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Ongoing debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 30 Nov 21 at 12:57
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58502589
Anyone switched from train to car for commuting? I wonder if there is a switch at all, perhaps train commuters are more likely to have a job they can wfh in?
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Almost certainly, "working in the city". may never return to pre covid levels.
As an aside, I have recently taken a couple of am peak hour road journeys on my "economic barometer" route. That is 7:00am. M25 anticlock J17 to 10. ( I was going the other way)
It was more or less as jammed up with SWOT as badly as I have ever seen it. Its proved to be a remarkably accurate indicator of economic activity over the last 20 years
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 10 Sep 21 at 10:53
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>> It was more or less as jammed up with SWOT
SWOT?
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 10 Sep 21 at 10:48
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>> Sheer Weight Of Traffic?
Yer, as opposed to an incident.
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>> It was more or less as jammed up with SWOT as badly as I have
>> ever seen it. Its proved to be a remarkably accurate indicator of economic activity over
>> the last 20 years
Yup. I'm now back to leaving the car at a P&R on the outskirts of Northampton and using the Brompton for the last mile and a half. Roads pretty much back to normal at usual congestion points like St James' Mill Road. Had to assertively hold my lane on Black Lion Hill due to volume of traffic.
On the other hand the accurate indicator of economic activity here over 30+ years has been the level of occupancy of Northampton station's car park. Not remotely full even at surface level, the steel decking section put up in the early noughties has been closed for months.
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"On the other hand the accurate indicator of economic activity here over 30+ years has been the level of occupancy of Northampton station's car park. Not remotely full even at surface level, the steel decking section put up in the early noughties has been closed for months".
A very clear indicator that transport modes have changed during the pandemic.
Schools are now back, holiday season over - perhaps there is a balance between those now WFH and those transferring from train/bus to car.
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>> On the other hand the accurate indicator of economic activity here over 30+ years has
>> been the level of occupancy of Northampton station's car park. Not remotely full even at
>> surface level, the steel decking section put up in the early noughties has been closed
>> for months.
Same here - prime commuting territory. Strangely however the pensioners special (the first train to london you can use your old persons rail card on) is heaving!
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>> On the other hand the accurate indicator of economic activity here over 30+ years has
>> been the level of occupancy of Northampton station's car park. Not remotely full even at
>> surface level, the steel decking section put up in the early noughties has been closed
>> for months.
>>
I regularly cycle through/alongside the car parks at Leatherhead for the station and Wates. They look 80% empty!
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>> Almost certainly, "working in the city". may never return to pre covid levels.
>>
>
Probably not no, I think the genie is out of the bottle with wfh. Few with the choice will go back to the same number of days in work.
I note in the report the tone, it's nearly pleading with people to back into work more and use the train more. I think they'll have a struggle with that one.
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Brexit and Covid will leave a lasting mark on work in the UK. Over time its going to change most of the economy of the uk, from less use of zero hours contracts, wage rates, less reliance on convoluted supply chains and more local manufacture and supply, decline of the city of london and the financial markets within.
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I don't really mix with many of working age now but the handful I'm aware who were office based now have some days at home and some in the office, and they think that is the likely pattern going forward.
I remember an easier working week with more leisure time being forecast back in the 80s when computers were on the rise and it was thought that they would reduce the need for people to work. Alongside the paperless office and that didn't really work out so well though maybe we're getting there now.
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I know a couple of people that don't have an office to go back to, one the bosses sold/ended the lease, the other has had the office repurposed.
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I've just received an envelope in the post asking if my household would participate. It's government funded and they've offered to pay (by voucher) £50 each for taking a throat and nose swab, then £25 for each subsequent. We could rake in a few hundred over the length of the survey. It's apparently been running since April last year.
We've been doing lateral flow tests whenever we've been out mixing (hospital visits, dental and eye test appointments etc.) for free and would have participated without a bribe. It must be costing the government a fortune.
Anyone else heard about it?
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Yeah, I was asked if I would take part before the roll-out and told them thanks but no-thanks after reading their Data and Privacy statements.
I don't know if it is still the same but you were giving Imperial College the go-ahead to share all your personally identifiable data with anyone they liked, for any reason they liked, for up to 20 years.
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>> Anyone else heard about it?
>
Yes someone in family does them I think for the ONS. It was 50 for each test each week per member of the household for months, then it dropped to 25 quid a time. They've been doing them for 12-18 months by now.
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Peter mentioned Covid tests recently but I can't find it.
Depending on circumstances one needs different tests, different timetable and perhaps different geography and these must be booked before one enters the UK.
gov.uk helpfully offers a list of providers in alphabetical order. And it's s***e.
Firstly the companies are called things like "!! Company" or "##>> Company" or anything else in their fight to be first.
Secondly every entry says something like "tests from £20". To get a £20 test you must be a one-legged, green, one-eyed, resident of outer Mongolia willing to pick your test up at 3:00am in John-o-Groats.
The tests are anywhere from £50ish up to a couple of hundred but you have to visit each site and go through half a dozen clicks to find that out.
I shan't take the risk, but it's all so very irritating that the idea of using any compatible reference number is attractive.
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BTW, tests for travellers in
Chile £19 and appt required
Spain £40+, no appt required
Austria £0 , walk-in
UK £50+ and registration / appointment required.
You should also check the test you require. If you are able to use an antigen test then do so. Much faster and usually cheaper.
Also check the languages that you can get the report in. The UK will only accept English, Spanish or French. Translations are not accepted. e.g. for travel I cannot use the Austrian free service, I have to pay £15 per test to get the results in English.
