be locked down until we have one available and distributed. And *I AM* one of the vulnerable ones.

>> If a vaccine or effective treatment is found, it's by no means certain that we
>> will all get it and/or be subjected to the present course of the disease.

No vaccine = lockdown or exposure. Unless you;re aware of a third alternative?

>>Does your 'run its course' premise apply to South Korea for example?

Yes. There is shielding or there is exposure. In any case, that is f.all to do with the performance of Johnson and his Government..

>> We are a long way from herd immunity if official estimates that around 5% nationally
>> (10% in London) have so far been infected are correct. That supposes that immunity is
>> generally conferred which remains one of the unknowns.

All irrelevant to anything I wrote.

>> but as far as blame goes what is clear is that the government's priority is to manage
>> appearances.

And the other politicians and media to destroy that appearance and the population to believe what they choose.

Not very relevant to the handling of the virus though, is it?

>>The most visible fake news is the testing numbers. Test and trace remains a sham.

I don't think that is true, but say it is, so what? Exposure or lockdown; that remains the choice. And the value of lockdown is to keep the level below capacity.

Unless you are going to lockdown until there is a vaccine, and there may never be. And I will not accept that lockdown. Neither will many other people.

>> Much as I enjoy watching the Tax Avoiders' Support Party self-immolate, it's a shame that
>> Cummings' antics and Johnson's support for him have deflected so much attention from the
>> facts behind their propaganda.

They didn't for me. I think in that paragraph you show that you want to believe that the current Government is wrong. Since none of us *know* then belief and wish to believe will always be the strongest drivers.

>> but I don't want to spend my last few years like that.
>> I'm fairly resigned to catching it
>> It's pointless staying alive for the grandchildren if we never see them anyway.

You mean let it take its course?

Does anybody think this virus will go away?
Does anybody think we will get a vaccine before next spring?
Do you think the country should do more lockdown that is necessary than try to keep things within capacity?

You want to isolate? Do so. Nobody is stopping you or anyone else from doing so., The Government is just not telling you to do so.

And in your post, other than the comment about testing, I didn't really read anything showing what the Government had done wrong.

I'm a grown up, I take responsibility for avoiding dangers depending on my opinion of my risk. I would not leave my house just because the Government hadn't told me to stay at home.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - James Loveless
"Does anybody think this virus will go away?"

Not in the way Trump claimed it would, which simply showed how much in denial he was and is. However, there are two more realistic scenarios: one, that the virus mutates and becomes either less infectious or less deadly. That is simply a vague possibility and not in any way useful when it comes to dealing with things as we now face them.

The second possibility is that the R rate stays well below 1 and eventually there are very few people carrying the infection, so that the risk of catching it is very small. For that to happen continued restrictions on movement/behaviour would need to be imposed, presumably for some time. As things stand, with tourist air travel now restarting and social distancing and other restrictons relaxing, the R rate may well stay much the same for the foreseeable future.

"Does anybody think we will get a vaccine before next spring?"

I have no idea about the time-scale, nor how effective a vaccine will be. Possibly it will, like the flu vaccine, have to be re-administered, maybe every few months. If the coronavirus mutates, new vaccines will be necessary.

"Do you think the country should do more lockdown that is necessary than try to keep things within capacity?"

If "within capacity" means "what the NHS can cope with", I'm not sure that's the right question. Clearly, the NHS was never totally overwhelmed by cases of the virus, though it may have been pushed harder than is wise. For the government, the balance must be between how many more deaths the public will accept and how much economic stagnation the country can stand.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
Sorry for your loss.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
Those two posts got switched around due to the way this site handles thread order. Sorry if it seems wrong. I am genuinely sorry for the loss suffered by the FC family.

We've had one ourselves, it's awful even from 8,000 miles away.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sat 6 Jun 20 at 18:54
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Fullchat
Thank you for the sentiments Smokie and Mark. My post was intended to be more about the Covoid journey, its impact and consequences.

Mark you are 100% correct in your observations and the future regarding this virus. We are shielded and I am for the best part conforming but it cant go on for much longer. I overhear very long girlie conversations on Zoom and it all revolves around the virus. Its become obsessive and totally consuming to some. We have to move on, use common sense and be practical. The risk can be minimised without becoming hermits.

But 'Be Alert' and 'Wash your hands!'
Last edited by: Fullchat on Sat 6 Jun 20 at 20:23
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero
My sympathies, Its a story I have heard from many, the inability to properly see someones passing is upsetting for many.

Its just one of the distressing consequences. My heart goes out to those who were diagnosed with an illness requiring a medical journey, like cancer, and having the process disrupted or stopped, with all the anxiety that brings, Some parents have been unable to see and support their children. I am lucky, my second bout of cancer treatment has progressed uninterrupted, but I know I would be anxious if the journey was disrupted.

Agree its time we stopped depending on government advice. We all know whats going on, what the risks are, what the steps required are, and how we interpret them for our own unique circumstances.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - legacylad
Sorry to read your sad news FC.

My 92yo mothers sister has been in a nursing home for 18 months, her dementia is worsening and it’s very sad she can no longer visit her sole surviving sister. I used to take her visiting every week, post Toby Carvery which was a highlight, then a garden centre visit. Most days my old mum forgets about not being able to visit or be taken out for lunch and she’s had cabin fever. She’s now decided to ‘stuff it’ and go out and walk the short distance into town...Post Office, Bank, Coop, local Tuesday market, wine gum emporium. She’s knows the risks but at her age is prepared to roll the dice in order to improve her life quality. I’m in her home twice daily helping with jobs, cleaning, tidying etc and with my busy social life...walking with friends, BBQs, socially distanced evening drinking with friends, there is a risk I’ll pass it on unknowingly, but we’ve talked about it and it’s not fair on her mental health to keep the old girl cooped up like a battery hen, or even worse as she’s on her own.
A few friends my age are totally paranoid. Both live out in the sticks. One won’t even walk out into the lane by her house. The other won’t go in any shops, walk far, has driven a short distance once in ten weeks and criticises anyone who walks through her village whom she doesn’t recognise. Her weekly highlight is Morrisons home delivery.
I just get on with my life as much as possible...I’ve even bought another nail brush to give them a good scrub after hand washing. And eating curry with chappatis sans cutlery doesn’t half stain your mitts.

