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Continuing discussion.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 19 Apr 22 at 10:58
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Well they've gone and done it......
Just heard on the radio that Germany could start fuel rationing by the end of the month and the same will come to the UK... now we know what happened the last time when word got out about the HGV drivers.
What's the betting there will some kind of early knee-jerk reaction here once it's mentioned on FB and the like..
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the high price acts as a natural rationing mechanism.
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You might think it would ration itself, given the price rises. A lot of people will certainly be trying to use less gas and electricity.
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>> You might think it would ration itself, given the price rises. A lot of people
>> will certainly be trying to use less gas and electricity.
I am - I have ratcheted the home base temp down by 2c
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Out of interest what temp is your thermostat nowset to . Ours is 20
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was 20 now 18. Its a wee bit nippier but nothing a thin hoody wont fix, and it feels warm when you come in
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Run ours at 17; it's ok mostly. Occasionally boost to 18 if it's really chilly.
Also discovered that with the Nest we have, you have to set the hot water to come in 30 minute intervals, no less than that. I always found our water was hot at any time, and it was set to run the boiler for 30 mins in the morning and 30 in the evening.
Few days ago I cancelled the evening run, so it's for 30 minutes only in the morning. Water still is hot at any time we want, and Mrs C hasn't complained, so that's 30 mins of boiler demand a day removed.
Nest history tells me how often the boiler is on - for years in winter it's 4-6 hours a day. Since dropping to 17 a few weeks ago and altering the hot water schedule it's been about 2 hours or less.
Last edited by: Crankcase on Tue 15 Mar 22 at 12:04
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It has of course fortunately been a very mild winter
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hive has no such history, another nail in its honeycomb
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>> hive has no such history, another nail in its honeycomb
Well, it's only the last 10 days and you can't export it, so not completely brilliant.
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>> >> hive has no such history, another nail in its honeycomb
>>
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>> Well, it's only the last 10 days and you can't export it, so not completely
>> brilliant.
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The Honeywell one I inherited when I moved in has all the history by day, week, month or year, since it was set up, including before I moved in. Since I moved in it’s been on for 642 hours, 18 minutes! I’m not sure what I can do with that info, and it’s not, as far as I can see, exportable in any useful way. If it also recorded outside temperate and the temperature the heating was set to then perhaps some useful analysis could be performed.
Last edited by: PeterS on Tue 15 Mar 22 at 13:05
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About ten years ago I set up some sort of Googly thing that wrote out the daily weather summary - temperatures, winds speed, cloud cover etc - to a Google spreadsheet.
Forgot about it. Found it recently still dutifully doing that every day, so I have years of local data stored and no use for it.
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My heating is provided by a carbon neutral district heating scheme, so I just have a heat exchanger unit. I’ve got some sort of Honeywell wifi thermostat thing, and it tells me the heating was on for 17 hours last week, and pretty similar the week before. December and January were around 150 hours per month. The ‘stat is set to 16 degrees over night (22:00 to 08:00) and 21 degrees the rest of the time. It’s got a geofence setting, which puts it into ‘away’ mode once I’m 1.5kms away from home (can be set from 500m to, bizarrely, 805.2 kms). Though it never seems to drop below around 18 no matter how long I’m away. Solar gain through the windows helps I guess. Or you can run it as a traditional timer system, but with, as far as I can see, and unlimited number of on/off windows, each of which is adjustable to the minute. Too much effort to set that up though, for little benefit I can see
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>> was 20 now 18. Its a wee bit nippier but nothing a thin hoody wont
>> fix, and it feels warm when you come in
I doubt that ours would come on at 18. Not during the day anyway.
I guess you don't have cavity wall insulation, etc.
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>> I guess you don't have cavity wall insulation, etc.
Only part of the dwelling, It will lose 2.5 to 3.0 c overnight
Currently the temp spread is 20c to 17.5 in the house, helped by 26c drifting in from the oranjerie
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 15 Mar 22 at 14:14
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>> was 20 now 18. Its a wee bit nippier but nothing a thin hoody wont
>> fix, and it feels warm when you come in
I regularly protest when the internal temperature gets past 22. At 20, sometimes at 21, I get complaints of cold plates from the boss, who sits here in the evenings draped in a slanket to establish her hypothermic credentials.
