Non-motoring > Coronavirus - Volume 21
Thread Author: VxFan Replies: 122

 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - VxFan

Ongoing debate.

609680
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 30 Jun 20 at 15:12
 Leicester - Zero
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371

All we need now is for Trump to build a wall round it.
 Leicester - zippy
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leicestershire-53229371
>>
>> All we need now is for Trump to build a wall round it.
>>

I've been to Leicester. Would anybody notice!? ;-)
 Leicester - No FM2R
House prices outside the wall would go up.
 Leicester - Zero
>> House prices outside the wall would go up.

Waitrose will be outside the wall.
 Leicester - Manatee
Looks a serious concern. Clearly not predicted, or acted on early enough. Hancock says 10% of new (detected) cases are in Leicester. Sources say it was evident over a week ago.

The story doesn't change. Focus on party, propaganda, politics. A fish rots from the head. Anybody know who the head is? Johnson looks head-less.
 Leicester - Duncan
>> Looks a serious concern. Clearly not predicted, or acted on early enough. Hancock says 10%
>> of new (detected) cases are in Leicester. Sources say it was evident over a week
>> ago.
>>
>> The story doesn't change. Focus on party, propaganda, politics. A fish rots from the head.
>> Anybody know who the head is? Johnson looks head-less.

Leaving the tired cliches to one side.

Is it possible that residents of a particular area are more likely to disregard advice or regulations regarding lockdown, social distancing, and the like?
 Leicester - tyrednemotional
>> Leaving the tired cliches to one side.
>>
>> Is it possible that residents of a particular area are more likely to disregard advice
>> or regulations regarding lockdown, social distancing, and the like?
>>

...leaving the casual racism to one side....

Yes, Whitehall for one.
 Leicester - Duncan
I don't think my post had any racism in it, casual or otherwise.

I could be accused, probably fairly, of elitism, or suggesting that one area might have a higher average IQ than another, and therefore would be more likely to comply with lockdown regulations than another and possibly have a lower re-infection rate than another area.

But racism? No.
 Leicester - Zero

>> ...leaving the casual racism to one side....

I don think anyone can accuse Duncan of being casual about his racism or snobbery.
 Leicester - Zero
>> >> Leaving the tired cliches to one side.
>> >>
>> >> Is it possible that residents of a particular area are more likely to disregard
>> advice
>> >> or regulations regarding lockdown, social distancing, and the like?

Probably not "likely to disregard" more like "less able to adhere to" social distancing.
 Leicester - Duncan
>> Probably not "likely to disregard" more like "less able to adhere to" social distancing.

I don't get the "less able to", bit.

As an e.g. consider the celebrations following Liverpool FC win of the Premier League? Were the supporters 'unable' to maintain social distancing? Likewise the coach - Klopp, is it? According to the good old Daily Telegraph he and his colleagues were doing plenty of hugging.
 Leicester - Bromptonaut
>> >> Probably not "likely to disregard" more like "less able to adhere to" social distancing.
>>
>>
>> I don't get the "less able to", bit.

My son was amongst those at Anfield and by the bombed out church late Thursday/early Friday. However hard they tried proper social distancing wasn't happening. As he's clinically vulnerable (asthma) and has asked for and got an exception from the need to be on the rota to be in the office I've told him he's a Muppet.

I suspect less able to refers to Leicester's considerable Asian populace who, because of a culture of extended families living cheek by jowl, cannot consistently maintain distancing.
 Leicester - Zero

>> I suspect less able to refers to Leicester's considerable Asian populace who, because of a
>> culture of extended families living cheek by jowl, cannot consistently maintain distancing.

Yes, I was referring to this.
 Leicester - Duncan
>> I suspect less able to refers to Leicester's considerable Asian populace who, because of a
>> culture of extended families living cheek by jowl, cannot consistently maintain distancing.

That wasn't my reference, implied or otherwise.

I will cheerfully accept any accusations of snobbery, although I have absolutely nothing to be snobby about.

Any remarks that I made were probably with - as an example - those idiots celebrating in Liverpool in mind.

But I take considerable umbrage at the thought of being accused of being a racist.
 Leicester - Zero
>> >> Probably not "likely to disregard" more like "less able to adhere to" social distancing.
>>
>>
>> I don't get the "less able to", bit.

large family groups, smaller accommodation, language difficulties, lack of support, social pressures, etc etc etc
 Leicester - No FM2R
>>...leaving the casual racism to one side....

Racism? WTF was there anything racist in his comment?

Ridiculous.
 Leicester - Bromptonaut
>> Racism? WTF was there anything racist in his comment?

As explored below there are areas of Leicester which comprise houses close together and densely populated by people who have a culture where extended families mix closely.

Against that background it's pretty easy to blame the 'ethnics' for spreading the disease.
 Leicester - No FM2R
>> >> Racism? WTF was there anything racist in his comment?
>>
>> As explored below there are areas of Leicester which comprise houses close together and
>> densely populated by people who have a culture where extended families mix closely.
>>
>> **Against that background it's pretty easy to blame the 'ethnics' for spreading the disease. **

Given that he didn't say anything like that but you went straight there,*again*!, then I suspect you're looking in the wrong place for racism. Try the mirror.


 Leicester - Bromptonaut
>> Given that he didn't say anything like that but you went straight there,*again*!, then I
>> suspect you're looking in the wrong place for racism. Try the mirror.

Somebody else, TNE I think, mentioned the possibility that Duncan's view exhibited casual racism.

My post was intended to say that I could see where he was coming from.

Duncan's subsequent posts change the perspective.
 Leicester - tyrednemotional
Given that he posted a question "Is it possible that residents of a particular area are more likely to disregard advice or regulations regarding lockdown, social distancing, and the like?, phrased as if it were rhetorical, directly after a discussion of a rising number of cases in Leicester, widely documented as being concentrated on ethnically populated areas of the city, it is/was IMO, quite a valid conclusion to reach.