Totally agree with Z. Assess our own circumstances and act accordingly.
But stay away from Giggleswick you unclean beggars.....
Last edited by: legacylad on Sat 6 Jun 20 at 20:58
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - sooty123
I wonder what sort impact the protests held over the last few days will have on the infection rate? I think there were some social distancing going however there looked to be a fair few that weren't.
      1  
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Bromptonaut
>> I wonder what sort impact the protests held over the last few days will have
>> on the infection rate? I think there were some social distancing going however there looked
>> to be a fair few that weren't.

It will be interesting to see if the protests or last weekend's beach antics have an 'echo' in Covid symptoms or diagnoses in a fortnight or so.

My guess would be not much. The demos only involve a few thousand people at least some of whom were masked and/or social distancing. Compared with the numbers in and out of London on a daily basis at peak 'R' I think the effect is miniscule.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - sooty123
snip quote. no need to quote everything when you reply

>> My guess would be not much. The demos only involve a few thousand people at
>> least some of whom were masked and/or social distancing. Compared with the numbers in and out of London on a daily basis at peak 'R' I think the effect is miniscule.

Certainly will be interesting, if as you suggest it's effect is miniscule then I think people might well think if they've got away with it, why shouldn't I do xyz if they can?
I think it's safe to say it'll be harder for the government to say no when there's a push for mass gatherings. Whether that's a good thing or not, I guess we'll find out.
Might turn out to be a handy little experiment to see what happens, for the government anyway.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 7 Jun 20 at 20:38
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Robin O'Reliant
Medical opinion is that the Cheltenham Festival and the Liverpool - Atletico football match were responsible for an upsurge in Covid 19 cases so I can't see how the latest mass gatherings can be any different. The Guardian were gleefully using both as a stick to beat the government for allowing them to go ahead. There is probably a fear in the media of being accused of racism if they bang on about it too much.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
According to the Italian and Chine authorities, seemingly confirmed elsewhere, less than 1% of the fatalities occur in people with no known pre-existing condition.

So, if you haven't got a pre-existing condition, and you don't go home to, or visit someone with, a pre-existing condition then WTF?

If you do have a pre-existing condition then be a big boy and look after yourself.

Frankly, from my point of view my parents and my family are isolated and safe. So I want the entire rest of the country to go out and rub against each other. As long as the Government uses lockdown to stop it breaking the health service then it is in our best interest for everybody else to be exposed, get ill and recover or not as quickly as possible.

Then the rest of us can get on with our lives.

It'll probably benefit the average IQ of the population as well.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 7 Jun 20 at 18:43
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Bromptonaut
>> Medical opinion is that the Cheltenham Festival and the Liverpool - Atletico football match were
>> responsible for an upsurge in Covid 19 cases so I can't see how the latest
>> mass gatherings can be any different.

They could be quite a bit different.

I suspect that although far from universal social distancing was practised and masks were worn by some at the demos. Nothing like as close together as in the stands etc at Cheltenham or at Anfield for the Athletico match. Both of those events also involved significant international travel and at Cheltenham the jockeys were flown in and out in choppers or small planes as they moved from one meeting to another.

Not saying there's no possibility of the demos involving infection or participants being a vector between places where rates of infection vary but not convinced it's on same scale as pre Covid where such things were not considered.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
>>I think it's safe to say it'll be harder for the government to say no when there's a push for mass gatherings. Whether that's a good thing or not, I guess we'll find out.

Right at the beginning Johnson said that there was no point bringing in the lockdown to early anyway because they don't stick indefinitely.

In Chile there are people who are starving with families who are starving. People who cannot pay utilities, food and other bills.

They're going back to work, whatever the Government says. And here we have people with guns trying to stop them. And increasingly failing to do so.

Increasingly the only people staying at home are those who can afford to do so.

We (my family) are distributing food parcels and encouraging others to do so. But obviously we barely even scrape the surface of the problem.

Lockdown *will* break everywhere. Lockdown *will* wreck the economy and hurt people.

Lockdown needs to be a minimalist activity targetted only at protecting the Health Services.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - sooty123
snip quote AGAIN.
>> Lockdown needs to be a minimalist activity targetted only at protecting the Health Services.

I don't disagree, I was thinking more of the timing and the trigger that opens it all up. Does the government lead or follow? How does the protests today feed into that?
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 7 Jun 20 at 20:39
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Netsur
Everything said above is correct but the government appears to have made the same mistake as the majority of the population in that it seems to be trying to stop the virus spreading and holds onto lockdown. Its as if they are subtly trying to burn the virus out. But you can't stop it spreading; all you can do is slow the transmission so that anyone who does get it and needs hospital intervention gets everything they need to survive.

Without any hospital intervention at all maybe 10% of the people who get the virus die. With intervention, maybe it is only 1%, as long as the intervention is in good time and as complete as it needs to be. But even with the best care, people will die and you cannot avoid that; a close friend of mine die in mid-April, and we was very aware of trying to avoid getting it due to an underlying condition.

So we might as well recognise now that the NHS is in a good place as far as COVID-19 is concerned and people understand social distancing. Therefore we might has well open up the economy fully, except for mass gatherings (which almost certainly cannot operate with social distancing and will fuel a spike), get some tax revenue into the government and wait until a vaccine arrives.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Terry
Lockdown was necessary as the rate of transmission and the number of people infected had the potential to completely overwhelm the NHS. With cases doubling every 3 days, a delay in lockdown of just a week would have filled the Nightingale hospitals to capacity.