Temperature is as measured by an IKEA digital thermometer on the mantelpiece. If we have a thermostat I haven't found it so we have to turn the heating on and off. The joy of renting.
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>> I regularly protest when the internal temperature gets past 22. At 20, sometimes at 21,
>> I get complaints of cold plates from the boss, who sits here in the evenings
>> draped in a slanket to establish her hypothermic credentials.
When I am away I use my hive app to turn the temp down, then turn it up before I get home.
She alternately freezes then roasts, so I blame it on her hormones.
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Funny thing what is a comfortable temperature. Depends on so many things. Age, activity levels, what you are wearing and what you are used to. We we all probably brought up in houses where room temperature was around 16c at best
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. Back in 1966 (when England won the World Cup), winter homes around the UK had an average temperature of about 12°C. Fast-forward to 2012 (we haven’t won a World Cup since) and our homes are living at an average temperature of 18°C.
That’s 6°C more and no more World Cups. Resisting the urge to call for research to study the link between rising home temperatures and England’s lack of World Cup success, this is substantial.
lookaftermybills.com/blog/average-room-temperature/
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>> Funny thing what is a comfortable temperature. Depends on so many things. Age, activity levels,
>> what you are wearing and what you are used to. We we all probably brought
>> up in houses where room temperature was around 16c at best
Except for the room with the fire in of course where you were roasted on one side and cold on the other. I should remind her that she lived in a house without CH until she was 24.
As to how it feels, probably something depends on the house. If it's draughty and you get cold feet you'll need a higher temperature (a double whammy as your house will be hard to heat anyway). In a well sealed, well insulated house with small temperature variations and especially with UFH, you can probably live with a lower temperature anyway.
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If I let Mrs O'Reliant have her way it would be cheaper to heat the house by burning banknotes.
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SWMBO feels the cold much more than me. She complained it's cold even when it really isn't. So one of her Xmas pressies was a heated throw which she wraps herself in most nights through the winter, whether or not the heating is on. Also got her an electric underblanket for the bed, one which she can leave in all night if she wants to.
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Panel of people on the radio are discussing what's going on.... mixed ages and back grounds, comparing Ukraine to things in WW2 and how bad it is, and yet....
I haven't heard anybody mention the European war in Bosnia, over two million displaced people and the horrific massacres/genocide with UN forces eventually moving in, this was a very recent war that took place in Europe and yet many young people have no idea of it and it's not even being mentioned.
What am I missing?
(sorry if this has already been discussed).
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What am I missing?
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>> (sorry if this has already been discussed).
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That people don't remember much unless it directly affects them.
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>>
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>> That people don't remember much unless it directly affects them.
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Exactly, and to be fair there is so much armed conflict going on in the world at any one time you have to accept there is naff all you can do about it.
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I remember the wars over the break up of the slavic republics, I remember the scenes shown at the time, and I marvel now when traveling there, how it has all recovered, In a relatively short time.
But then I remember playing on London bomb sites,
Last edited by: Zero on Wed 16 Mar 22 at 22:05
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>> But then I remember playing on London bomb sites,
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,,,Docklands, 1996?...
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>> But then I remember playing on London bomb sites,
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I remember being bombed.
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>> I remember Jagerbombs
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...patently, you're not necking enough of them...
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>>Russian President Vladimir Putin has called for a “self-purification”
Didn't a German chancellor once try that sort of thing?
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Silly question time...
I have no idea re military logistics or what is held in warehouses etc. but with all this hardware that we are sending to Ukraine, does it leave us materially short should the Russians or another enemy turn on us or
1. can we just turn the taps on and order lots more for quick delivery?
2. do we have warehouses full of the stuff anyway so it doesn't really matter?
E.g. apparently 7,000 Skystreak missiles were made and we don't have all of them.
Last edited by: zippy on Thu 17 Mar 22 at 22:52
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No simple answer, all depends on the type of explosive. Some have varying life before they are sent back, they may be partial refurbed, fully or just disposed of. Depends on how they've been stored or used ie have they been out of the 'packet' they may not have been fired but it may start the clock ticking down for refurb if they have.
Some may last for years in their proper containers if stored correctly.
Some may be consistently supplied as they have short shelf lives and there's no simple refurb process. Some are purchased in batches.