It might have been less controversial to ask whether it was as a result of the well-documented imbalance of cases in the ethnic minority population.

Only Duncan knows the truth.

I disagree with you on a lot of things, Mark, sometimes I'm wrong, and the rest of the time, well, no doubt I'm wrong there as well. ;-)

BTW, your constant baiting of Bromp (you went straight there,*again*!) is, and always has been, tedious, at least to me. (But I'm probably wrong there as well).
 Leicester - No FM2R
>> it is/was IMO, quite a valid conclusion to reach.

I took it to mean people of Leicester as opposed to people of elsewhere. It didn't even occur to me to think race. I wonder about those for whom it is their first thought.

As for the rest, are you looking for sympathy? Because I don't fancy your chances. You'll probably do better just to ignore me. I'll cope.
 Leicester - Bromptonaut
>> I took it to mean people of Leicester as opposed to people of elsewhere. It
>> didn't even occur to me to think race. I wonder about those for whom it
>> is their first thought.

Not necessarily a first thought but surely once the people of Leicester are, as it were, in the frame the next question what are the characteristics of that place and its populace?

Once you're at that level of analysis it's difficult at least to me not to think of things like age, ethnicity, types of employment etc. Taking Leicester it's well known that a large proportion of that city's population are first generation immigrants or the descendants of first generation immigrants. Furthermore those immigrants came mainly from the Indian subcontinent.

A quick stroll round the City Centre or for that matter Sainsburys at Fosse Park would tell you it's a long way from being an all white town.

Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Wed 1 Jul 20 at 10:13
 Leicester - Duncan
>> Given that he posted a question "Is it possible that residents of a particular area
>> are more likely to disregard advice or regulations regarding lockdown, social distancing, and the like?
,
>> phrased as if it were rhetorical, directly after a discussion of a rising number of
>> cases in Leicester, widely documented as being concentrated on ethnically populated areas of the city,
>> it is/was IMO, quite a valid conclusion to reach.
>>
>> It might have been less controversial to ask whether it was as a result of
>> the well-documented imbalance of cases in the ethnic minority population.
>>
>> Only Duncan knows the truth.

The truth is that what Duncan was thinking was class, not race.

I was thinking of working class areas that were failing to maintain social distancing and then, lo and behold! Liverpool football supporters confirm my snobbish views.
 Leicester - tyrednemotional
>>
>> The truth is that what Duncan was thinking was class, not race.
>>
>> I was thinking of working class areas that were failing to maintain social distancing and
>> then, lo and behold! Liverpool football supporters confirm my snobbish views.
>>

In which case, Duncan, I apologise unreservedly for calling you out on it.

It's unfortunate you pinned the original comment directly to the current circumstances in Leicester, however, rather than the behaviour in Liverpool. (Though anyone who thinks that supporters of Premiership football are necessarily "working class", or even originate anywhere near the area of the team they profess to support has somewhat of a flawed starting point).

Anyway, I no longer think of you as a "casual racist", simply (by your own confession) a "less-than casual snob".

;-)
 Leicester - Zero
>> Looks a serious concern. Clearly not predicted, or acted on early enough. Hancock says 10%
>> of new (detected) cases are in Leicester. Sources say it was evident over a week
>> ago.
>>
>> The story doesn't change. Focus on party, propaganda, politics. A fish rots from the head.
>> Anybody know who the head is? Johnson looks head-less.

You cant knee jerk action, action that affects peoples lives and livelihoods a lot, on a days or two days results or trends, the data is very spiky, Warning of action was give two days ago.


I do tho admire your dogged determination to continue to blame it on a right wing political agenda, admire less your "tired cliches" some fresh dogma is needed there I think.

5/10
 Leicester - zippy
Someone mentioned "whack-a-mole" in response to the Govt's action on locking down hot spots, only with a delayed reaction - it needs to be a lot quicker - I think 11 days delay from the spike was mooted.

Re Leicester in particular, several companies that I work with there have large percentages of Asian employees.

English is not the first language, probably isn't even the second language spoken.

The message social distancing rules needs to get out and it's not only the row upon row of terraced housing that's a problem, it's also continued meeting for prayer as well and this goes on in both Muslim groups, orthodox Jewish groups and no doubt some Christian sects also.

I've had client's confirm it, phone up at the wrong time and it's sorry, the men have gone to the canteen or where-ever for prayers! Knowing the business premises / staff numbers its certainly not going to be social distanced!

Also some of the factories - whilst non-essential have still been operating, including machine shops and fabric makers.

Turnover has stayed moderately high (there have been some falls) but staff costs have fallen off a cliff - so either the turnover if fake or the wage bill is fake or furloughed staff are being used to work! I suspect a few Suspicious Activity Reports will be completed over the next few weeks.
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 30 Jun 20 at 14:47
 Leicester - Bromptonaut
newsthump.com/2020/06/30/gary-linekers-small-band-of-mercenaries-sneak-walkers-crisps-out-of-leicester/
 Leicester - PeterS
Factories have always been allowed to operate, with appropriate preventative measures in place; the only businesses that had to close were shops not selling food/drink, any health or beauty related services and entertainment venues. I’m sure HMRC will have a field day unravelling all of the various initiatives. But when speed is of the essence generally something has to give...

The problem with respect to Leicester is that the legislation as drafted in the U.K. doesn’t allow for selective lockdown. They can ask non essential shops and restaurants not to open, but not force them, until further legislation is passed. So they’d better hurry up!

As I understand it the spike was seen coming, and local enforcement stepped up, though as it turns out, for reasons stated above perhaps, without great effect.. Should this have been predicted? Possibly...but given how much more compliant the public was to the government’s initial advice to stay indoors when this all kicked off maybe not. I’m sure Keith would say it should have been, though as with all his ‘insight’ and criticism it’s always with the benefit of hindsight. There’s never any contemporaneous evidence of his wisdom ;)
 Leicester - sooty123
I see Bradford, Rochdale and Doncaster also have significantly higher positive cases than the rest of the UK. The government should restrict movement in these areas as well. I wonder why they haven't?
 Leicester - Manatee

>> I do tho admire your dogged determination to continue to blame it on a right
>> wing political agenda, admire less your "tired cliches" some fresh dogma is needed there I
>> think.
>>
>> 5/10

I could have sworn I replied to this (in good humour, so I doubt if it was struck out) so I must have failed to press the button.