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This page on the BA website is a handy summary of where you can get a COVID test form, and the prices. But as mentioned above, it’s a mess. And the possibility in the next few weeks the need goes away for those that have been vaccinated?
www.britishairways.com/en-gb/information/incident/coronavirus/covid19-tests
In terms of the ONS survey, I also know a couple of people who’ve been doing them since the beginning of the pandemic.
It’s now nearly 2 weeks since I returned from France and I’ve had no follow up on my day 2 test. I’m now in Rhodes and, unless anything changes, will need to get a negative antigen test before retiring to the UK on Monday. The hotel is providing them for free, though I haven’t yet asked where I need to go…
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In the UK currently what is the general mask wearing approach? Actually I am not that sure of the rules either, though I can look those up, but how much and where/when are people wearing masks?
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>>how much
>> and where/when are people wearing masks?
Not a lot, but you won't feel out of place (at your age) if you wear one on public transport, in shops and other closed spaces.
;>)
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>> In the UK currently what is the general mask wearing approach? Actually I am not
>> that sure of the rules either, though I can look those up, but how much
>> and where/when are people wearing masks?
Depends which part of the UK.
In England masks are generally only advised. Wearing has declined over last 6 weeks. In local Sainsburys it's now well below 25% with some staff unmasked. One staff member in Greggs was unmasked at lunchtime too. Neighbour suggests there's some correlation between store's target market and wearing; it declined in Poundland long before it did in M&S Food!!
They are still required on London Transport but observance is hit/miss.
In Scotland (and I think Wales too) they're mandated in indoor spaces.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 16 Sep 21 at 17:40
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>> In England masks are generally only advised. Wearing has declined over last 6 weeks. In
>> local Sainsburys it's now well below 25% with some staff unmasked. One staff member in
>> Greggs was unmasked at lunchtime too. Neighbour suggests there's some correlation between store's target market
>> and wearing; it declined in Poundland long before it did in M&S Food!!
It's certainly declined, but the boss reports that it's still a majority pastime in Sainsburys, Tesco and M&S Food round here - more so in M&S, which could just be Tring vs. Hemel Hempstead and Aylesbury, or the M&S demographic (we are agnostic as to supermarket and will shop anywhere we can find what we want).
I make a lot of visits to Screwfix and Toolstation, where mask wearing is pretty much nil. None of tradesmen I am currently employing has worn a mask, even at the height of the pandemic, with one exception, the joiner who only stopped when he was double jabbed.
I had a pension trustee meeting today - it was agreed that the December meeting will be a face to face and we will go for a Christmas dinner. or at least a drink. The last time I went to London, in January last year, I brought back Covid.
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Thanks all.
Sounds like less in the UK than in Chile, Spain or Austria.
In Chile it's all the time, inside or out, unless you are sat down in a bar or restaurant. One needs to put a mask on even if one gets up to go to the bathroom and pretty close to 100% compliance.
In Austria and Spain it is always inside anything/where unless seated in a bar or restaurant and not required outside with a pretty solid 100% compliance.
Mostly people wear the full FFP2 masks, rather than the dodgy surgical mask type thing. Government buildings, museums, stations, airports and the like insist on the good masks.
I get asked for proof of vaccination and/or negative test before entering any bar or restaurant in Vienna, and once today while sat in the food court in Westbahnhof - a city inspector came up and asked for proof and ID.
I think that's a good thing.
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>>
>> I get asked for proof of vaccination and/or negative test before entering any bar or
>> restaurant in Vienna, and once today while sat in the food court in Westbahnhof -
>> a city inspector came up and asked for proof and ID.
>>
>> I think that's a good thing.
>>
In France scanning your vaccine proof was mandatory in all hotels, cafes, restaurants, bars etc. Including when I bought a take-way coffee at a station. Mask wearing widespread unless seated (except on trains of course where compliance was 100%) though a tendency to wear them at ‘half mast’ and not covering the nose. Bit more laid back in Greece…but still a reasonable number being worn
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People are still wearing masks to go shopping and on public transport. I am told masks are compulsory on TFL services.
I find the wearing of masks varies. For example at the opticians recently it was near 100%. On a short train journey about 80%. In a hotel 90% in public places. In the supermarket yesterday about 60%, though in the cafe it was about 90%.
Nearly all staff in the retail sectors wear masks still.
At the Weatherspoons in Portsmouth last week almost only the staff wore masks.
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>> I find the wearing of masks varies.
Do you think there is any statistical relationship between mask wearing and intelligence and affluence and education?
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>> >> I find the wearing of masks varies.
>>
>> Do you think there is any statistical relationship between mask wearing and intelligence and affluence
>> and education?
>>
Rough figures... from a night out last week....
The Old Custom House Portsmouth about 70% of customers wore a mask. Average customer age - about 50
The Isambard Kingdom Brunel Weatherspoons Portsmouth hardly any customers wore a mask. Average customer age - about 25
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Mask wearing around Somerset seems a bit variable.
Many smaller shops still request masks and there is general compliance.
Supermarkets have signs up mostly suggesting/requesting but not mandatory.
At National Trust venue earlier today - mask wearing and sanitiser much in evidence, but their "customer" base is largely 60+
Personally - mask on if it seems most are wearing. Others clearly feel more comfortable or protected if all are wearing and have no desire to offend or upset unnecessarily.
Otherwise not greatly bothered, although I don't use public transport or frequent crowded spaces anyway.