Can vary if you have air launched missiles vs sea launched ones even if they are similar (i know we haven't sent anything like that it's just an example) due to their differing environments, humidity, temperature, vibration etc that they are carried/operate in.
As to what's in life and ready to go, for obvious reasons it's not made public. You can find out how many of been purchased over the years that normally is made public.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60767454
This is a very good article on how and why we got here, whats gone wrong for Russia, and what the outcome might be.
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>> What an utter anus our PM is.
Even Julia Hartley-Brewer has condemned him for that.
Lord Barwell, formerly one of Theresa May's Lieutenants, put it admirably well:
Apart from the bit where voting in a free and fair referendum isn’t in any way comparable with risking your life to defend your country against invasion and the awkward fact the Ukrainians are fighting for the freedom to join the EU, this comparison is bang on.
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I gather there's no love lost between him and the PM.
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Good article on Putins mindset, fallen into the trap many dictators do.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60807134
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>> What an utter anus our PM is.
>>
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60809454
Reliable tho. Starting to look reliable and statesman like, but always manages to conjure up a self inflicted injury.
I was starting to worry for a moment that he might be re elected
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>> >> What an utter anus our PM is.
>> I was starting to worry for a moment that he might be re elected
How are you fixed for a small wager on the result of the next General Election?
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>> What an utter anus our PM is.
Unfair to anuses. It is an essential organ. He has zero empathy and certainly isn't essential. A national embarrassment.
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This one isn't by accident, some of his off the cuff stuff will be but not this one. Preplanned and done for effect.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Sun 20 Mar 22 at 10:13
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>> This one isn't by accident, some of his off the cuff stuff will be but
>> not this one. Preplanned and done for effect.
If so, it makes him rediculously stupid.
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And no doubt he's brown-nosing cabinet colleagues will be a long to support him.... going to be fun to hear how they spin it when questioned on TV and radio.
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>> This one isn't by accident, some of his off the cuff stuff will be but
>> not this one. Preplanned and done for effect.
Preplanned for definite; audience was his party's Spring conference.
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It was a blundering attempt to appear to be a leader of a nation.
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>> Preplanned for definite; audience was his party's Spring conference.
Why pre-plan (i.e. plan) such an idiotic comment? There's been no sense check of that, he's ad libbed it or inserted it himself at the last minute.
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>> This one isn't by accident, some of his off the cuff stuff will be but
>> not this one. Preplanned and done for effect.
>>
Pedant note.
All planning must, by definition be preplanned. If it wasn't planned before the event, then it is a reaction after the event.
HTH.
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>Unfair to anuses...
Anus horribilis?
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A crass comment - to suggest that Brexit was a victory for freedom over the malign control of the EU is remotely similar to the behaviour of Russia in the Ukraine is fatuous.
To take the logic further would suggest that supporters of remaining in the EU also support the Russian invasion and control of Ukraine - as a remainer I find this objectionable.
At best he was simply playing to his audience - it is what politicians do - tell the audience what the want to hear. It's what all politicians do. Sometimes the soundbites are offensive if taken out of context.
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And you can guarantee that there will be the usual suspects looking to interpret or put a slant on it that in their world will make it offensive or pedal it as offensive for their own purposes. Problem is Boris plays into their hands.
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The only similarity between Brexit and the Ukraine invasion is Putin arranged them both.
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Shock news.... apparently as much as 50% of the fish sold in your local chippy is from Russia!
Prices are going to rise do to the banning of fish imports plus a lot of the sunflower oil comes from Ukraine.
So much for all of the.... 'we use locally sourced fish or British fish'.
Now where does my salevoy come from?
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>> Shock news.... apparently as much as 50% of the fish sold in your local chippy
>> is from Russia!
>>
...I suspect it might be more correct to say that 50% of it is from catches by Russian fisheries (but it originates from all over the Northern Hemisphere)....
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We're being invaded by the Italians....
fr24.com/MMI2211/2b37459d
I note the props are at the back! :-)
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>> We're being invaded by the Italians....
>>
>> fr24.com/MMI2211/2b37459d
Looks to be landing at RAF Northolt.