Death rates would have increased markedly - even those who may have benefitted from a few days oxygen may not have been treated.

We now know a lot more about the virus, who is at risk, and how it can be managed.

- public tolerance for extended lockdown is limited
- lockdown is economic suicide
- it affects mainly those with other health problems and the elderly
- it has limited (but still some) impact on the young and healthy
- it will not be "beaten" until there is herd immunity either by vaccine or infection
- as time passes improved medical and drug intervention will probably reduce severity
- when the incidence of infection in the community falls, test track and trace can be effective
- thus far UK progress on TT&T has been less than impressive

The question is "where do we go from here":

- economic activity needs to be restarted asap subject only to effective TT&T
- all to return to work except those who are vulnerable and need shielding
- local and regional re-imposition of lockdown where necessary and for short periods
- slow re-introduction of mass events (sport, theatre etc) carefully monitored
- provision made for those who are vulnerable or need shielding - shopping, leisure etc

Elderly and vulnerable need to make their own assessment of personal risk appetite. For some this may mean remaining in semi or full isolation. For others (including me) it means assessing risks and acting accordingly. Currently this may mean being cautious for the next few months to see what happens to overall infection rates:

- little or no shopping (not my favourite sport anyway) bar DiY, garden centres etc
- avoid restaurants, pubs etc - although pub gardens probably ok
- see family and friends - albeit those who are known low risk anyway
- get outdoors - walking, cycling etc

Perhaps I have been fortunate and have found lockdown no great problem - we have a comfortable house and retired with no money problems. Main problem has been not seeing friends and famiiy + a sense of personal freedoms being constrained.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Lygonos
2 consecutive days with no deaths from CV in Scotland.

This is not because there are no infections, but that the great bulk of infections now are in the population cohort best able to survive it.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Mon 8 Jun 20 at 14:11
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero
The low hanging fruit has been picked
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Runfer D'Hills
"They" say that alcohol kills the virus, that smokers are far less likely to be infected, that being outdoors is safer and that social distancing helps.

So, being a homeless wino with a tobacco habit and unapproachable personal hygiene issues should be about as safe as it gets right?

Pretty much a valid career choice in certain parts of Scotland as I recall...

;-)
Last edited by: Runfer D'Hills on Mon 8 Jun 20 at 16:13
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
Manatee, you have mail.

edit: no you don't, I think the email address in your profile is not current. Could you email me please.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Wed 10 Jun 20 at 18:48
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Manatee
No FM2R, I've emailed you, I've got that account working again.
      1  
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
Total deaths measured by using excess deaths would be 59,100

[ www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries ]

Total infected could be 19,000,000

[ www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/over-25-of-the-uk-likely-to-have-had-covid-19-already/ ]

Giving an IFR of 0.3 compared to a current CFR of 14%.

Both articles are well worth a read.

I think an IFR of <0.5 is entirely likely with 99% of deaths occurring within a group who all have known pre-existing conditions and a certain amount of the remainder occurring in people with unknown pre-existing conditions.

We know that herd immunity, that much loved and fashionable phrase, is the way forward. So, since those between 20 & 60 with no pre-existing conditions are in little or no danger of anything other than an unpleasant time, lock down should be completely relaxed save for the need to keep the NHS below it's capacity. Far from trying to shame those who are out socialising, we should allow lockdown to gradually fall away amongst the non-vulnerable as long as they pay attention to the vulnerabilities of those around them.

If, on the other hand, you have pre-existing conditions then I'd recommend a nylon tent in a clean room for the next three months.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Manatee
>>We know that herd immunity, that much loved and fashionable phrase, is the way forward.

Vallance said yesterday the SAGE estimate is that 6.7% of us have had it, based on population testing for antibodies although he admits they need to do a few more.

If SAGE is right and if we go for herd immunity, possibly by default if we can't find a cure or a good vaccine, then - let's say we have 50,000 COVID dead now - we could end up with with 50000/6.7*70 deaths, about 522,000. Implied IFR 1.1%. That's not completely out of kilter with the estimates of 0.6%=0.9% that have been speculated on by the professionals.

If Manchester is right, and 28% are infected, then at 70% we could have 50000/28*70 = 125,000. That's roughly your 0.3% IFR.

That's just arithmetic. Could be way off especially if the people who have caught it so far are unrepresentative in any significant way.

99% of deaths just by age puts the cut off at about 45 i.e. 1% 44 or below. 89% are 65 or over. So it's quite possible that something near 99% will have at least one pre-existing chronic condition.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
>>If SAGE is right

Just as a general point, do be aware that there are two SAGE groups and the independent one is a lot less reliable and more sensational than the Government linked one.

Yes, if things remain constant than 500,000 may well happen. But, I think it is not unreasonable to believe that the most vulnerable are dying the most quickly and that there is a limit to how many vulnerable there are.

So as a gut feel, with no evidence, I would expect the fatality rate to decline substantially as it progressed.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Manatee
I assumed it was the government one, as it was Vallance.

>>it is not unreasonable to believe that the most vulnerable are dying the most quickly and that there is a limit to how many vulnerable there are

On the other hand, a lot of the vulnerable have been in virtual quarantine since 23rd March. There are about 12 million 65 and over, and maybe another 5 or 6 million below 65 who are 'vulnerable' and probably staying in.

We only go to the shop maybe once a week and for walks, keeping separation as far as possible.

The boss went to the doctor's pharmacy today where they lob the medicine out of the window!

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
One hears a lot about how Brits abroad are abandoned and uncared for, usually in the Daily Mail or similar.

So the British Embassy in Chile organised a charter flight up to Quito which flew out today to connect with a flight from Quito back to the UK. Eventually they agreed to carry other Europeans and anyone permanently resident in Europe since only 36 Brits were interested.

Even then they only carried 80-something.