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>> >> I find the wearing of masks varies.
>>
>> Do you think there is any statistical relationship between mask wearing and intelligence and affluence
>> and education?
Dunno about affluence, but intelligence and education? Yes.
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>> Dunno about affluence, but intelligence and education? Yes.
>>
I still think that age / perceived vulnerability probably has the strongest correlation with propensity to wear a mask now that the requirement has been dropped. It can’t be intelligence, or people wouldn’t be wearing a mask in their own car or in the street, and it’s unlikely to be education as the decline is everywhere.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 17 Sep 21 at 03:12
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Still mandatory in Wales for shops and public transport. Nearly 100% compliance in this area though some shop workers complain about getting abuse from non wearers. And it is nearly all female staff who suffer it, which says a lot about the types handing it out.
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I noticed today, driving instructors and pupils are no longer wearing them. It used to be 100% until recently, I wonder what's changed?
I thought it'd impossible for me to drive in a mask, as my glasses steam up when I do wear one.
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>> I thought it'd impossible for me to drive in a mask, as my glasses steam up when I do wear one.
My glasses steam up terribly when wearing the 'surgeons mask' style but not at all when wearing a 'proper' one. #1 daughter says the same.
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The trick with the surgeon type is to pinch them across the top of your nose to stop air coming out that way.
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>> The trick with the surgeon type is to pinch them across the top of your
>> nose to stop air coming out that way.
It helps but doesn't stop it. Probably works in a warm atmosphere or the conditioned air of an operating theatre but never for me in whatever conditions obtain in the average supermarket. If surgeons had to do operations in Sainsburys there would be some right carve-ups.
I bought some FFP2 masks that are shaped and much better.
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>> >> The trick with the surgeon type is to pinch them across the top of
>> your
>> >> nose to stop air coming out that way.
Depends in your face of course, but the best way I found was to take it new from the pack, fold it tight in half at the wire, then a 90 degree fold outwards between your centre fold and the end of the wire.
Still likely to fail in going from cold to warm humid environments tho, I have one mask that works well in all environments (steaming up wise) A silk one with a wolf face, from Akela specialist dog foods. 6 quid each mind you.
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Someone told me to put a twist in the ear loops, it sort of works. I presume it puts more tension in them.
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We still get misting up in theatres. Only way to stop it is to stick a piece of tape between the mask and cheek to make a seal.
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Also in large part down to temperature. If coming in from outside (or walking down a chilled food aisle) when it's cold, the warm, moist breath condenses on the cold lens surface.
Warm the lens up or live somewhere warmer and the problem is far less noticeable.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-58685219
Reinforcements arrive in scotland.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sat 25 Sep 21 at 08:30
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Covid is a real but relatively small part of the current pressures on the health service in Scotland.
Scotland runs its own health service. The reality is that most of the problems are self inflicted by poor management, although it is politically attractive for the Sturgeon to implicate Westminster (the ogre in the piece).
That the military stand ready to step in to support civil authorities when required is re-assuring. They have a skill base and organisational capability that is hugely effective.
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>> asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/China-PCR-test-orders-soared-before-first-confirmed-COVID-case
>>
That would gel with a comment from a client who in September 19 started reporting supply problems from China due to a really bad flu closing down some suppliers.
(They are a heavy engineering sourcing company. About 95% of their manufactured goods come from China.)
Of course no one thought anything of it at the time save to think we ought to get our own flu jabs.
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 5 Oct 21 at 11:45
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Reading the article, the increase in PCR spend for Hubei province was $5m.
The population of Hubei province is 58.9m. The additional spend is 9 cents a person.
I don't know how much a PCR test costs - the UK for a similar size population has spend £billions.
So should we get excited or simply regard it as a minor increase in spend following a review of flu contingency plans, stocks being run down over the previous few years etc etc.
To deduce that it is evidence of a covid escape in May 2019 without further evidence is the stuff of scare mongering or conspiracy theory (IMHO)
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There have been other pointers (I'm reluctant to use the word evidence as none is really properly corroborated) to it not having simply emerged from the Wuhan wet market.
I don't see it as a conspiracy theory, which is a term normally used in a derogatory fashion about something often ridiculously far fetched, or even scaremongering as there is nothing in it to scare anyone. It just adds to the other supposed happenings which trigger a raised eyebrow in some.
I think it is quite possible that there was an escape of some kind from the lab - maybe someone got infected. I know that'd be a rare happening but it's happened before I think.
Although overall, I have no strong opinion either way.
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In the news today
head of the Health Security Agency Jenny Harries has said.
People are at "more significant risk of death and of serious illness if they are co-infected" with both viruses, she told the BBC.
No really? I would never have thought that getting both at the same time would be more dangerous. You'll be telling me next that if I get stabbed twice I have more chance of dying.
Seriously, do we pay people for this kind of advice?
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All part of the "get vaccinated" campaign, and cover my political or public servant posterior.
You may think it a waste of time and money - but sadly there are still those of lesser intellect who have difficutly comprehending the bindingly obvious, and think they know better.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59094685
Train usage creeping back up for commuters.
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Despite it might look and feel as though it is from behaviours, it's no going away just yet
www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/11/01/euro-n01.html
Last edited by: smokie on Tue 2 Nov 21 at 09:19
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An article that seriously uses the phrase....
"Expressing the homicidal policies of the entire ruling class,......"
I stopped reading the rubbish at that point.