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Renault resumes building cars in Russia, with the support of the French Gov!
www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/21/renault-moscow-russia-nestle
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It would be good if those companies still trading with or in Russia were given a high media/public profile. We could then, as consumers, decide whether to boycott the brand,
For me Nestle and Renault are non-starters and will not appear on my shopping list - be it cars or confectionary. There may be a lot more. Public action may persuade them that ceasing Russia operations is preferable to the loss of business in the rest of the world.
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Reading some assessments it seems that the Russians are running out of guided weapons. Several are failing to explode or fail to launch correctly.
Goes hand in hand why they are heading towards a seige in several places, just keep lobbing artillery and unguided rockets to stave, shell people out.
The Ukrainians seem able to hold them off for now at least.
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According to the Daily Mail we are running out of NLAW Anti Tank weapons:
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10638871/Ben-Wallace-bullishly-hits-Russia-releases-clip-hoax-video-call.html
Time to put in an order for a few thousand more!
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>>According to the Daily Mail we are running out of NLAW Anti Tank weapons:
Good - means they are being put to good use and hopefully stopping 40m Ukrainians having another few generations of Russian/Soviet overlordship.
Russia's armour is nicely vulnerable to Western anti-armour weaponry.
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>> >>According to the Daily Mail we are running out of NLAW Anti Tank weapons:
No problem, according to intelegence the Russian tank workshops have ground to a halt - no spares.
You only need as many missiles as russian tanks / apc's
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 22 Mar 22 at 17:43
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>> For me Nestle and Renault are non-starters and will not appear on my shopping list
>> - be it cars or confectionary.
I have just booked Mrs Z's Nissan Note for a service at an independent garage, it was going to go to Nissan, even though it's out of warranty, but as Nissan are part owned by Renault I thought I would make a small stand.
Same for Nestle, I can do without KitKats and other Nestle products that I normally buy. It's a small gesture, but necessary I think.
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It seems that many of the contracts with kinks to Russian supply chains are hard to get out of.... don't understand it that even in a time of conflict and sanctions companies can't get out of them... why? just doesn't seem right.
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Depends on the terms of the contracts.
Conflict? We aren't at war with Russia.
Contracts often contain provisions for unusual circumstances e.g NDA's that allow/require disclosure if so ordered by a court, or a requirement to perform under a contract can be subject to applicable laws, regulations made by specific bodies etc., or not.
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Seems the Ukrainians have the capacity to start to push the Russian army back, at least locally. And have done so in several areas now.
I suspect this is the next phase of the war. It may continue for some time yet
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The longer this goes on the more sick I get of Putins actions.
As ever, the innocents suffer and there are stories of rape and murder by the invading hoard.
Removing the deliberate attack on a NATO member from the equation, are there any red lines with regards the Ukraine where we would get directly involved?
Perhaps a major chemical or biological weapons attack leading to 10s of thousands of casualties?
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The most recent 35 hour curfew on Kyiv was suspected to not have been because of incoming Russian fire but because the Ukrainians were counter-attacking.
Ukraine is likely full of Russian saboteurs/sleeper cells who are now wide awake, and wants them well out of the loop whenever they are on manoeuvres.
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>> Removing the deliberate attack on a NATO member from the equation, are there any red
>> lines with regards the Ukraine where we would get directly involved?
>>
>> Perhaps a major chemical or biological weapons attack leading to 10s of thousands of casualties?
I have had similar thoughts. But if the reason for not tackling Russia directly is avoiding WW3 or a nuclear exchange, then the question becomes "are we prepared to trigger a nuclear war" to which there can only be one answer.
The glib comment here is the first loss is the best loss and if NATO isn't prepared for Ukraine to be flattened then now is the time to act. But the stakes are too high.
A lot of people are trying to decide whether Putin is rational. If he is, and NATO (more acccurately, the NATO allies because it's outside NATO's terms of engagement) were to commit fully, then rationally Russia would withdraw. Putin has attempted to preempt this by implying a nuclear response and saying that "if there is no Russia, we don't need a planet".
Everybody knows he's bluffing,but there's just enough doubt. It's in his interest to look insane to the West. Our best hope is that he looks insane to the Russians.
Last edited by: Manatee on Wed 23 Mar 22 at 09:07
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I am becoming more certain that Putin will use any means possible to “win” the war. I do not rule out his using nuclear weapons. He is a psychopath. Defeat for him is not a possibility.