No dogma necessary. Of course you can take urgent action if your NHS people are telling you cases are going up sharply, starting with reinforcement of whatever messages are current. The one thing that has surely been learned is that delay costs lives. 2 weeks of a higher death rate are already in the buffer.

It's possible that the fish head didn't know what was going on. Also a sign of a rotten fish.

Defence of these failures is untenable, whether or not I am a dog. I give credit where it's due, whatever party has earned it.
 Leicester - tyrednemotional
>> Looks a serious concern. Clearly not predicted, or acted on early enough. Hancock says 10%
>> of new (detected) cases are in Leicester. Sources say it was evident over a week
>> ago.
>>


This may go some way to explaining any delay:

www.ft.com/content/301c847c-a317-4950-a75b-8e66933d423a
 Leicester - PeterS
I can’t seem to find out whether any new legislation has been passed actually giving the police or anyone else the power to actually lock down Leicester? Which is as worrying, if not more so, than CV19 itself. After all, at least we can take individual responsibility and actions to protect ourselves from CV19! All I can find is:

www.gov.uk/government/speeches/local-action-to-tackle-coronavirus
www.gov.uk/government/news/leicestershire-coronavirus-lockdown-areas-and-changes

Which says that non essential shops have been "asked to close", they "recommend" people to stay at home and "advise against" travel.

Yet the police are talking about roads bocks to prevent movement in or out. This is when we need proper opposition to hold the government to account, though obviously there’s limited political mileage at the moment on being that side of tighter lockdown conditions...!
 Leicester - Manatee
After all, at least we can take
>> individual responsibility and actions to protect ourselves from CV19!

Up to a point. The mask wearing in particular is for the benefit of others. If people won't behave responsibly then compulsion might be necessary.

I take your point about legality of course.

I think the mask potential is not being fully exploited. Properly used they could possibly be a big factor in being able to open up the economy more safely.

 Leicester - Zero
>> Yet the police are talking about roads bocks to prevent movement in or out. This
>> is when we need proper opposition to hold the government to account,

ye gods and therein lies the issue. On the one hand we have a whole raft of people saying GOV should have acted sooner, on the other another raft saying GOV dont have the right or power, power to the people etc etc.

There is emergency legislation in place giving police the power to enforce and fine lockdowns, nothing to say or prevent that being used locally.


It is in a way good this has happened. CV hotspots are going to be a way of life going forward, and there needs to be a way of local remediation without destroying the economy of the rest of the country. This can be a good trial of what to do.
Last edited by: Zero on Wed 1 Jul 20 at 18:32
 Leicester - Duncan
Meanwhile...

The stuff that really matters in Leicester

www.bbc.co.uk/sport/rugby-union/53256761
 Leicester - Bromptonaut
Some analysis here of why Leicester has gone backwards:

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/01/leicester-outbreak-driven-by-infection-rise-in-under-19s-says-phe-report
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
If there is no vaccine or game changing treatment and if the virus does not mutate, then consider the following;

- In the UK there have been 311,965 cases so far.

- At the peak, that was 5,000 new cases per day. And let us remember that at this peak the NHS was worried. It didn't break, but it was worried so it would take serious NHS expansion to cope with more than that..

- It's an average of 2,066 per day over the 151 days since the first case.

- It is estimated that infection may reach 70% before it runs out of steam

For 70% of the population to be infected at the peak rate it will take 26 years.

To do the same at the average rate will take 62 years.

Naturally of course the virus infection would escalate dramatically. But if it was allowed to do that, the NHS will break.

We often hear that there are many more unconfirmed cases. Then perhaps, actual total infections to date could be 10x the total currently confirmed.

Then at possible average rate of 20,000 per day, it will still take six years.

Even at 10x the peak rate, so 50,000 cases per day, that's till three years.

This isn't going away by Christmas.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Zero
Pratically, we dont want it gone by xmas. If it disappears quickly we wont be ready for any mutation or second/third wave.

we need it hovering around in the back ground, higher than noise level, building resistance, practical mitigation, personal hygiene/precautions and preparedness.

 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
Oh it's going to do more than hover around in the background, this is going to be a significant feature for some time to come.

I'd say roughly until the crappy media get bored and run out of sensationalist headlines and the lemmings lose interest. It'll still be there, of course, but it won't be fashionable or trendy for the media.

I still subscribe to the earlier approach of let it burn through the environment save only for holding it within the ever increasing capacity of the NHS.

Until we have an effective vaccine or a death-preventing treatment, then we can only strive for herd immunity and we'll get that by letting it fly.

I think stupid people should be permitted to have their secret parties, gatherings and celebrations. They should not be stopped from going to beaches or standing outside football stadiums.

We might as well increase the average IQ of the country while we're here enduring the slow and drawn out apocalypse.

Every cloud.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 30 Jun 20 at 19:27
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Netsur
It's very tempting to do that especially when most of us are going about our business whilst trying to be careful.

As mentioned by zippy various ethnic groups are not socially distancing. Various ultra-orthodox synagogues are open for 'private prayer - yeah well there's no such thing in Judaism. They are full on services which will lead to more virus spreading and death. On Saturday my wife and I were walking down our local village high street and an Asian ladies clothing shop was open and having a sale. There must have been 50 ladies lined up outside and 20 inside. They were all standing right next to each other, chatting away as if they had never heard of coronavirus. More opportunity for virus spreading and death.

Anyone who is not a Liverpool FC supporter will have been delighted to see the scenes at the pier head. It confirms everything we thought about them and will lead to more virus spreading and death.