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I thought you might pick that up, I know I did, but there is still a lot of truth and facts in it if you ignore the hyperbole
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With so much hyperbole liberally scattered throughout the article, no you can't take any of it at face value or rely on any of the "facts" they spout.
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The World Socialist Web Site is brought to you by the "International Committee of the Fourth International", apparently the "World Party of Socialist Revolution" founded by Leon Trotsky
www.wsws.org/en/special/pages/icfi/wsws.html
Smokie, I worry about you.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 2 Nov 21 at 11:23
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:-)
I did check a few facts and they seemed about right.
Lefties aren't always wrong you know!!
Anyway, it isn't going anywhere soon, trust me!! :-)
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I see Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, quit the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) at the end of October, and has declared it's far from over too.
news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-sir-jeremy-farrar-quits-sage-advisory-group-amid-concerning-coronavirus-transmission-rate-in-the-uk-12458214
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The vaccine doesn't stop you catching Covid. It doesn't even seem too effective at stopping you passing it on.
It greatly reduces your chance of ending up dead.
Everyone is going to get Covid. Probably repeatedly until we are immune one way or another.
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Spot on, knowing this it still makes me wonder why they've mandated the vaccine for care-home staff, what's the true reason behind this?
Also I know they are consulting on mandating in the NHS which I'm pretty sure will happen.... if it does that will cause an issue where I am as my Trust is only running at about 75% vaccinated.
We are already in the worst bed crisis I've ever experienced so we could not afford to lose one member of staff.
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Of course it's far from over. It'll never be over. What did you think? That the virus would at some point vanish into thin air?
Everybody is vulnerable to the virus, that's why we needed vaccines. Everybody without a vaccine and some of those with will get the virus. Some perhaps more than once.
Not exactly breaking news, is it?
We developed vaccines to assist us in not dying from it, which they seem to be doing quite well. But imagine a vaccine is 95% effective. That's still 387m. people. And they are not 95% effective.
I don't quite see why anybody is surprised.
We have to learn to live with the virus. Or become a hermit. There's no Plan C.
I'm vaccinated, I shall stay that was as new boosters/vaccines come out, I'm tired of being worried about it, anti-vaxxers will catch the virus and some will die, far more than if they were vaccinated. Bummer. Hardly a loss.
Politicians, the media and various medical professionals have rather enjoyed being the centre of attention over the last couple of years and are struggling to let it go now their 15 minutes has past.
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>>Politicians, the media and various medical professionals have rather enjoyed being the centre of attention over the last couple of years and are struggling to let it go now their 15 minutes has past.
Like Robert Peston after the financial meltdown of 2008-09?
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Miss Z arrive home at 9pm come back from an on-call session (13 hours) due to a last minute hit and run - 17 year old lad - looks like he will survive but has broken bones.
The hospital has a red ward again.
There have been deaths of double jabbed patients from CV19.
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Fishguard now has the highest infection rate in Wales. The local school is running rife with it, two of our paperboys have had to isolate. The school are staying open though general opinion is that they should have a two week fire break.
Mrs O'Reliant is getting her booster tomorrow at a drop in centre and I am due next Saturday but I'm going to see if they'll give it to me a week early.
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If you live in Fishguard, getting covid is the most exciting thing that can happen to you
I got booster yesterday, my arm hurts...
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>>
>> I got booster yesterday, my arm hurts...
>>
...you have at least two more days...
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>> I got booster yesterday, my arm hurts...
I had mine this morning, my entire body hurts.
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>>
>> >> I got booster yesterday, my arm hurts...
>>
>> I had mine this morning, my entire body hurts.
I feel better already
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Actually I do now. Not 100% but loads better.
That was a pretty rough 24 hours though.
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>> There have been deaths of double jabbed patients from CV19.
Of course there have, and there will be more. Nobody has ever said that the vaccines were 100% effective.
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Of course, but it’s difficult to rationalise that to the the relatives of a reasonably healthy 65 year old who thought he was safe.
Let’s hope the new tablets have a good impact.
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Had my booster yesterday. SWMBO had her 'third primary' (means she can have a booster) a couple of weeks ago - she had bad reactions, stayed in bed for half a day, felt sick and lethargic, loss of appetite for a couple of days. We both had two AZ followed by Pfizer. A GP friend says they had numerous reports similar. I was dreading the third, but apart from a bruise feeling at the injection site, nothing.
The vaccination centre was rammed with people my age. At least some of us are taking it seriously!
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The vaccine is not 100% effective and only reduces transmission of the virus.
It is inevitable that some who die with covid will have been fully vaccinated.
The real question is how many of those currently dying WITH covid are (a) unvaccinated, or (b) dying from an unrelated malady (as most of the elderly eventually do)
This will leave a balance of those vaccinated dying FROM covid as the principal cause.
My slightly informed guess is that of the average fatalities WITH covid of 150 per day, only ~50 die FROM covid having been vaccinated.
This must be put into context - an average of 30,000 pa die from flu and pneumonia each year. Over a 5 month "season" this is an average of ~200 per day.
Neither is a "happy" number - but this is what "learning to live with it" means.
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Here's some death data Terry.
tinyurl.com/e2a5twfw
There are links to the underlying data in the page
Last edited by: smokie on Sat 6 Nov 21 at 16:43
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>>Of course, but it's difficult to rationalise that to the the relatives of a reasonably healthy 65 year old who thought he was safe.
Well, without wishing to be rude, he clearly was misinformed or not that bright. Nobody is *safe*. Differing levels of risk, but nobody is safe.