Good for them for arranging it though.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - henry k
Some good news.
Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281

and
New Zealand's first Covid cases in 24 days came from UK
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53059633

".....two women from the same family, both of whom had travelled from the UK
and were given special permission to visit a dying parent."

It seems they were well tracked/monitored by NZ medics.
No mention if any fellow travellers etc got infected.
An unintentional trial of exposure/ transmission to others on a flight ?



       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
>>Some good news.
>>Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug.

This is good news, but read it with care. It is *only* beneficial in patients who are already in a serious condition and whilst it saves some, it is not all.

The trial said that for patients on ventilators one life was saved for every eight treated. (40% - 28% fatality rate)

For patients on oxygen one life was saved for every 25 treated. (25% - 20% fatality rate).

So a step forward, for sure. But not a miracle. Be nice to think it was the beginning of a leak around a floodgate though.

Interestingly, along with prednisone, dexamethasone is one of the drugs I already periodically take. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Or just a thing.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - tyrednemotional
>>
>> Interestingly, along with prednisone, dexamethasone is one of the drugs I already periodically take. Not
>> sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Or just a thing.
>>

...it probably helps to eke out the crack supply.....

;-)
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
I've never seen the attraction in recreational drugs. Probably a reaction to all the prescribed drugs I've been consuming over the years since I was little.

That or the fact that I am a control freak, at least as far as it concerns control of me..
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R

>>It seems they were well tracked/monitored by NZ medics.

"Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said it was clear that checks had not been not adequate in this case."

Well, something clearly went a bit awry. I'm amazed they were allowed to enter without a test.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
Ho hum.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-16/once-a-covid-role-model-chile-now-among-the-world-s-worst-hit

It was never a role-model, it just hadn't come home to roost yet.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
Coronavirus: What is the true death toll of the pandemic?

www.bbc.com/news/world-53073046
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Duncan
The BBC Radio 4 programme 'More or Less' examines the statistics. A fascinating listen. It's on Radio 4 9a.m. on Wednesdays for 2(?) more weeks, I think, or or course, good old podcast/catch up/BBC sounds, or whatever.

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b006qshd
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Terry
I am not convinced these figures and analysis are remotely informative.

In Western Europe, US, Japan and a few other countries government data is broadly reliable and comparable - probably +/- 10-20% due to collection processes, testing levels etc.

In countries where a command and control ethos takes priority over democratic process - eg: Russia, China - it is difficult to separate truth from government spin.

In undeveloped countries, war zones, etc there will be no effective way to measure the impact of CV-19. They may provide high quality health care to the wealthy but won't have a clue about what is going on in high density slums, favelas etc.

An example - Lagos Nigeria - population 17-21 million - the government can't agree what the figure is! Estimated 40% live below the poverty line - probably without adequate food, clean water, failing sewage systems, inadequate multigenerational households etc.

The only close comparators for the UK are probably France, Germany, Italy, Spain - similar size populations, similar social and economic development levels, democracies, climate, educational levels etc. And even then there are significant differences in age profiles, population densities.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - sherlock47
>>>n countries where a command and control ethos takes priority over democratic process <<<

Boris and his team of yes men ? Much of his presentation is spin - ok not as extreme as your examples, but food for thought?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
>>but food for thought?

Hardly. Unless you think totalitarian command & control and alleged spin are the same thing.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
No country measures COVID-19 deaths accurately.

It is mostly not possible to *know* with certainty so judgement calls are made, and there is not much consistency there.

Eventually it will be extrapolated from excess deaths.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - martin aston
So we are abandoning the government tracing App because the trial found that Apple devices don’t like third party Apps. Who knew?

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
Change your mind, listen to opinions, even realise that you were wrong and try to do better, and everybody represents it as a "U-Turn" and tries to shame you for doing it and to seek personal glory claiming responsibility for forcing you into it.

What a delightful media read by delightful people.

I wonder why politicians resist changing their minds.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Kevin
>So we are abandoning the government tracing App..

Matthew Gould, the CEO of NHSX should be fired immediately for this money wasting ego trip.

He pushed ahead with the half baked idea that they could develop their own contact tracing app and claimed that it would be better than the API developed by Apple and Google who wrote the devices operating systems.
He was told that it wouldn't work because Apple and Google had introduced security features to specifically prevent the type of data slurp that the NHSX app needed to work.
He was told that the chances of Google and Apple disabling those security features just for his poorly designed one-off app were precisely zero.
He was told that the app was crippled-by-design and would not work outside the UK.
He was told that anyone who read and understood the Privacy Statement would tell him to stick it where the sun don't shine. He admitted to a Govt. panel that users would have absolutely no control over their data. That it would be held on a central server and never deleted. It would be used for other unrelated purposes and NHSX intended to sell the data to any Tom, Dick or Harry who wanted it.

He should now be told to clear his desk and take a walk.
Last edited by: Kevin on Thu 18 Jun 20 at 23:26
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
Wow, I had no idea it was that bad.

>> NHSX intended to sell the data....

Was that a known thing?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Kevin
It was widely reported on tech web sites but curiously ignored by mainstream media.

search.theregister.com/?q=nhsx

When Gould tried to publicly justify the app and their intentions for use of the collected data he was shot down in flames by software engineers, privacy campaigners and lawyers.

If you read NHX's latest statements about data privacy on their website it's a classic example of weasel words and deliberately misleading information.

Oh, and they haven't cocked up with their app. It's now moving to Phase 2, combining the work already done by NHSX with the Apple and Google API. That's one helluva lot of money and effort for an app icon because that's pretty much all they'll be able to carry over from what they have already.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Robin O'Reliant
>> No country measures COVID-19 deaths accurately.
>>
>>
And more than a few countries lie through their teeth about the figures. All totalitarian states are certain to conceal the truth to perpetuate the myth of the happy, smiling and well fed workforce thanks to the policies of whichever nutter is in charge.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Terry
The media are largely responsible for the dire state of politics in this country.