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Wed 23 Mar 22 at 09:35
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>> I am becoming more certain that Putin will use any means possible to “win” the
>> war. I do not rule out his using nuclear weapons. He is a psychopath. Defeat
>> for him is not a possibility.
There's a good chance you're right. We've decided that he is isolated, with his COVID paranoia and long tables, that he only hears what people think he wants to hear, nobody close to him has any influence, that he is utterly ruthless and determined, and possibly sufficiently detached from wise counsel and reality that he will destroy us all if we try to stop him.
We also know that if he wants to get away with his imperial expansion, we have to believe all that. And we know that is isn't too far fetched to think that Russia could engage in elaborate deceit if it serves its purpose.
Regardless of whether what we see is real, he will probably continue until he is stopped.
So, how can he be stopped? Will the sanctions either stop him, or bring him down?
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>> I am becoming more certain that Putin will use any means possible to “win” the
>> war. I do not rule out his using nuclear weapons. He is a psychopath. Defeat
>> for him is not a possibility.
Tactical battlefield nukes has always been a part of Russian military doctrine, as has biological and chemical. The last two are very hard to use - probably beyond the grounds of deployment the way the battles are going (it was easy in Syria when there were no Russian boots on the ground, and no-one (inc the west) gave a rats about collateral damage).
Same applies to tactical nukes, - the only way to deploy them is in the West, where they would achieve little militarily, and negatively strategically. To deploy them where the fighting is means a tactical withdrawal from current positions, and the Russian army cant move well in either direction.
So we are left with strategic nukes. If he tried I think the commanders would refuse.
He's screwed, and he knows it, the only path out is a very long slow grind with losses, till Kiev falls so he has to keep going till then (It will fall eventually) and then militarily police a rebellious region till it brings down Russia again in 40 years time.
d*******.
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>> The glib comment here is the first loss is the best loss and if NATO
>> isn't prepared for Ukraine to be flattened then now is the time to act. But
>> the stakes are too high.
The loss of Ukraine is already considered a: inevitable and b: an accepted casualty if it prevents further escalation into a nuclear exchange. The question now is the Baltic states, Latvia Lithuania and Estonia* All Nato, All Eu members, all considered Soviet by Putin.
There is the conundrum.
*I think he considerers Poland, Hungary et all were always untrustworthy non Russians and best left with the West.
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Nestle have done something of a U turn "As the war rages in Ukraine, our activities in Russia will focus on providing essential food - not on making a profit," Nestle said
www.bbc.com/news/business-60850209
Last edited by: smokie on Wed 23 Mar 22 at 16:07
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The current conflict is the price being paid for complacency and inaction since at least 2014 invasion of Crimea, and possibly long before that.
The risks of direct involvement by NATO are simply too high - Putin is potentially unstable and may have the capacity to initiate chemical biological or nuclear responses.
Betting on the wisdom of those closely supporting Putin to exercise some sort of control over his actions is naive and risky.
Putin will not want to admit failure - it would mean the end of his political career (and possibly his freedom or life). The best hope is that he is quietly removed by his clique and that Ukraine then have a new "name" with no "baggage" with whom they can negotiate.
Otherwise it looks set to continue until either (a) ceasefire/stalemate, (b) ceasefire with a face saving form of words for Putin (eg: Donbas and Crimea formally recognised as Russian), (c) Ukraine eventually overrun but difficult to hold (likely humanitarian crisis).
All NATO can do is (a) aid for refugees, (b) continue supplying weapons to Ukraine, (c) intensify sanctions. The fall out from (c) means high energy and other material costs - a further price paid for complacency.
The UN have once again failed to make any real impact on hostilities. Much the same as Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan etc. They may be well intentioned but demonstrably ineffectual. Why do we bother to fund them?
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The UN is its members. It's not a 3rd party we pay for a service. At the very least it provides a forum.
UN soldiers (the members') have done peacekeeping duty. I suspect peacemaking by force is ultra vires for the UN.
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>> UN soldiers (the members') have done peacekeeping duty. I suspect peacemaking by force is ultra
>> vires for the UN.
That. Exactly.
The blue berets are there to keep the peace, monitor compliance with cease fires etc.
They're not boots on the ground to separate warring factions.