Thinking that one is safe is exactly why we see so many people taking unwise risks.
However, we are clearly moving towards a world where one has to keep oneself as safe as possible. We can no longer lock down a country / school / whatever every time one person gets sick.
As is often said, we need to get used to living with it. The time for hysteria is past.
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We've just had our boosters (Or government tracking chips for any nutters reading this). Drop in centre in town with no appointment necessary provided you'd had your last shot before 22nd May. All very efficient, about a dozen tables with a nurse ready and waiting and no need to queue despite it being reasonably busy.
I had a crap day after the last jab so tomorrow might be a bit of a trial, fortunately it's Sunday so no need to get up.
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>> We've just had our boosters (Or government tracking chips for any nutters reading this).
A GP said how on earth could they put chips in the vaccine when there's several doses in a bottle. I pointed out the syringe and needle are only used once, they could be in there. ;>)
>> fortunately it's Sunday so no need to get up.
The grand prix's not until late.
Last edited by: bathtub tom on Sat 6 Nov 21 at 17:14
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>> ..... (Or government tracking chips for any nutters reading this)....
>>
...Oy; Be careful; We know where you live....!
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>>chips and altered DNA
I occasionally hear this from business people looking to borrow lots of money.
My boss asks me why reviewing the case is taking so long.
I mention the comments made and he agrees: look for any little thing we can turn the loan down on.
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Interesting that you gave a weight to people's opinions about this and use it in a business context. I'm criticising you, but it's interesting how this can influence your thinking in a purely work matter.
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Because anyone who thinks microchips are really 8n vaccinations should have their logic, and hence business acumen fully investigated. Would you trust them with your money?
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When judging someone in business then their behaviour, their opinions, their presentation and everything else you can think of forms part of the picture.
The only thing which really changes is the level of justification one needs to make the decisions one knows one should make.
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Well, no reaction the the Pfizer booster (So far, anyway).
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I just called our local chemist to see what the score is on flu jabs, they said come on down now. So we did, no queue at all.
But it turned out we can't have the flu jab within 2 weeks of the booster, which is booked for this Wed, unless it's at the same time.
SWMBO reckoned flu is more important than booster. I didn't agree.
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... and I've just declined an invite to a CAMRA meeting for Wed in case I feel a bit crap - seems less than sensible to go drinking on top of a jab anyway.
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Here they tell us not to drink for 24hrs anyway.
I ignored that the first two times but the last time I felt so rough that it didn't arise.
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>> Here they tell us not to drink for 24hrs anyway.
You back in Chile, out of interest what vaccines did you have and where?
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Just back in Chile, not for long, just for a thing I was asked to attend.
Sinovac x 2
AZ Booster x1
All in Chile.
Wanted to get J&J but was not available in Spain, Austria or the UK. It was available in the US but currently the UK is only counting US vaccinations for US residents, and I am no longer one of those.
The UK is now accepting Chile proof of vaccine and will transfer it onto your UK record if you have one and if the vaccine is acceptable.
Given that the UK has now withdrawn the idea of Green countries, that means I need to get another AZ. Which may be tricky.
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For once this is quite informative without being sensational. Pay attention to what it says is uncertain or outdated, and it seems a fair representation.
www.bbc.com/news/health-59179219
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Anyone with Netflix, see if you can find Contagion. Its from 2011, I just watched it and it is remarkable in many ways.
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What was in Contagion that was remarkable?
It was about a virus which crossed from animals to people and spread over the world until a vaccine was developed.
I can't think of how the plot could have been written differently. Kind of coincidental perhaps, but remarkable? Hardly.
Wasn't this one of the films that the tinfoil nut jobs were using to prove it was all a conspiracy?
I saw the film years ago, before the apocalypse. I remember it was quite good, but not good enough to remember, if you see what I mean.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 22 Nov 21 at 00:23
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I've not seen Contagion but I have read Peter May's Lockdown - a book covering a deadly pandemic.
I think the point is that viewing/reading post apocalypse you see what the fictional thing got right which at the time seemed almost implausible.
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Thanks Bromps, that's about it.
Some people are obviously more easily impressed than others.
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It is merely a history story, fictionalised a bit and updated. The Spanish Flu of 1918, still makes Covid look like a minor infection.
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I suspect had it not been for massive advances in science since 1918, Covid would have been vying for top spot with Spanish Flu.
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The new one from SA is apparently a bit nasty - more transmissible as well as possibly less affected by current vaccines.
A couple of rumours - the Belgian bloke was isolating in a hotel and someone else in the hotel caught it, apparently with no contact. Unlikely to be via the air conditioning as the virus droplets are too heavy. So I read.
And someone knows a senior health worker who reckons it's already been identified in Buckinghamshire.
Lastly a fact, Merck have published the full results on their pill, of which we have bought millions. Apparently, while not totally useless, it's efficacy is actually quite a bit lower than their press release (on the back of which governments placed orders) suggested.
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>>The new one from SA is apparently a bit nasty - more transmissible as well as possibly less affected by current vaccines.
Do point me at the scientific report stating that it is more transmissable and more resistant to vaccines.
I know that the BBC and the rest of the media said it *may* be more transmissable.
I know that the BBC and the rest of the media said it *may* be more resistant to vaccines
i.e. they've no f. idea and are merely generating sensational interest in their pages/publications and then covering themselves with the word "may".
I *may* be the Sugar Plum f.ing Fairy and I may s*** candy floss. But I wouldn't bet on it
It may well turn out to be so, though the odds are against it, but right now nobody knows either way and the conspiracy groups need no help.