The tracing app was supposed to be world beating. Hancock tells us that ours is great at measuring distance and Apple/Google good at the rest, so they are joining forces. Plausible but conveniently obscures the possibility someone got it wrong to start with.

Honesty does not pay - the media relish the idea of finding someone to blame, rather than finding the solution. So politicians varnish the reality in the hope of avoiding media pressure.

Another example - school meals for kids in the summer holidays. Get criticised for not giving the money - skinflint, they're children, hunger etc. Give the money and it's a U turn - the government are incapable of consistent policies etc.

Even the Cummings affair was a piece of disproportionate stirring by the media. Irrespective of the rights or wrongs of the eyesight testing trip, there were far more important issues to report upon. The media simply wanted column inches and viewer numbers so they conducted a witchhunt.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
>>the media relish the idea of finding someone to blame

Yes they do. And at a personal level they enjoy the sense of "victory".
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Fullchat
Agreed. If you subscribe to this and believe they are digging an ever deeper hole for the welfare and morale of this country how do you persuade them provide fair and balanced reports without agendas?
Control of the the freedoms of the press are seen as a big no no in a free and democratic society so they and their masters can do as they like and any interference interpreted as political control.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
>> how do you persuade them provide fair and balanced reports without agendas?

You convince the paying public to stop paying for that type of reporting.

I realise, and frequently need reminding, that the vast majority of the world is decent. It's so easy to take the tiny yet noisy minority so beloved by the media and think that the world is really like that.

It isn't.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Fullchat
"I realise, and frequently need reminding, that the vast majority of the world is decent. It's so easy to take the tiny yet noisy minority so beloved by the media and think that the world is really like that.

It isn't."

Of course you are correct. Its spending a career with depravity and the worst of human nature that can give a jaded view. As Mrs FC said on retirement. "I just want to get into that bubble where they greater percentage of society are."
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
>>a career with depravity and the worst of human nature

I can only imagine. 15 months of debt collecting coloured my outlook for years, so a career of lowlifes must be very difficult to manage.

Some of my family are/were police, my uncles were also ex MPs. I can't say any of them have/had a happy, optimistic outlook on life.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero

>> Some of my family are/were police, my uncles were also ex MPs. I can't say
>> any of them have/had a happy, optimistic outlook on life.

Yeah, not sure why we vote for the miserable berleeders.


OH! you mean........

       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero

>> The tracing app was supposed to be world beating. Hancock tells us that ours is
>> great at measuring distance and Apple/Google good at the rest, so they are joining forces.
>> Plausible but conveniently obscures the possibility someone got it wrong to start with.


40 years in the business has convinced me that Government is utterly appalling at any IT project, big or small. Even if its completely outsourced they can't help but ignorantly interfere and screw it up.

Track and trace by mobile phone will NEVER work 100% reliably in any country, except China which has completely different control over the equipment and infrastructure. Control all of us in the west consider completely unacceptable.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - martin aston
I am bemused that Dido Harding is fronting up the App. She is a businesswoman who happened to end up at Talktalk before shuffling off from there after a security and customer disaster. She is not a technical expert and for her to occupy the expert podium at the daily press conferences is odd to say the least given the undoubted expertise we usually see in that spot.

I feel a bit sorry for her as she must dread a real techie question. At least Hancock et al can defer to the experts or take it away. I wonder if she has been set up to fail?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Bromptonaut
>> Another example - school meals for kids in the summer holidays. Get criticised for not
>> giving the money - skinflint, they're children, hunger etc. Give the money and it's a
>> U turn - the government are incapable of consistent policies etc.

The trouble here is that there seems to be a command/control culture where everything is controlled from No10. It's not unique to Johnson and was arguably pioneered by Blair but it's destructive of sensible decision making.

The government's initial response was to stick to its guns and stick with the original (indefensible) decision, before Marcus Radford got involved, not to continue the voucher scheme in the summer holidays. When Radford's letter hit the headlines MPs, including many on the new ones who never expected to be elected, were sent out on local and national media to defend that position.

Once it was recognised that Radford's very well reasoned point was made from personal experience and caught the public sympathy those people were hung out to dry and made to look silly.

Johnson's statement that he'd not been aware and changed tack as soon as he knew is a lie and/or throws his official spokesman under a bus; the No10 line was very clearly no change.

Therese Coffey (DWP Minister) has been out and about trying to explain why the Benefit Cap makes sense (it never did). One of its effects is to mean that the much publicised increase in the Standard Allowances in Universal Credit and the re-valorisation of the ceilings for private sector rents are simply not reaching the people for whom they were intended.

It made little sense as a tool to get people back into work when there were jobs to go to. It defies logic when not only are jobs in short supply but the requirement to seek work at all is suspended (until 29 June at least.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Bromptonaut
>> Therese Coffey (DWP Minister) has been out and about trying to explain why the Benefit
>> Cap makes sense (it never did). One of its effects is to mean that the
>> much publicised increase in the Standard Allowances in Universal Credit and the re-valorisation of the
>> ceilings for private sector rents are simply not reaching the people for whom they were
>> intended.

When I wrote this yesterday I didn't know that the Work and Pensions Select Committee would report on the subject today.

publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm5801/cmselect/cmworpen/178/17808.htm#_idTextAnchor060

The map showing areas where private sector rents are likely to bite average sized families is particularly telling.

Round here the shortfall for a single parent with two teenage children, one of each sex in a three bed property is approx £200/month.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - sherlock47
Not sure that this is free to view - they limit no of weekly accesses .

www.economist.com/leaders/2020/06/18/britain-has-the-wrong-government-for-the-covid-crisis?fsrc=newsletter&utm_campaign=the-economist-today&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=2020-06-19&utm_content=article-link-1

I have left the full address to establsh the source credibilty.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Duncan
>> Not sure that this is free to view - they limit no of weekly accesses

I read through it without problem.