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It looks as if one of Putin's ertswhile supporters might have defected or at least done a runner. He's resigned, and he's in Turkey.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60849918
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>> Renault resumes building cars in Russia, with the support of the French Gov!
>>
>> www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/21/renault-moscow-russia-nestle
>>
Appears they've now stopped production.
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I’d never buy a Renault anyway.
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According to The Independent, Russian casualties - killed and wounded - have totaled 40,000.
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That figure may not be reliable. It seems to depend on a NATO estimate that "up to" 40,000 Russian military personnel have been killed, wounded or captured. As is usual in war, facts and figures are hard to establish.
It is significant that it is claimed that 15 top-level Russian military commanders have been killed - this figure may be fairly reliable.
There is no doubt that things have been going very badly for the Russian military, but this does not mean the war will be over any time soon.
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Probably on day release from a siberian gulag.
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Now seems Russia has lost its 5th General, of 15 senior commanders killed. Apparently they are directing stuff from near the front, using ancient (ie not frequency hopping, agile, encrypted or satelite) radio comms, and the Ukranians are just directing attack drones onto their transmissions.
They be safer using mobile phones.
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They be safer using mobile phones.
>>
In many cases they probably are.
The Russian statements this afternoon are as close as we've seen to them admitting failure. Now the aim is to secure the 2 breakaway regions in the east, so they claim.
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Sky news are reporting 7 russian generals including 1 killed by his own troops because of that units heavy casualties.
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Decades ago I was speaking to a group of senior ex-UK forces (ex Admiral was one of them)
there were many things they feared about Russia - nuclear abilities, Navy, Air Force
They were reasonably happy that Russia would not invade Europe with land forces - their tanks, lorries, troop carriers etc were deemed to be the same standard of quality as Moskvitch cars!
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Delighted it seems Moscow are creating an illusion of success and goals achieved, despite all evidence to the contrary in the western media. They will want to save face despite reality.
But as far as generals are concerned it is worth noting that the UK has more admirals than warships. Perhaps Russian promotional policy is to reward the military with ever more grandiose ranks, despite a reality that they are acting as junior ranks!
Still - a the elimination of a few Russian juniors is no bad thing.
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Perhaps Russian promotional policy is to reward the military with ever more grandiose ranks, despite a reality that they are acting as junior ranks!
Sound familiar. Anyone in the UK Insurance Industry would feel right at home
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>> Sound familiar. Anyone in the UK Insurance Industry would feel right at home
In the US IT world, one wonders how many Vice Presidents any single corporation can carry.
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"The Russian statements this afternoon are as close as we've seen to them admitting failure. Now the aim is to secure the 2 breakaway regions in the east, so they claim."
I assume you're referring to the news reported in the Daily Telegraph and elsewhere.
The Russians are apparently saying the first phase of their invasion "is complete" - in other words, they are now changing/scaling back their aims (which they are going to call "Phase 2").
"Colonel-General Sergei Rudskoy also admitted that the military had taken heavy casualties. He said that the military's primary aim had always been to secure a stronger foothold in eastern Ukraine..."
Nope. "Vladimir Putin has previously said that he wanted to capture Kyiv and to topple the government."
It is a massive climb-down by the Russians and at least gives some hope as to how this wretched situation might end. As I have said before, it's likely that Ukraine will be partitioned.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60890199?
Ukraine needs to keep pushing back. The Russians will likely use any sort of hiatus to regroup. Apparently they are actively recruiting mercenaries.
Emotions say the Russia should be bombed back to the dark ages, but of course that would only make WW3 a certainty. And the Russian people would suffer. This isn't their war, it's Putin's.
Sadly those who could depose him are heavily invested in him as the source of their own power. Until they are worried about ending up on the wrong side, they are unlikely to get rid.
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Reading the Times today and a few things reported that amused me - if indeed one should be amused by anything in the carnage:
- a Russian tank driver agreeing to sell his functional tank to the Ukrainians for $7500
- a Russian commander killed - run over deliberately by his own troops
- Ukraine offering substantial ($100k+) for defecting Russian aircraft
- Russian morale very, very, low (or non-existent)
I suspect Putin has modified his expectations in an effort to save face - securing the Donbas + Mariusol to join up Russia and the Crimea.
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"if indeed one should be amused"
My boy sent me footage of farmers using their tractors to drag away destroyed or abandoned tanks and display them as trophies. That was a proper laugh-out-loud moment.