People just don't get it. The virus is out there and so many people have died, not only with the virus or of the virus but because of the virus. Those who couldn't receive their cancer treatment and such like. I don't want to be a statistic in the Covid-19 history, I want to read it and die of something I can't avoid rather than something I can.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - tyrednemotional
>>
>> Anyone who is not a Liverpool FC supporter will have been delighted to see the
>> scenes at the pier head. It confirms everything we thought about them and will lead
>> to more virus spreading and death.
>>

I don't have a great like of the Supporters of Liverpool FC (and I've posted to that effect on here before, under the discussions of the Hillsborough disaster) but I find that comment somewhat biased (typical of a City supporter ;-) ).

Do you really think that, under similar circumstances, the fans of other major Premiership teams (City, United, Spurs, Arsenal, etc.) winning the title wouldn't have found an equivalent location to congregate at, with much the same outcome?

I wouldn't condone it, but I would, unfortunately, expect it of any of them.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 1 Jul 20 at 12:50
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Zero
>> Do you really think that, under similar circumstances, the fans of other major Premiership teams
>> (City, United, Spurs, Arsenal, etc.) winning the title wouldn't have found an equivalent location to
>> congregate at, with much the same outcome?
>>
>> I wouldn't condone it, but I would, unfortunately, expect it of any of them.

I wouldn't expect it of west ham fans. It's such an unlikely scenario they wouldn't know how.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 1 Jul 20 at 12:49
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - tyrednemotional
..I did say major Premiership teams...

Though I wouldn't be surprised if there's a celebration gathering if they avoid relegation (or a wake if they don't).
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Terry
Around 60,000 have died with CV-19 so far. This is approx 1 in a 1000 of the population. Most people know nobody who has died as a consequence, they probably don't even know someone who knows someone who has died.

For most below the age of ~40 it is a massive inconvenience and financial burden for no real benefit. It is a disease of the elderly and vulnerable.

So the argument for a two stream strategy is quite compelling:

- the young and healthy need to get infected and immune ASAP - let it rip
- we need to support older and vulnerable people to enable them to ride out the storm

Encourage parties, packed bars and restaurants, theatres, sport, etc etc.

If half the population are immune within the space of a few months (that's all it would take), herd immunity begins to kick in for the benefit of all.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - smokie
Didn't I read yesterday that the trend in the US states which are experiencing massive rises in cases were saying that there was a much larger proportion of younger people testing positive?

But then I suppose it's also true that if you are testing more then you are going to find more, and may might have only relatively minor symptoms so may previously have flown under the radar.
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 1 Jul 20 at 13:17
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - henry k
>> Didn't I read yesterday that the trend in the US states which are experiencing massive rises in cases
>>were saying that there was a much larger proportion of younger people testing positive?
>>
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-53228134
Florida
Republican Governor Ron DeSantis said a backlog "test dump" coupled with transmission in the 18 to 35 age range is behind the concerning counts. He said that 20% of Floridians aged 25 to 34 are testing positive, and called on younger residents to be more careful, citing graduation parties that ignored social distancing rules.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Terry
This is all part of the Trump strategy to get re-elected.

He knows that if the virus problem still persists in November with rising unemployment he will be held accountable and may lose the presidency.

But if by November it is mostly just history and the good ol' US of A is back to working normally, he may get another term. His voters are generally of limited intellect and have short memories. Just as well as he presided so incompetently over the crisis.

This is why he has bought up world supplies of Remdesivir - he is demonstrating he is a "man whose actions speak louder than words". I don't think he really cares whether the drug works or not, he's bought it!
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
>>This is why he has bought up world supplies of Remdesivir - he is demonstrating he is a "man
>> whose actions speak louder than words". I don't think he really cares whether the drug works
>>or not, he's bought it!

Absolutely.

"President Trump has struck an amazing deal to ensure Americans have access to the first authorised therapeutic for Covid-19," Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said in a statement."
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Zero
He fails to mention of course that a: its not a cure and only at best takes off a few days in recovery time, b: they have bough a pretty small (by global batch terms) initial supply (its a drug that had a small user base, so supply needs to be ramped up) at a pretty outrageous price, and c: the company has given a "generic drug" license to other manufacturers who will soon be ramping up as well.

But yes, he can truly claim America First but then they need it as its "America deepest in the sheet because of me"
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - James Loveless
"I don't think he really cares whether the drug works or not..."

Given Trump's own limited intellect, he probably doesn't even understand what the drug does and doesn't do. As I understand it, its efficacy is quite restricted, in that it may shorten the recovery time of some patients. It's not a cure or preventive medication.

He will no doubt present it, as Terry says, as a great triumph for himself and the American people.

It's better than bleach, I suppose.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
>>He will no doubt present it, as Terry says, as a great triumph for himself and the American people.

And given the mentality of a Trump supporter, they'll love it.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
There's a graphic on the BBC today, which I can't reproduce here obviously, but it gives the following figures; [and quotes sources]

Deaths with positive test result = 43,906
Death certificate mentions COVID-19 = 53,858
Deaths over and above the usual number at this time of year = 65,132
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - devonite
It seems China is really desperate to decrease it's population! - They've now mysteriously got a "new" version of Swine Flu with the seemingly req pandemic requirement!! and our dear Gov has pledged to re-home 3 million of their Hong Kong residents for them! Well what are we going to do with them? considering our own unemployed is about to rocket. One good deed to many me thinks, we can't cope with our own needs!
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Zero

>> Gov has pledged to re-home 3 million of their Hong Kong residents for them! Well
>> what are we going to do with them? considering our own unemployed is about to
>> rocket. One good deed to many me thinks, we can't cope with our own needs!

I did suggest some time back that we tow Northern Ireland over there, swap it and tow Hong Kong back in its place.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Duncan

>> I did suggest some time back that we tow Northern Ireland over there, swap it
>> and tow Hong Kong back in its place.
>>

Could they take Scotland at the same time - two for the price of one?
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - God
>>Could they take Scotland at the same time - two for the price of one?