The final paragraph of the article:-

"The pandemic has many lessons for the government, which the inevitable public inquiry will surely clarify. Here is one for voters: when choosing a person or party to vote for, do not underestimate the importance of ordinary, decent competence".

Crucial sentence - When choosing a person or party to vote for, do not underestimate the importance of ordinary, decent competence.

What choice was there? Boris Johnson, or Jeremy Corbyn? Can I have a think about that for a moment? I know dedicated Labour supporters who couldn't let themselves vote for Corbyn!

Yes, yes, I know we actually vote for our local constituency candidate, but the actuality is that we vote for the leader.

So whose fault is it? Well, it's the fault of the Labour Party - of course! If they had a sensible candidate as leader - say, Keir Starmer - I think Labour could well have won the last General election, then whatever mess was, or wasn't, made of handling Covid19 it would have been their fault. As it is, it's still their fault.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Manatee
>>So whose fault is it? Well, it's the fault of the Labour Party

There something in that. Seems to me it's not unusual for elections to be lost rather than won. Without a Falklands factor, the electorate tires of the incumbents and the opposition then needs only to be there, looking credible, and running a half decent campaign to capitalize on it.

Johnson should have been a sitting duck, a seemingly congenital liar who lies even when the truth would do the job, powered by naked ambition and surrounded by snakes, yet he got a landslide.

One way or another, Corbyn's presence undermined Labour's chances. He couldn't help the charisma bypass or the orchestrated smears but he just never cut through to any except the faithful. Of course it wasn't just him, Labour had allowed the antisemitism blame game and endless other internecine disagreements between the centre and the largely entryist left to eat away at its credibility.

We are seeing for now the opposite effect with Starmer who is no firebrand or even an exceptional orator, but has himself under control, has a plan, puts in the hard yards, and so far has the troublemakers just about under control too. He looks solid, and Johnson's empty bluster is much more exposed than it was by the bumbling Corbyn. But Labour's enemies within are still plotting, the Conservatives are already getting ready to depose and replace Johnson who looks ready to implode, and 2024 is a long way off.
Last edited by: Manatee on Sat 20 Jun 20 at 10:53
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero
you are all forgetting the Brexit factor. A very firm firm position on Brexit would get you elected

If you firmly said Brexit will happen on X whatever, you would have been elected.

If you firmly said Brexit will be cancelled ASAP you would have been elected.

Brexit yes or no, didnt matter, but your ability to get a firm position over did.

Corbyn didnt, Starmer wouldnt have been able to, because the labour party didnt and still dont have a position.


And as for covid, all and any accusations of failure are all with the benefit of hindsight, that no-one had 5 months ago. So its not valid.
Last edited by: Zero on Sat 20 Jun 20 at 11:04
      2  
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Lygonos
>> all and any accusations of failure are all with the benefit of hindsight

Many, yes, but not all.

The delay about entering lockdown cost 10s of thousands of lives that may ultimately not have been lost (time will tell - dexamethasone appears to reduce mortality by about 20-25% - there is benefit in delaying infections over and above breaking NHS capacity).

People were watching Italy and ready for lockdown 10-14 days before it was utilised. That is the main reason we're now top of the pile in Europe for deaths (as well as discharging recovering/untested people into care homes).

Tiresomely predictable, and I admit I was one of the initial "meh" guys until I saw Italy on the rise.

It's unfair to blame HMG entirely although they obviously captain the ship on the social requirements - donghead openly shaking hands in hospitals, and talking about "it might be best for the country to take the infection on the chin" shows an innate disregard for deaths in the population he leads, or at least an inability to think something through before blurting out a pronouncement - he really seems to think he's a wartime leader out for victory.

You don't "win" with a virus - you protect and mitigate.
      1  
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - smokie
"ready for lockdown 10-14 days before it was utilised. "

We decided to leave Portugal on or around 15 March as it was pretty close to full lockdown and it seemed borders might close for an indeterminate period. The state of emergency was announced there on 18 March but by 15th the bars and restaurants had been shut for some days and we weren't allowed to drive anywhere for pleasure and the shops had restrictions. So I'd guess lockdown started there around 10th/11th.

It didn't start here until March 23. However it's easy to say with hindsight that the govt took a bad decision (herd immunity) but I'm not sure how much you can fault them without the benefit of hindsight.

Another matter they raise in the article id PPE. This is a global shortage which still exists (500 dead Russian doctors announced this week due to shortage) and I'm not sure how the govt/NHS could have done much better. It's easy to say they should have had more in stock but if the govt had announced last summer they were spending £xm on PPE just in case, the Mail and it's readership would have gone apoplectic. There are any number of unlikely disasters they could provide for but they all take resources (also remember some complained when they were given out of date masks).

I'm not sure Boris is the man he was before he was ill and I wasn't keen on him then, but I don't think overall they have done so badly in the circumstances. I don;'t really get why our numbers are quite so bad though.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Robin O'Reliant
>>
>> I don;'t really get why our numbers are quite so bad though.
>>

If indeed they are bad in comparison to other developed countries. How numbers of Covid deaths are recorded seems to vary quite a bit from country to country, and I think it will be a long time before we find out anything like the truth.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Manatee
>> >>
>> >> I don;'t really get why our numbers are quite so bad though.
>> >>
>>
>> If indeed they are bad in comparison to other developed countries. How numbers of Covid
>> deaths are recorded seems to vary quite a bit from country to country, and I
>> think it will be a long time before we find out anything like the truth.

'Excess deaths' supports the idea that we are the worst in Europe. E.g. Belgium's per capita deaths are 'worse' but theirs are about equal to their statistically excess deaths. Ours are about 25,000 under. I think this was in one of the BBC stats roundups but I haven't checked it.

Of course there's a tendency to understate - as we do.