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Paywall. Would you care to give us a brief summary of the contents please? :)
Last edited by: Fullchat on Fri 1 Apr 22 at 13:58
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>> Paywall. Would you care to give us a brief summary of the contents please? :)
>>
Sorry I got it off twitter and it worked fine. 12 members of the Russia Interior troops have refused to mobilise to Ukraine. They under arrest and awaiting trial, upto 1000 are thought to have refused orders.
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Looks like the Ukrainians have destroyed an oil depot inside Russia
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Nicked from FB.
It is not a strike, just a “special maintenance operation”.
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>> Nicked from FB.
>>
>> It is not a strike, just a “special maintenance operation”.
>>
Brilliant, what's good for the goose!
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Just one of the myriad of reasons to avoid anything Russian:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60949791
Sick Fks.
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"Just one of the myriad of reasons to avoid anything Russian:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60949791"
Sorry - I find this a knee-jerk reaction worthy only of the tabloid press.
It ignores the great culture of Russia - are we to "avoid" Russian music, ballet etc.?
It ignores the fact that Russian families are grieving over the deaths of possibly thousands of soldiers, that many Russians never wanted this war and agonised over Slavic "brothers" fighting each other, that soldiers are being slaughtered due to the ineptitude of their commanders - are we to regard all Russians as "Sick Fks"?
The villains are the leaders - Putin and the yes-men who facilitate his war. No-one else.
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>> It ignores the great culture of Russia - are we to "avoid" Russian music, ballet
>> etc.?
>>
>> It ignores the fact that Russian families are grieving over the deaths of possibly thousands
>> of soldiers, that many Russians never wanted this war and agonised over Slavic "brothers" fighting
>> each other, that soldiers are being slaughtered due to the ineptitude of their commanders -
>> are we to regard all Russians as "Sick Fks"?
>>
>> The villains are the leaders - Putin and the yes-men who facilitate his war. No-one
>> else.
>>
It is Russian soldiers, the sons of these Russian mothers, that are killing innocent civilians. They have the choice not to shoot at cars on the road carrying civilians. I could in all conscience kill an enemy soldier, but I could not bring myself to kill a civilian in an occupied country.
And whilst many Russian artists are denouncing the war, many are not, so whilst is the Bolshoi and the Mariinsky in St Petersburg have management and conductors that support Putin, then yes, they should be boycotted.
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Arguments are made to exclude Russian arts, culture, sport, etc from sanctions on the basis that they are somehow above petty politics, often may not support the invasion of Ukraine, and as individuals do not deserve their talent and ambition suppressed.
Personally I think that sanctions should be applied to all. From a Putin perspective they project a positive Russian brand, and he would lose no opportunity to link success in sport etc as an endorsement of Russian policy (however unpleasant).
Sanctions may harden internal resentment of Putins actions, and hasten his exit. He will no doubt try to sell it internally as a western conspiracy to deny Russia its rightful role in the world.
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On the basis of its actions at the moment, Russia merits being sanctioned or bombed back to the dark ages.
That shouldn't and won't happen, rationally, because
- the Russian people are victims too
- Russia has nuclear weapons and if its leaders have nothing to lose they will be much more likely to use them
- the sanctions are being used as leverage to stop the war - if Russia withdraws, the legal sanctions must be lifted.
Putin has undoubtedly damaged Russia and himself with his miscalculation. The challenge for the west must be to do what it can to remove obstacles to the rehabilitation of Russia, not to punish it forever because of an evil leader, although they do seem to have a track record.
It could get worse. The Yanks could re-elect Trump.
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>..if Russia withdraws, the legal sanctions must be lifted.
If Russia withdraws there is still the question of reparations. They don't get to behave like this and then walk away as if nothing happened.
Not this time.
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I can't see that happening at all.
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>> >..if Russia withdraws, the legal sanctions must be lifted.
>>
>> If Russia withdraws there is still the question of reparations. They don't get to behave
>> like this and then walk away as if nothing happened.
>>
>> Not this time.
I agree that reparations need to come into it. Not that there can ever really be any making good for bombing civilians out of their homes.