+1
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - tyrednemotional
...and Cornwall....
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Ambo
>>Around 60,000 have died with CV-19 so far.

Where did you get this figure, Terry? Today's Telegraph has 43906.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Bromptonaut
>> >>Around 60,000 have died with CV-19 so far.
>>
>> Where did you get this figure, Terry? Today's Telegraph has 43906.

There are at least three different figures:

Deaths where Covid was diagnosed

Deaths where it's listed on the certificate.

Excess deaths in 2020 compared to average for same period over several years.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Zero
>> Excess deaths in 2020 compared to average for same period over several years.

And somewhere in there, is the real number of deaths directly caused by covid.
Last edited by: VxFan on Thu 2 Jul 20 at 12:29
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - God
...and London....
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
There are increasing discussions concerning "immunity passports".

Essentially the idea being that if you have had COVID-19 and are now presumed immune to it, then you will be able to get a passport allowing you more freedom to work, travel and socialise.

Essentially that means that it is significantly, and perhaps financially, to your advantage to have such a pass, and potentially significantly disadvantageous not to have one.

Now tell all the people not at risk of dying from the virus that they should avoid catching it!

This encourages the opposite behaviour and will result in younger less vulnerable people deliberately exposing themselves to the virus.

I do hope someone with a grain of intelligence works this out and s***cans the entire idea. But I'm not betting on it.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Terry
I don't think the young need a passport system. They seem to have worked out for themselves that if they get infected:

- it is likely to be a minor illness, probability of major problems is very low
- once they have had it they will anyway feel entirely free to do as they want

As UK is generally high a population density country and car ownership common, the response to any local lockdown will simply mean a drive to the next town.

Older people for whom CV-19 can be very serious are already far more circumspect in their behaviours to avoid (as far as possible) risk of infection.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Manatee
Our local pub is expected to open next week. We value it so I might donate something one way or another but I won't be returning to the pub quiz for a while. Of the regulars I know in my age group, most say the same. It's going to be hard for them.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - sooty123
Our nearest pub is doing an online booking system. You can book a table in 60 minutes blocks and you have to put down a non refundable deposit, this is knocked off your bill when you leave.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Crankcase
If you want to do a pub quiz, have a look at the North Yorkshire Moors Railway website. There's an online quiz each Friday night. £3.50 to enter, top three get some money, profits go to the railway. Last week's winner got about £22.

We've done it a couple of weeks now. About 60 people seem to enter. It's quite hard as you get scored according to your speed as well as accuracy, all pretty slickly done. Best we've come so far is 20th, because who the heck knows anything about sport or popular culture?

www.nymr.co.uk/friday-night-quiz
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - smokie
The local Lions set up a Thursday night quiz here at the start of lockdown and the last one (the 15th) was last night.

They started it as a fun community event and they just do the questions then you self mark your answers. Mostly the same teams each week, and some from as far as Wisconsin and Ontario!!

I wouldn't accuse anyone of cheating but e.g. there were two rounds last night where teams claimed full marks yet there were some really quite obscure (to me) questions. As it's only for fun it doesn't really matter though.

They have a donations page and have made over £4000 from it, all of which has gone to the local community hub which provides "food parcels, toiletries and other essentials to anyone in the borough who is vulnerable, isolated or elderly, and to families in need."

So all in all it's been a really good thing - we've looked forward to each week it even though we seem to be relatively thick!! :-)
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
The number of cases in the UK seems to have suddenly dropped by 50-odd thousand. Anybody know what happened?
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - PeterS
>> The number of cases in the UK seems to have suddenly dropped by 50-odd thousand.
>> Anybody know what happened?
>>

A civil service spreadsheet error I think. They’ve been double counting...and that’s when they don’t rush... ;)

twitter.com/francescolari/status/1278939364240822274?s=21
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
Thanks.

The first error I've seen where correction actually made the situation better!
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Lygonos
>>The first error I've seen where correction actually made the situation better!

Heh heh.

Of course the reality is the UK has massively under-counted the number of cases since during the bulk of the first peak we only tested symptomatic healthcare professionals and those admitted to hospital.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
Presumably the only figure we will ever know for sure through actual counting is "excess deaths"?

Anything else can only be estimated or extrapolated.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Lygonos
>>Presumably the only figure we will ever know for sure through actual counting is "excess deaths"?

As an approximation of the total, yes.

We have numbers for deaths directly/indirectly from proven Covid-19 but they miss a big chunk.

"Excess deaths" in UK nursing homes is 29,000 for 2.3.20-12.6.20

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53280011

The graph near the bottom shows how little testing was going on until April with a big surge in deaths and only a little red area for proven Covid.

As has been mentioned previously, many nursing home deaths would have happened anyway in the next 1-5 years, but Covid is a P*** awful way to die.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
>>As has been mentioned previously, many nursing home deaths would have happened anyway in the next 1-5 years, but Covid is a P*** awful way to die.

And frankly come the day I've only got 1-5 years of life left and even if I'm in a nursing home, I still wouldn't want to lose it.

The country, the Government or the statisticians may regard it as less significant, but I only get to die once and so it'll be b***** important to me.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Zero

>> And frankly come the day I've only got 1-5 years of life left and even
>> if I'm in a nursing home, I still wouldn't want to lose it.

Thats a question you can only answer, given your particular circumstances, at the time.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
From the BBC a couple of days ago...

Deaths with positive test result = 43,906
Death certificate mentions COVID-19 = 53,858
Deaths over and above the usual number at this time of year = 65,132
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Lygonos
Just to elaborate on "awful way to die", we (GPs in Scotland) were asked to pre-emptively write prescription cards for morphine, sedatives, and secretion-drying meds for every single carehome resident.

Pain, terror, and the grotesque term "air hunger" could develop within hours of an elderly resident appearing symptom-free.