Some of the blame relates to discharging people into care homes. To be fair to the government, this seems to have been an NHS failure not a policy from the top.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - sooty123
Corbyn didnt, Starmer wouldnt have been able to, because the labour party didnt and still
>> dont have a position.
>>

I think that's one of the reasons why he's keeping his head down over the negotiations, there's little to gain for labour. Realistically they aren't going to be in power until the late 2020s, so best to wait it out and move on to firmer ground policy wise when it's all done and dusted.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sat 20 Jun 20 at 12:17
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Terry
Corbyn is the reason Labour so overwhelmingly lost the last election. Whether with Starmer it would have been a Labour majority is more open to debate.

As far as Brexit is concerned, had the opposition (Labour, SNP, Libdems etc) got their act together we may have had a further referendum - outcome unpredictable. So Remainers have only their political representatives to blame, and Brexiteers should be relived that Boris bluster and positivity won the day.

Looking forward, Starmer seems a far more formidable opponent than his predecessor. What happens in 2024 is now up for grabs. Any negative Brexit outcomes will be blamed on CV-19 (true or not), and how quickly normal economic social and economic activity is resumed.

A second term for Boris (or ??) may depend on the outcome from inevitable public enquiries. There will almost certainly have some serious criticisms. Boris may try to delay the process so it reports after the next election - CV-19 issues are huge. Note that Grenfall Tower 3 years on still isn't complete, and Chilcott Iraq report took more than a decade!



       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Manatee
I didn't forget Brexit, which Corbyn's supporters prefer to blame. It was IMO the second biggest issue. It was also tied to Corbyn's dithery persona because nobody knew what his position really was.

I think it's unsustainable to argue that the management of COVID can't be criticised until it's all over. Although it might yet end differently, I find it difficult to see how a winning strategy can rest on getting the most deaths in early.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - CGNorwich

Farage is the US

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8442863/amp/Nigel-Farage-travels-America-ahead-Trump-rally-despite-ban.html is in the US

Last edited by: CGNorwich on Sat 20 Jun 20 at 20:23
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - zippy
Does this mean that he will have to quarantine for 14 days on his return. Can that please include a quarantine from social media posting too?
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 21 Jun 20 at 03:07
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Duncan

>> Does this mean that he will have to quarantine for 14 days on his return.
>> Can that please include a quarantine from social media posting too?

It depends upon your definition of 'social media', but you could refrain from using 'social media'?

No?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Duncan
Some of the figures for Chile are matching the UK - allowing for different population size.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/chile/
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
The current suggestion from MinSal* is that the fatality figures are about half what they should be. Currently 4,000 ish there are apparently another 3,700 ish suspected.

Whereas the UK is almost certainly over counting.

The current rate per mil/pop is 12,600 as opposed to 4,400 for the UK.

We have been in full quarantine for 6 weeks now and there is no end in sight, however the figures keep getting worse. We have violent and destructive riots and military on the streets.

I know where I'd rather be, and it's not here.


*Ministry of Health
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Manatee

>> Whereas the UK is almost certainly over counting.

Possible of course although the daily figure is still deaths in hospital with positive test? Excess death are about 50% additional.

The Belgians, the only proper European country with a notionally higher death rate than UK, has a deaths figure that is about equal to excess deaths - I think that might even be the basis for it but I'm not sure, I read something but didn't retain it properly.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - martin aston
The U.K.reports two figures daily. The first at about 2.00pm is the NHS figure for hospital deaths recorded up to 5.00 pm the previous day. Recorded deaths include people who died on days up to that point. At about 4.00 the Dept of Health issues composite figures of deaths recorded in all settings.

Some countries (inc Spain?) only report deaths in the previous 24 hours.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
Chile tries to attribute deaths to the day on which death occurred. This seems to entail about 7 - 10 days of figures being amended each day.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Terry
Three types of Covid statistics:

The political single state where elections are a formality for public consumption - includes Russia and China. They may know the figures with some precision but there is no confidence that what they have told the rest of the world is the same - they make things up for political advantage!

Economically struggling war torn and developing nations - they simply don't know or have the infrastructure and systems to know what is going on in the wider population in shanty towns, remote areas etc. They don't have the hospitals, doctors etc to treat all affected anyway. Their statistics are just about worthless.

The broadly OK statistics come mainly from Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia and only a few others. There will be differences in how the data is counted and collected - so I would say it is probaby right +/- 10-15%
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Lygonos
Scotland is currently doing ~5000 tests per day, with about 15-20 (0.3-0.4%) positive results daily.

Let's see how long a second wave takes to kick off - though the difference between now and back in March is we are now able to test contacts rapidly.

The biggest risk for uncontrolled outbreaks are likely to be mass transit systems, hence face coverings are now mandatory on public transport in Scotland.



       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - CGNorwich
>> Scotland is currently doing ~5000 tests per day, with about 15-20 (0.3-0.4%) positive results daily.

That seems quite low assuming that those tested are contacts of those wih the virus. The rate in the population as a whole is presumably lower.

Incidentally is it possibile to have the virus and test negative? I know of somebody who has displayed all the symptoms of the disease, cough, fever headaches and worked in the care sector but has had three test all of which were negative although her doctors is convinced she has had the illness.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 23 Jun 20 at 13:16
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - smokie
I understand that the test itself is pretty infallible but apparently it is quite possible that not taking it correctly can produce a false negative. This is more likely (and possibly quite likely) in a self administered test as you have to stick the swab down your throat till it is really uncomfortable, so if people don't do that properly then it may give a false result. Also you use the same stick to poke right up your nose.

SWMBO did one and was nearly sick so I think she did it OK.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - zippy
>> Incidentally is it possibile to have the virus and test negative? I know of somebody
>> who has displayed all the symptoms of the disease, cough, fever headaches and worked in
>> the care sector but has had three test all of which were negative although her
>> doctors is convinced she has had the illness.
>>

That’s certainly Miss Z’s as well as the view of a number if her colleagues.