But please, do, point me at the scientific statements that this is actually so. From anywhere in the world you like.
I do hate media s***e.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Fri 26 Nov 21 at 19:26
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The operative word is "may" - we simply don't know.
It could be the government or media spinning concern and panic for thier own reasons - it has happened before. But reacting to conspiracy theories and the potentially misleading is pointless.
Rationally the response should be to consider what short term action can be taken to limit the speed of spread - stopping travel to affected areas makes sense. It will get here eventually (as did Delta worldwide), we just buy a bit of extra time to work out the best response.
Secondly consider what action you may take personally over the next few weeks to minimise risks until the real threat is understood. In my case I can see no reason for changing behaviours (vaccinated and boosted already).
Last edited by: Terry on Fri 26 Nov 21 at 20:19
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Now named Omicron.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-59426277
Prof John Edmunds, a member of the UK's Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) which advises the government, says the new variant, B.1.1.529, is a "huge worry" and could escape current Covid vaccines.
"The molecular data is extremely worrying...[it] would point to that perhaps this thing might be able to evade the immune response," he tells BBC Radio 4's PM programme.
Asked if the new variant could be resistant to current vaccines, Edmunds - an infectious diseases expert at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine - confirms this is scientists' "great fear" but it is not yet known to what extent the variant might be able to do so.
"Our fears are it would do so to a large extent," he adds.
Citing cases of the new variant in Belgium and Israel, Prof Edmunds warns the new variant will reach the UK and calls on the government to be prepared to take extra action for when it does.
He says ministers will need to look at whether border restrictions need to be extended, and suggests mass Covid testing and localised measures should be considered alongside making the booster jabs rollout quicker.
Explaining that a "rapid rise" in the new variant in South Africa had followed a "huge wave" of the Delta strain, he warns the UK is "still fighting a Delta wave" and does not want to be "fighting both at the same time" as it could create a "very, very, very difficult situation".
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Why did they have to make it sound like it came out of blakes 7? Why not something warm and fuzzy, like Tribble.
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It seems likely this one could be nasty. How about calling it Farage?
Last edited by: Manatee on Fri 26 Nov 21 at 21:27
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>> It seems likely this one could be nasty. How about calling it Farage?
Did anyone else hear David Blunkett on the Today programme? Responding to a suggestion that we should be welcoming asylum seekers by sending cross channel ferries to collect them, he replied that was the way to end up with Farage as prime minister.
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@ No FM2R
I don't believe this info is media s***e.
The press are reporting, fairly accurately, statements from the WHO and the UK HSA. Are they scientific enough for you?
I'll even do the legwork for you
WHO - www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern
UK HSA - www.gov.uk/government/news/six-african-countries-added-to-red-list-to-protect-public-health-as-uk-designates-new-variant-under-investigation
These organisations recognise that people read are more likely to get their news from a newspaper or news website that their own sites so they issue a press release. Guess who to? Yes, the media.....
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... and I know it's Twitter but this bloke is the Chief Scientific Officer, Nightingale Health. Also leading the Covid-19 genomics initiative @sangerinstitute, who has taken "a look at the spike mutations" and come up with a load of stuff I don't understand but among the related tweets he says
"Finally S477N and Q498R, predicted in an experimental evolution paper to substantially increase ACE2 binding together with N501Y, but only seen in the wild separately or rarely. Seeing this full combination now (along with everything else) is grim."
and
"There are also multiple (possibly funcitonal [sic]) mutations in genes other than spike: notably R203K and G204R in nucleocapsid, which were recently shown to be key in increasing transmissibility, and are present in all VOCs to date."
There are references to other scientists doing related stuff in his tweets if you are interested. His tweet is here, and has a number of parts
twitter.com/jcbarret/status/1463975708770897923?s=21
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What they have found is a lot of mutations, more than usual in a new variant including significant change in the famous spike protein, that suggest it could be difficult. It seems wise to assume it will be for the time being until experience shows how true that is. Positive cases are measured in dozens at the moment.
Four flights landed from Jo'burg yesterday morning and disgorged on to the shuttle train at T5. Passengers were given advice about social distancing et cetera but were put under no obligation or compulsion to isolate. We won't escape it, good or bad.
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Pollard says the Omicron variant is unlikely re-boot the pandemic in a largely vaccinated population. Whitty says he is more concerned about Delta than Omicron, and that he expects the vaccines will still attenuate the severity of infections.
He also says he doesn't think the population will put up with another lockdown. I'm inclined to agree with that, an increasing number of people have now ceased to take any real precautions.
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/27/omicron-variant-unlikely-reboot-covid-uk-expert-says
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>> Four flights landed from Jo'burg yesterday morning and disgorged on to the shuttle train at
>> T5. Passengers were given advice about social distancing et cetera but were put under no
>> obligation or compulsion to isolate. We won't escape it, good or bad.
The Dutch tested the 2 flights' worth that landed at Schipol from Jo'burg yesterday morn. 61 tested positive for Covid.
We have learned nothing because we didn't test those that landed here.
Last edited by: Manatee on Sat 27 Nov 21 at 13:25
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I appreciate it but you did the wrong legwork
My request was;
"Do point me at the scientific report stating that it is more transmissable and more resistant to vaccines."
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>> "Do point me at the scientific report stating that it is more transmissable and more
>> resistant to vaccines."