Most severely ill Covid patients are not delirious - they know exactly what is happening to them.

Just in case anyone is feeling a bit complacent....
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Rudedog
Close colleague was present when three patients died within forty-five minutes, because of the numbers of ill patients being treated she was the ONLY person at their bedside as they passed away... the only slight blessing was that they were all anaesthetised.

Now we're re-starting our elective work.. very long process and for the near future it will cause a major change to every Trust doing any kind of surgery, Govt guidelines are changing quite regularly, they've just dropped the need for patients to self-isolate post-op for 14 days, link that with the current 14 day self-isolation pre-op (including any one you are living with) and somebody who has just got back to work would have been asked to take a month out probably without pay to have an op.

Add to that your local hospital will now have to have a completely isolated area where 'protected' patients come and go with no contact with anybody else, staff working in this area are isolated with no movement between here and the rest of the hospital, if you leave the protected area you can't go back in.... utter nightmare to run in a busy Trust.... but these are rules...
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - God
>>Close colleague was present when three patients died within forty-five minutes

I was thinking about carers/nurses earlier when I read the docs post - I could possibly do that work, if I had half a bottle of scotch after every shift.

My ole dad used to go around picking up bits of bodies in London during WW2 when he worked for the ambulance service.

Turned his mind in the end, he was classed A2 and shipped out to Egypt for the rest of the war.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Lygonos
>>Turned his mind in the end

My grandad was in the force that liberated Belsen - never regained his sense of smell after, though he could still taste his Guiness fine.

Much of his time was spent moving bodies around on a stretcher with his mate - the bodies were so emaciated they could carry 4 at a time between them.

 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - God
Forum member Ted was a Manchester policeman for many years, he had some gruesome stories to tell :(

I suppose one gets hardened to that sort of work eventually, either that or you're in the wrong job.

I can't in all honesty say how I would fare in such situations - hopefully I'll never find out now.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Fullchat
Wonder what happened to Ted?
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - bathtub tom
>> Wonder what happened to Ted?

He's still around, with his LE, Jowett and caravan.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Fullchat
Thats good news. :)
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - God
Drop him a line FC, I'm sure he'll be pleased to hear from you:

[Removed his email address and sent to FC. smokie] j
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 4 Jul 20 at 16:28
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Fullchat
All received. Will do. Talk some shop :)
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - God
>>Pain, terror, and the grotesque term "air hunger" could develop within hours of an elderly resident appearing symptom-free.

>>Most severely ill Covid patients are not delirious - they know exactly what is happening to them.

Reasons to be cheerful. Part 2
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Kevin
Received a call from NHS Blood and Transplant this morning asking if I would donate plasma for their Covid-19 antibody research. Apparently I fit three of the four attributes they have found to have the most antibodies - male, over 35yo and treated in hospital. The fourth is being of Asian descent.
Had to tell them that I was definitely willing but that I was still on prescription meds so probably not suitable.
They asked me to give them a call if they are still looking for volunteers and I'm off the meds.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - zippy
Miss Z reported that after a sharp uptick in cases, yesterday the south coast hospital has reinstated green and red sections and staff have been once more split in to their previous story based groups again.


 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Lygonos
While in Central Scotland I saw one patient in a 6-hour assessment centre shift (from a population of 300,000, and me being the only doctor there) who almost definitely did not have Covid-19.

Has been like that for a month now.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - zippy
I don't suspect your area included about 500,000 visitors from the midlands coming down for a sunshine break a couple of weeks ago!
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - henry k
>> Miss Z reported that after a sharp uptick in cases, yesterday the south coast hospital
>> has reinstated green and red sections......
>>
After the mad weekend I decided that us keeping on our general isolation will continue for at least a few weeks. My shopping neighbour is off on holiday for a couple of weeks and my son will take over the weekly shopping role.
I am in no hurry to join the mob so maybe I will start exploring a self administered haircut :-(
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Duncan
>> After the mad weekend I decided that us keeping on our general isolation will continue
>> for at least a few weeks. My shopping neighbour is off on holiday for a
>> couple of weeks and my son will take over the weekly shopping role.

My wife has been classed as vulnerable since this all started and we have using online deliveries. Ocado (Waitrose) to start, then Sainsburys and more recently Tesco. It all works quite well, I miss the cheapness of Lidl!
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - bathtub tom
>>maybe I will start exploring a self administered haircut :-(

SWMBO and I did mine this afternoon - not a pretty sight. Glad we did it outside, I don't know if the vacuum cleaner could've coped.
Do you think the 'roughly hacked' look could make a comeback?
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
>> keeping on our general isolation will continue for at least a few weeks

You are having a laugh.

Since the 10th of March 300k people in the UK have officially had COVID-19. 120 days ish - so about 2,500 people per day - and that was about what the health system could comfortably cope with long term..

There are 65m people in the UK and it is reckoned that whilst it is not binary, 70% infection is required for effective herd immunity - so 45m people need to catch it.

45 million people at 2,500 people per day is 18,000 days - or about 50 years.

There is no "second wave", it's just one very long one. We cannot avoid the virus. It's not going away. There is no "beating" of COVID-19.

COVID-19 is now a way of life.

The Government cannot stop people being infected, it can only slow it down to a level that the NHS can cope with. And arguably it should *not* be slowed down more than that.

Perhaps there will be a vaccine at some point, though even then whether or not it will be permanent immunity is an open question.

Gradually the fatality rate will drop over time, as the most vulnerable die, from COVID-19 or something else, and gradually some level of immunity will build up.

But isolating for a few weeks? Good luck with that.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - henry k
>>But isolating for a few weeks? Good luck with that.
Thanks for your thoughts .
It is not a problem for me and my wife to stay at home and I will review the overall situation in September. By then respite sessions will possibly have been reintroduced which will allow me to explore the wonderful post Covid world if I wish.
We are now in week 18 so well sorted. We have still not used up my supply of panic items and other items that I stocked up with last year.
I understand that lots of sanitising hand gell is in the shops, the one item that I have not required up to now.
I have plenty to occupy me and I really am quite content to let the rest of folks get on with their lives.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
I have the same discussion with my parents who have a similar dilemma.