Perhaps faulty tests or faulty procedures gathering the sample?
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - sooty123
I think that's why there's hope of a simple saliva test that can be posted out to you. Much less likely for people to do it wrong.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - henry k
>> I think that's why there's hope of a simple saliva test that can be posted
>> out to you. Much less likely for people to do it wrong.
>>
I will be doing a home blood test on Monday.
I will not be told the results as it is for the Biobank.
We are still in isolation so have no concerns anyway.

My daughter has had the antibody test that confirmed she had the virus.
( Now one "pretty" mask for commuting then swap it for PPE mask at the hospital entrance )
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - sooty123
>> >> I think that's why there's hope of a simple saliva test that can be
>> posted
>> >> out to you. Much less likely for people to do it wrong.
>> >>
>> I will be doing a home blood test on Monday.
>> I will not be told the results as it is for the Biobank.
>> We are still in isolation so have no concerns anyway.

I just looked them, never heard of them before. How did you get involved with them?


>> My daughter has had the antibody test that confirmed she had the virus.
>> ( Now one "pretty" mask for commuting then swap it for PPE mask at the
>> hospital entrance )
>>

Are they wide spread yet or just for NHS staff etc still? Quite like to know if the oh and daughter have had it.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - henry k
>>I just looked them, never heard of them before. How did you get involved with them?
I was recruited over 10 years ago. We had several hours of our data being gathered.
Periodically I get contacted online with a questionaire to complete.

I recently had 6 hours of tests/ MRI scans with me doing mental tasks while being "cooked"
This was exceptional.

>> ( Now one "pretty" mask for commuting then swap it for PPE mask at the hospital entrance )
Are they wide spread yet or just for NHS staff etc still?
Buy your own commuting mask.
They are becoming a fashion statement .
www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/a32631070/nancy-pelosi-mask-matching/

Sire if you are missing out ?
preview.tinyurl.com/ycb893ky
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - smokie
I have two made out of Rolling Stones fabric not unlike this www.ebay.com/itm/113710933372 but fewer tongues and more spaced out
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Bromptonaut
>> That’s certainly Miss Z’s as well as the view of a number if her colleagues.

My daughter, who works in NHS, and her husband both had symptoms. Both were tested at a drive in centre and came back negative. First reaction of both daughter and my sister, who works in NHS as well but in a completely different role, was around false negatives for self administered tests.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - martin aston
Mrs and I both contribute to the “COVID 19 Symptom study”” which involves Kings College and the NHS. I won’t post a link but the App is easily found. One registered it’s about 30 secs a day to just login and report if you have any symptoms. Once in a while it asks you more detailed questions but again it’s only a minute of your time.

We were recommended it by an NHS nurse as it helps research and, should you have symptoms, it links to the NHS site where you can opt for a testing centre or home test.

I am surprised it’s not better publicised but I assume it’s because they just need a sample group and they have a few million contributors already.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - smokie
Yup, SWMBO and I have been doing that since early days, and it was as a result of her responses to that that she was sent for a test (she reported two days of the trots).

I don't see why we oughtn't post a link.

covid19.joinzoe.com/
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero
I've had one test done by the hospital last month, today done another (done by my nurse wife) for the Imperial College Wave 2 study, and I have another pre hospital admission test on Saturday.

If you dont feel like vomiting while they are swabbing your tonsils, it aint being done right..
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Lygonos
>>If you dont feel like vomiting while they are swabbing your tonsils, it aint being done right..

And you're eyes should probably be watering after having a 4 inch cotton bud poked as far into your nose as it can reach.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero
>> I've had one test done by the hospital last month, today done another (done by
>> my nurse wife) for the Imperial College Wave 2 study,

Which was negative.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - smokie
I think you said nurse wife was assigned to the Excel hospital - was she called up for active service in the end? I can't remember if that ever had patients...

A project manager colleague from some years back volunteered for NHS project management role to get IT working for one of the northern hospitals and, probably as a result though you can't be sure, has copped a nasty bout of the virus - in itself it seems to have passed but odd swellings and infections have been abounding for the past two weeks.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Bromptonaut
>> it seems to have passed but odd swellings and infections have been abounding for the
>> past two weeks.

Complications post 'recovery' seem to be an emerging issue. Mrs B subscribes to New Scientist which in which repeated articles describe people's continuing struggles with the sort of symptoms you describe.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero

>> Complications post 'recovery' seem to be an emerging issue. Mrs B subscribes to New Scientist
>> which in which repeated articles describe people's continuing struggles with the sort of symptoms you
>> describe.

Headly court, not far from me, used to be the Armed Forces mobility rehabilitation centre, they moved to the midlands somewhere, and its been repurposed by the NHS for Covid rehabilitation, many of who cant walk.
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Zero
>> I think you said nurse wife was assigned to the Excel hospital - was she
>> called up for active service in the end? I can't remember if that ever had
>> patients...

No she backfilled at our local NHS trust, when staff were moved to covid wards and to Nightingale

She has had to stop tho when I was diagnosed with bladder tumours, too risky for me and my treatment schedule.

Son went to Nightingale to install and calibrate the equipment monitoring. At most I think they peaked at 90 patients
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - Bromptonaut
>> it seems to have passed but odd swellings and infections have been abounding for the
>> past two weeks.

Article on Guardian website:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/28/coronavirus-long-haulers-infectious-disease-testing
       
 Coronavirus - Volume 20 - No FM2R
This is quite interesting though whether or not it is cheering is a different matter.

On the chart of vaccine alternatives if you click the link then it will take you to the study page and give you timescale data.

www.who.int/publications/m/item/draft-landscape-of-covid-19-candidate-vaccines
       
 Wetherspoons - Duncan
Daily Mash

Tim Martin and five other reasons not to go back to Wetherspoons

tinyurl.com/yacas8sw

Last edited by: smokie on Sun 28 Jun 20 at 17:28
       
 Oh Carp - zippy
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53218704

Just when we though it was safe - Virus 2 - the revenge!
       
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