ATM it's early days. We don't know the answers for definite although some reports from SA suggest tranmissibility is high giving an R rate of 2. Some of Omnicron's characteristics give rise to worry about vaccine resistance.
That I think is enough to justify reporting of 'what if' scenarios.
Given the collapse of mask wearing and social distancing anything with high tranmissibilty will run amok.
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This page claims to be a tracker for the spread (or otherwise) of Omicron
bnonews.com/index.php/2021/11/omicron-tracker/
which includes the 2 new UK cases.
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I get that there was a lot of reading so just taking the WHO news release at
www.who.int/news/item/26-11-2021-classification-of-omicron-(b.1.1.529)-sars-cov-2-variant-of-concern (same link as yesterday)
It is headlined "Classification of Omicron (B.1.1.529): SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern"
Towards the bottom of the page it defines a Variant of Concern as
"A SARS-CoV-2 VOC is a SARS-CoV-2 variant that meets the definition of a VOI (see above) and, through a comparative assessment, has been demonstrated to be associated with one or more of the following changes at a degree of global public health significance:
- increase in transmissibility or detrimental change in COVID-19 epidemiology; OR
- increase in virulence or change in clinical disease presentation; OR
- decrease in effectiveness of public health and social measures or available diagnostics, vaccines, therapeutics
I suppose you are arguing that there is as yet insufficient concrete evidence, which is obviously true, but I have provided links to stuff from reputable sources other than press which demonstrates there is valid concern.
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>>I get that there was a lot of reading
That made me laugh out loud.
>>I suppose you are arguing that there is as yet insufficient concrete evidence, which is obviously true,
>>"Do point me at the scientific report stating that it is more transmissable and more resistant to vaccines."
You can't, because there isn't one.
I also said...
"It may well turn out to be [more transmissable and resistant to vaccines], though the odds are against it, but right now nobody knows either way and the conspiracy groups need no help."
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I admit defeat. Well done, you are right and I am wrong.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59380745
Interesting that the vote to relax restrictions is something not even the swiss (i think) have done before. Be interesting to see which way it goes.
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In the uk Quote
Two people found to be infected with the Omicron variant are self-isolating, according to the health secretary, Sajid Javid.
The two cases, which are connected, were identified in Chelmsford and Nottingham,
Probably the most exciting thing ever to have happened in Chelmsford.
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>> Probably the most exciting thing ever to have happened in Chelmsford.
Take away the Army & Navy roundabout and Chelmsford has no attractions whatsoever.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sat 27 Nov 21 at 21:21
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New UK Measures announced. Masks required in Shops and on public transport. All uk arrivals require PCR test and isolation till negative result.
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A briefing on a Saturday, that's unusual, something must be concerning them! Can't be that it may be more transmissible or resistant to vaccines, as there is no report saying so... :-)
Seriously, I am quite comfortable with the decision to increase precautions ( - we've continued wearing masks in shops etc anyway - ), but it's possibly a bit late. The Belgian guy took 11 days to show symptoms, which is (IIRC) about 3 days longer than Delta - so three extra days of maybe infecting others he came into contact with.
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PCR test makes no sense. Why not cheaper lateral flow test which can be obtained within 1 hour, and a PCR only if that proves positive.
That way people need to spend less and limit time in isolation waiting for a result.
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>> PCR test makes no sense. Why not cheaper lateral flow test which can be obtained
>> within 1 hour, and a PCR only if that proves positive.
>>
>> That way people need to spend less and limit time in isolation waiting for a
>> result.
Thats exactly the desired result.
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Seems mask wearing in shops and public transport doesn't start until sometime next week. No current plans to have them in pubs, cafes etc.
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Mask wearing is second nature for me in Spain. Can’t say I feel that my civil liberties are being eroded.
And you get shouted at for groping fruit in the supermercado.
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Cos LFT is considerably less reliable than PCR.
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For Biobank I sent them self administer blood samples.
I have one to do again on Monday but do not get any results this time
I did one with self administered blood sample LFT to see if I had Covid before I had jabs.
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I started another hospital treatment cycle on Friday, thats one morning a week for three weeks. In the past (last cycle was may) a covid test was required each week. Wasn't the case for last week, but I suspect they might review that.
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>> I started another hospital treatment cycle on Friday, thats one morning a week for three
>> weeks.
May I wish you the best of chances. We may not always agree, but having witnessed someone very close to me going through treatment, I wouldn't wish it on my worst enemy (or enema).
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Oh this is easy and relatively agro free, just feel like I am peeing razor blades for 8 hours afterwards,
(and there is a lot of peeing)
Last edited by: Zero on Sat 27 Nov 21 at 22:49
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>> Oh this is easy and relatively agro free, just feel like I am peeing razor blades for 8 hours afterwards,
Zero's positive attitude to the fore. May all your razor blades be blunt.
All the very best!
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Well done for stoicism - hope it gets you through.
Best wishes.
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I don't think I'd be able to cope with it like you Z, a slight head cold and my world collapses. I don't know how I'd cope with anything serious.
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To date I haven’t needed a PCR test but I will now.
Any idea how long it takes to get the results back from when you post it off...presumably your hear by text or email ?
I’ve pre arranged an at home assessment re admittance to sheltered accommodation for my 95yo mum a few days after I return home (9 Dec) which will obviously have to be changed in light of recent developments and me, hopefully, getting a negative result.
It’s important that I attend this assessment.
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It was home waiting for me, I posted it on the appropriate day and the results were online about 48hrs later.
I don't know if that is typical.