On the one hand they rarely go out anyway; my Father is not in the best of health and my Mother has Alzheimers, but on the other hand the very few times they do go out are very important to them.

Though they are both of course very vulnerable.

Sad times.

I think, though, as I say to them there is a decision to be made. In their case not ever going out again doesn't seem like the right decision, but who can say, it's theirs to make.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Manatee
>>not ever going out again doesn't seem like the right decision,

That's where our minds are, for similar reasons starting with the fact that it could be around for years without a cure or vaccine.

I don't think it is inevitable that we will get it if we resume reasonably normal activities, in the same way that I haven't had proper flu for over 50 years.

Clearly overwhelming the NHS would be a bad idea but that should become easier to manage for all sorts of reasons including the rather gruesome fact that the reservoir of those most susceptible to a serious dose diminishes, even though there is a continuous inflow. Targeted mask wearing e.g on public transport, a new general level and culture of hygiene measures, and other 'organisational' changes could go a long way to mitigating the rate of infection without an actual lockdown and isolation regime.

We had a 'normal' visit to the grandchildren (3 & 5 year old girls) and their parents yesterday. Clearly that put us at some risk but it's one we decided to take, by agreement with the parents.

It's fatuous to say "I could be run over by a bus tomorrow" but equally people don't always consider the overall context of the risks they live with and never stop to think about. At around 70, everybody has a material risk of something fatal occurring. It seems likely that the COVID-19 case fatality risk for someone of my and my wife's age is less than 5% (it's around 5% from confirmed cases so could be much less with undiagnosed or silent infections). 5% isn't far off the risk of dying every year from all causes at our age. So at worst, and assuming we catch it, we double our death risk in that year from a normal risk that we never give a thought to.

So why not sensible precautions, and subject to those and what is permitted, everyone does most of what they want? Mitigate with supermarket deliveries or click and collect. Enforce mask-wearing on public transport to limit to keep the rate of infection at a manageable level. Ban vertical drinking at the bar in pubs, which mixes people up - those at tables are much more 'bubbled'. I have far too much to do just now but I'm tempted to write a COVID-19 manifesto along these lines and see what friends and family think.
Last edited by: Manatee on Sun 12 Jul 20 at 13:06
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
>>respite sessions

I do apologise for forgetting that concern.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Duncan
>> COVID-19 is now a way of life.
>>
>> The Government cannot stop people being infected, it can only slow it down to a
>> level that the NHS can cope with. And arguably it should *not* be slowed down
>> more than that.
>>
>> Perhaps there will be a vaccine at some point, though even then whether or not
>> it will be permanent immunity is an open question.
>>
>> Gradually the fatality rate will drop over time, as the most vulnerable die, from COVID-19
>> or something else, and gradually some level of immunity will build up.

This is a conclusion that I am gradually coming to.

I am a trustee of our village hall. We are now scheduled to re-open - well, accept bookings - from August 3rd. I have just been sent a copy of the information "sheet" of guidance for procedures to be followed when re-opening village halls and other similar premises. The "sheet" is 29 pages long with, I think, 23 linked attachments.

I am a member of several organisations, I cannot see them - and me - getting back to any where near what used to pass for normality, at least, until an effective vaccine has been developed and administered.

Therefore, if I cannot go to, say, Probus for a year or more, then why renew subscriptions and remain a member?
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - God
>> I cannot go to, say, Probus for a year or more

Not far from me: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probus,_Cornwall

;-)
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
>>Therefore, if I cannot go to, say, Probus for a year or more, then why renew subscriptions and remain a member?

I am very happy with my life, it is how I wish it to be. Or at least it was until 4 months ago.

I do not wish to stop leading my life the way I lead it.

I am a chronic asthmatic and I must be aware of that. My parents are extremely vulnerable and I must be aware of that also.

But I will be damned if I will go and live in a bubble. If it is available, I will do it. I will lead as much of my normal life as I can. If it kills me, then so be it. Though, of course, I don't think it will.

I will go to the pub. I will attend those of my clubs which open. I will continue as well as I am able. I will not hide away.

I am not saying anybody else should have my attitude, everybody needs to make decision that they are comfortable with. But FFS, life will and must go on.

I'm old enough that a lost year is a real loss. And my children are young enough that a lost year is a real loss.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Zero
Apart from enforced cessation of my diary of events, shortages and agro at the supermarket, my lifestyle and attitude to life has changed not a jot.

But then I am very fortunate.

I have space at home, a nice garden, walks and exercise on hand. We are both retired and have good incomes, We have, more or less, ignored the restrictions and carried on with life. Our general catchment area has not been badly hit hence my local NHS trust has coped, (my mental health may well have gone to pot had my treatment been put on hold). I have no vulnerable people to worry about, so my risk assessments are easy.

Even the wife has managed to look half decent hair wise*

* and therein lies a life shock. A local radio prog was having a phone in from people saying what they missed most in lockdown, and for many women it was the hairdresser apparently. Costs were mentioned, and I exclaimed to Mrs Zee it seemed to be expensive.

She then told me her last visit to a hairdresser cost £135. Yes One Hundred and thirty five erfing quid!

WTF!!!!!

 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - zippy
>> Costs were mentioned, and I exclaimed to Mrs Zee it seemed
>> to be expensive.
>>
>> She then told me her last visit to a hairdresser cost £135. Yes One Hundred
>> and thirty five erfing quid!
>>
>> WTF!!!!!
>>

I drove past my barbers the other day with a view to getting a much needed hair cut. No way, the queue was 15 - 20 people long. I'll give it a little while yet.

Mrs Z called her hair dresser before they reopened and left them a message. She missed their call back and between their call offering a place on the Saturday and Mrs Z calling them back, 2 weeks of bookings went - in 40 odd minutes.

