The original budget, which wasn't great, assumed an oil price of $100 a barrel. It's currently $37 and BP believe it will average $55 over the next 30 years.
If this continues North Sea oil, which is expensive, will no longer be viable or required.
Ironically of course it will make Scotland even more expensive to maintain and no doubt some English groups will seize upon that if the Scottish Independents make too much noise.
A case of "be careful what you wish for" I suspect..
Oil Price:
www.bbc.com/news/business-53047894
Viability of North Sea
oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/33-Of-North-Sea-Oil-Is-Now-Too-Expensive-To-Extract.html
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Don't forget the real diehards up there are worse than any brexiteers with their desire for "freedom"
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I have no doubt.
But if they're not careful there'll be a contingent of English on their side and their opponents will be other Scotch.
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I don't think it'll change anything at all with regards Scottish independence, it's for more a question of 'being ' of who they are and want to be. Commodity prices are just detail to the arguments nothing more. It might shift a few people on the edges of the argument but I doubt they'll be wholesale changes of opinion based on the commodity prices.
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>> But if they're not careful there'll be a contingent of English on their side and
>> their opponents will be other Scotch.
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I think there's always been that element in both countries, certainly at the last vote there were people in England who wanted them to be independent.
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I agree it won't change much in the way of "want". But it'll change the reality of doing it and for some, though they will continue to want it, it will be too hard, too difficult or just not possible.
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Non Scots often underestimate the deep rooted feelings that many Scots have on independence. Economic arguments don’t necessarily swing it. The emotional pull of being a Scot is strong.
For example my Scottish education spent as much time on Scottish history as it did on wider UK history. My recollection is that it was a bit romanticised, particularly at primary school. Whether by accident or design this is powerful indoctrination.
I know the EU has been lukewarm on letting an independent Scotland join in its own right. However if they could enable it and support the economy. It’s another way of punishing the rest UK for the Brexit decision.
EU failure to support an independent Scotland would open the way for Russia and China to “invest”. So much for meaningful independence then.
While I am against independence I don’t dismiss those who want it. Nor do I underestimate the impact it would have in the rest of the UK. So the wider UK population might need to think a bit more widely rather than just see it as a purely Scottish issue.
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Not a Scot but I'd agree with Martin; the fact that an independent Scotland my struggle economically (or even be shown empirically to be a basket case) will not stop the vision of independence or its political appeal.
Ms Sturgeon and her successors will still have the electoral wind in their sails.
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>> may struggle economically (or even be shown empirically to be a basket case) will not stop
>> the vision of independence or its political appeal.
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c.f. Brexit.
(TBH, to counter the economic arguments, Scot Nats will continue to dangle the carrot of rejoining the EU after Brexit and independence, to ameliorate any of the economic effects on Scotland, and the whole of the UK)
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Like Martin, I'm also ( still ) not a supporter of Scottish independence, but I know a lot of people who voted against it last time who would vote in favour of it now.
The analogy I would use is that of a spouse who feels that they are in a bad and toxic marriage. They have had the chance to walk away before, but stayed because of the kids and the financial implications of divorce. But now, they feel like no matter how tough it would make their lives in the short term, it's just not where they want to be anymore. They no longer recognise their partner as the person they once knew, and are willing to take their chances.
It's a difficult mindset to alter, despite the logical arguments against it. I think it would be a great shame if there was a parting of the ways, but I do have a certain sympathy with those who feel it is the only, if regrettable, remaining course of action.
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Runfer, as a Scotman living in Scotland, that is the perfect analogy! Much as I would love indie, I think reality is it will never happen. Most of you will not be too close to Scottish politics and what is happening outiwth Covid, but there are serious challenges for the SNP going forward.
1. You may have heard of a recent court case with Alex Salmond on various sexual harrassment claims whilst he was First Minister. He was found not guilty and he is after some blood. There is a distinct split in the SNP between Nicola and Alex supporters.
2. SNP are planning to go full scale ahead on gender identity and this is causing lots of grief. JK Rowling recently got a lot of abuse from Trans groups about some twitter posts and she then issued an "essay" explaining her position. To put it very simply, SNP are suggesting that you can self identify - if you want to be known as female, be female , and start using female toilets, changing rooms etc. Although not directly aimed at SNP, Rowlings does not agree with this.
3. There is a sectarian element to the indie vote as well. The majority of the Rangers FC fans / Orange Order / loyalist type groups are fiercely anti independence. They are very "Rule Britannia", serve the queen etc. This is a stumbling block for the independence movement to try and argue the cause without bringing religion into the process (especially in the West of Scotland - apparently Glasgow had more Orange Order parades last year than Belfast). For the Catholic / Irish descendants / Celtic etc, there are historical links to Ireland and the uprisings there to get independence. So some support for Scottish Independence from these quarters!
4. Not all SNP voters are indie supporters - SNP are the "left" party in Scotland. For many years now Labour have been totally lost as a cause up here, without any real direction and seen as a branch office of Labour UK. Many traditional Labour voters (like myself) moved to SNP years ago when it became obvious that Labour lacked direction and were trying to be more centre than left. Their final nail in the coffin was uniting with the Tories forming "Better Together" in the independence vote.
Outwith the above, other issues include the fact that England is our biggest export country so if we get independence, and then maybe try and get in to EU, then things could get very complicated. As soon as Brexit vote was announced, I felt that this was the end of the indie chances.
But, one thing for sure, the best motivator for Scottish Independence is still what we see from Westminster and the Lords!
Finally, for reason 1 above, I would not be surprised in the slightest if Nicola resigned after the Covid pandemic has gone away. She has fronted up to the Scottish people from day one, doing the daily briefings every weekday, being available to all media from Piers Morgan to local radio stations with questions from kids. Contrast that with Boris and you could argue who is right and who is wrong, should you as the leader be leading from the front or be so good you have a team to delegate to. She must be absolutely knackered and if there is an internal fight coming from Salmonds side, I am not sure that she will have the strength, or motivation to take it on.
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If [your perception of] your history with your rulers is that you have been done over for centuries and it's still happening then, emotionally, you'll want independence. What happens after that is for another day.
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Manatee, there is a lot of resentment for sure. However it’s a union. If you are characterising the English as the rulers and the Scots the ruled, it’s probably not terminology that will get you a hearty welcome in a Glasgow bar when they re-open.
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But it does reflect how many Scots think.
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You can have a debate about whether history creates a debt, or whether we are where we are, but once people have got their dander up they will look at the history of the clearances for example and decide that they are owed, and the history becomes a supporting argument.
Perhaps we should go straight for the truth commission and save having another rebellion.
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>> But it does reflect how many Scots think.
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Do you mean that many Scots think the English are the rulers, or
That many Scots think that the English think that?
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Probably a bit of both tbh.
On a strict country basis we are ruled from another country. And within that parliament you see regular examples of where many MPs don’t have much time for Scotland
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>> they feel like no matter how tough it would make their lives in the short term
But surely if Scotland were to leave the UK it's life would become unbearably awful.
Would that same woman leave if she knew it meant living on the streets with no real hope of ever leaving that street?
Some would, I expect. But a lot less than would have left when they were expecting loads of money from the oil industry in the divorce agreement.
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Surely the end of Scottish independence? - commerdriver