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By the way, the rules are that you must take the PCR test before the end of day 2, I think you can take it on day 1 if you wish.
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I’m assuming the labs who provide the result don’t work weekends, so if posted on a Friday ( I’m home late Thursday) I’ll get the result midweek so only have to isolate for one week max.
And Zeddo...very best wishes.
Last edited by: legacylad on Sun 28 Nov 21 at 15:23
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I think they do. Your challenge is shipping it to them. So send it "Same day" on the Friday and I would expect you to be out on Monday.
When I did it the timings and service levels were all shown on the provider's Ts&Cs on the website
Some of the sites are deliberately misleading,. so do be careful that you get PCR test, that you get the booking reference for your passenger Locator Form and that you understand how and when the results will be delivered from the actual provider's website.
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Many thanks NoFM2R. A pal sharing my apartment flies home 6 days before me, so he’s the guinea pig.
Other friends who visited Spain this summer had to take a PCR test upon return so I’m in touch with them.
And it’s currently blowing a gale and only 6C with wind chill on the coast. No mountain walking today but an enjoyable 9km walk into Denia and back from Los Rotes.
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>>Your challenge is shipping it to them.
>> So send it "Same day" on the Friday and I would expect you to be out on Monday
And of course use...
www.royalmail.com/priority-postboxes.
I have never used the national test setup.
My nearest post box is at my local post office a short hobble away.
(I have a Biobank Covid sample to send off tomorrow.)
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I thought most more or less guaranteed 48 hour turnaround. They do work weekends I believe. The govt site lists suppliers but I don't believe they are vetted in any way.
www.gov.uk/find-travel-test-provider
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We bought two Randox tests from our local Pharmacy before we went to Menorca.
Returned Saturday, took the tests Monday morning and dropped them back with the Pharmacy at lunchtime.
Had the clear results later on Tuesday - can't remember if it was text or email.
Was £60 each!
8o)
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>>To date I haven't needed a PCR test but I will now.
>>Any idea how long it takes to get the results back from when you post it off...presumably >>your hear by text or email ?
Friend of ours had a positive lateral flow test and was sent for a PCR. Didn't hear anythingback, so after four days started chasing it. It would seem there's no procedure for this. After spending a very long time on the phone, they were told that as the lateral flow test was positive, then assume you've got it and isolate accordingly.
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I see the Daily Mail is now referring to it as the "feared Omicron variant".
t***s.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 28 Nov 21 at 15:17
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>> I see the Daily Mail is now referring to it as the "feared Omicron variant".
>>
...at least it's not the "feared Ohmygod variant!".....
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Christ.
www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/covid-victims-plead-dont-leave-22252761
Suzanne: “It was horrible, it was horrible because then I couldn’t go with him you see, couldn’t explain what was happening. It was- It’s the most horrible traumatic situation, I still have those pictures in my mind all the time because then he was taken to a place, to the hospital in[place] which I knew from before was a very bad hospital with bad infection control and he went to accident and emergency there and from then it went from bad to worse.”
Ann: "So, after waiting the two hours, the ambulance came and then decided they were going to admit her and they blue-lighted her then to the [name of hospital], so she got into the [name of hospital] like early hours of the Saturday morning. And my mum hated hospitals, she was crying going in saying, “Don’t make me go, come with me.” But she had to get into the ambulance and off she went on her own.”
Sonal: "They [paramedics] told me to take him for an assessment. He wanted to actually drive. And I said, “No I will drop you.” And I just dropped him, and that was it. He took his water bottle, mobile phone and his wallet, and that was it. After four months, yes, I saw his dead body. My girls and I. That was it.”
Margaret: "My mum was very, very reluctant to go to hospital… But the GP said, “No,” that she really wanted her to go up to the local hospital, and basically I had to leave her at the door.
"They wouldn’t let me in with her. I mean she didn’t have dementia or anything, but you know she was 91...and she had macular degeneration, so her eyesight was poor, and she was very deaf, and she wore two hearing aids. And she said, 'If you just come in and settle me.' And I said, 'Mum, I can’t, I can’t come in. I’m not allowed.'
"Then she started getting a bit upset and said, 'Margaret, don’t leave me here because I won’t ever come back home again.' She was absolutely terrified. And that was the last kind of words that I spoke to her, kind of face to face, were, “Please, don’t take me in here because I won’t come back out.”
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 28 Nov 21 at 16:03
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Heartbreaking. Surely that would change the mind of anybody refusing vaccination.
I was talking to a friend earlier about separation. Her husband's Parkinson's is now so bad that the thought he might need residential care is inescapable. Happily an arrangement has been proposed by his son that they buy a suitable house together so that the chap and his wife can live with son and his partner, in their own "wing" which should make things manageable. They move this week.
Even without the horror of Covid, separating people who have lived with each other for 40 or 50 years because one of them needs some nursing is upsetting to think about. The boss and I, should it ever come to it, are contemplating live-in care as an alternative. It worked for the mother of a friend who died recently at 105, still living in her own home. And I think it actually cost less than residential care.
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Totally agree with that Manatee.
My ex MiLaw suffered a stroke 10+ years ago. Lost most of her speech, and what remained was gibberish. FiL eventually turned to drink...don’t blame him as it was extremely stressful for him trying to cope in his late 70s.
When he passed it was decided to get live in carers, and it works well as MiL wouldn’t cope in a residential home, barely being able to communicate. She continues to enjoy her home, and garden, despite being incredibly frail.
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Coronavirus - Volume 37 - sooty123