I did half joke that I would buy her slot from her and the bidding got to £500 before she would think about selling the booking to me - and she wasn't joking!!!
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Zero

>> Therefore, if I cannot go to, say, Probus for a year or more, then why
>> renew subscriptions and remain a member?

Every cloud and all that.

Pompous Retired Old BU gerS
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - martin aston
Aside from gym and Sky Sports we have not cancelled any subs during lockdown.

Worthy causes such a social clubs, RHS and Woodland Trust need and receive our continued support. We have also ordered regularly from our local family-run Italian restaurant who switched to take-away.

The one that wrankles a bit is Denplan which costs us over £60 a month. But how can we not support a local dentist who knows the whole family by name and pre-lockdown gave me their personal home number on a Friday in case a tricky filling they had just done flared up before my holiday departure on the Monday.

Small businesses and organisations need our cash.
Last edited by: martin aston on Sun 12 Jul 20 at 10:20
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - No FM2R
According to Google it's "PROfessional BUSiness" - I've never heard of it before.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - sooty123
I've vaguely heard of it, seemed to be a retired businessman type of club.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - John Boy
>> I've vaguely heard of it, seemed to be a retired businessman type of club.
>>
I thought that's what this forum was.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - sooty123
>> >> I've vaguely heard of it, seemed to be a retired businessman type of club.
>>
>> >>
>> I thought that's what this forum was.
>>

Nope, there's a few of us still working ;)
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - smokie
Haha... I have a feeling it's where retired Rotarians go, with others
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Fullchat
Socially distanced group ride out today.

Tan Hill - Buttertubs - Hawes at the extremities of the journey.

Very uncomfortable in Hawes. No chance of maintaining reasonable distancing a lot of the time. Best kept well clear of if distancing is of concern. I found a defendable space for the time we were there.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - legacylad
Are the meadow flowers out in Swaledale yet ? I’ll have a drive up there next week if so.

Very busy, as expected, today in Settle. Great weather for a ride out...market square taken over by bikers, spending their ££ on fish n chips, drinks and food at various cafes. Good for local business. The usual locals moaning about not being able to get ‘their’ parking space to shop in the Coop and elsewhere.
Apart from the occasional very loud exhaust noise travelling along Upper Ribblesdale I think it great that people want to visit a place where I live. That’s my rationale. Certain local inbreeds and retirees disagree.

I do my best to social distance....and support local business....5 visits to my local pubs since last Saturday. Mid/late afternoon, sometimes into the evening, drinking with friends. As soon as it gets busy we go home. Hand sanitise on entry, fresh glass each pint, no sharing of nuts & crisps, no spitting or coughing, no face masks or Perspex screens. Wash your hands after every pee.

Now checking to see if any cheap trips to warmer climes late July. The C Blanca in late September is a long way away !
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Fullchat
Sorry LL nothing caught my eye as such, too focused on the ride, which is what happens with a group. I think I prefer riding on my own then I can set the pace and enjoy the landscape. The verges though were well blessed with wild flowers.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - legacylad
It’s a beautiful part of the world. Discovered it aged 15 Youth Hostelling with a pal. Keld, Grinton Lodge etc
Coincidentally I was part of the team converting Keld YH to Keld Lodge, several years ago. January & February, staying 4 nights a week B & B in Keld. It was freezing cold. One of the contractors slid off the road one snowy evening en route to Tan Hill for evening food. Rolled it several times. I’ve helped my joiner pal working on a luxury holiday let at Angram, a tiny hamlet twixt Thwaite & Keld.
The Farmers Arms at Muker became my winter local for food & drink 3 evenings a week. Tan Hill on the 4th evening. If the road was passable.
A great contract with stupendous winter scenery, but it was freezing work stripping out the old YH and constructing new internal accommodation.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - God
This is a nice place to take the doggie for a stroll ...

www.walkhighlands.co.uk/lochness/glenaffric.shtml
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Fullchat
Looks stunning.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Runfer D'Hills
Reminds me of the story of when God was creating the Earth. As we know, he had to do it quite quickly, but he decided to make this one really special place and call it Scotland.

Beautiful scenery, mountains, rivers, forests and glens. Stunning coastline, affable people, plentiful game and fish.

A bit later St Peter joins the team, and one day he's talking to God about how things are going down on Earth. He can't help bringing up the subject of Scotland and says, "Y'know boss, that Scotland place really is something special, arguably it's too good, once the rest of them get to know about it, there's going to be trouble, they'll all want somewhere that fantastic"

So, God thinks about it for a while and decides that he'll just dial back the weather a bit in Scotland to make it just a little less attractive.

St Peter agrees, it's probably for the best, but is deeply concerned that it's still too nice by comparison to all the other places. He really feels strongly that it'll lead to civil unrest. He puts this to God who says...

"Ok look Pete, what you don't know about is the really dreadful neighbours I'm giving them..."

;-)

 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - Bobby
>>"Ok look Pete,

I was expecting this to end with reference to midges!!
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - legacylad
Walked through there in May 2003....I regularly participated in the annual TGOC, The UKs largest backpacking event where you plan your own route C2C (limits were set on start points, finish anywhere between Arbroath and Fraserburgh).
My event records show I enjoyed 2 dry days from the Cluanie Inn to another wild camp just outside Drumnadrochit before crossing L Ness and into the Monadhliath Mountains. I camped ( illegally) at the E end of L Affric in the evening, used the picnic tables and toilet facilities. Pure luxury after using a trenching tool and cooking in a tiny tent out of the rain.
Two days superb walking. The other 13 days it rained. I’d forgotten just how miserable it could be backpacking day after day in the rain. Scotland can be soooo depressing at times.
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - John Boy
Spotting Runfer on here prompts me to ask if this has been aired on the forum:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=2hLfDNvI0ag
 Coronavirus - Volume 21 - henry k
An alternative.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=n_7gkhSjSjY
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