It will however be very difficult to impose conditions on people whose first instinct is to dissemble and whose chosen method of negotiation is to wave their nuclear armaments around. Inevitably there will be some fine judgement about just how far their bluff can be called and that is not straightforward.
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Use Russian sovereign and oligarch wealth currently sanctioned in the West to pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine.
Make it clear that any money left will be returned. The sooner they stop destroying the country, the more wealth they will have remaining.
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More atrocities carried out by Russian soldiers.
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10681529/Boris-Johnson-condemns-Russias-despicable-attacks-Ukrainians-Bucha-Irpin.html
I have no problems with sanctions on ordinary Russians. It is ordinary Russians doing this.
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At the very least that ordinary Russians ar culpable for not doing anything.
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>> At the very least that ordinary Russians ar culpable for not doing anything.
>>
Apparently 80% believe the denazification stuff. It seems hard to believe that Russia can control news so absolutely as to achieve this so maybe a lot of those have just decided to go with the flow.
They might well be unable to distinguish truth from fiction, after decades under governments that routinely decide their own truth even when there seems no good reason for it.
It should be far more difficult now to suppress facts than it was say 50 or 100 years ago but the opposite seems to be true. Once politicians discovered that they could just lie, as long as they followed popular prejudices, the truth became very hard to distinguish even in a free society.
What is really tragic is that even our own politicians play the same game. They aren't as extreme as Putin but once the truth and integrity have been tossed aside its hard to see how it can go into reverse.
In our own way I think we have been manipulated for years. The whole 'small government' thing is just a way of saying it's OK for the ruling class and its clients to hang on to all the wealth. Surely the job of government is to do things for people. How have we reached the point where a majority consistently votes for governments that pledge to do as little as possible, which is what promising tax cuts really is?
Education is the antidote. But it has been pushed out by the national curriculum. I don't postulate that as a conspiracy, I think it's just evolved from human degeneracy.
As you were.
Last edited by: Manatee on Mon 4 Apr 22 at 09:04
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>> >> At the very least that ordinary Russians ar culpable for not doing anything.
>> >>
>>
>> Apparently 80% believe the denazification stuff. It seems hard to believe that Russia can control
>> news so absolutely as to achieve this so maybe a lot of those have just
>> decided to go with the flow.
China, more or less, controls the narrative in the country more or less 100%. They have very very effective filtering/censorship of social media, complete control of media. The only time a Chinese citizen will hear anything different is if they travel outside the country, where the message is so different to what they have been told its incomprehensible and defies belief.
Russia is achieving something similar, except that there are strong links - familial mostly - between the peoples of Ukraine and Russia and they are not achieving Chinese levels of control
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Politicians here and in Europe are now starting to talk as if it's a given the Russians will 'lose'.
They have certainly not got the expected result, but if Putin decides to win, Russia ultimately has the men and munitions to do it.
I'm hoping of course that Putin will redefine victory so that war can stop, but it's not a certainty that Russia won't take Ukraine, even if it has to destroy the country to do so.
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>>....Russians will lose...
They have c7.5* times the economy of Ukraine in real purchasing power, so I agree that they could cripple Ukraine had they the will.
Sanctions will have to bite though countries like India are not helping by buying up Russian oil and gas on the cheap.
*and about 30% bigger than ours.
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It's clear military superiority does not translate into an ability to control events on the ground.
Despite a decade trying, Russia failed in Afghanistan, US and the West failed in Korea, Vietnam Afghanistan and Iraq. Sadly the outcome has generally been impoverishment, not economic and social improvement.
The best outcomes may be:
- Putin to redefine success in a very much more limited way to save face
- Putin to be deposed - probably by his inner circle, not public uprising
Sanctions need to be stepped up to the max. That a large part of the pain will fall on the Russian public does not cause me a problem. We should also review our long term political and economic strategy with others (China and India) if they fail to apply similar constraints.
We should rapidly upscale our defence capabilities to ensure that Putin (or any other similar regime) is dissuaded from even trying in the future.
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That makes sense, plus add to our own power generation capability and manufacturing so we don't have to rely on China.
All this costs money of course and the UK population want lower taxes and may not stomach the cost unfortunately.
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>> That makes sense, plus add to our own power generation capability and manufacturing so we
>> don't have to rely on China.
>>
>> All this costs money of course and the UK population want lower taxes and may
>> not stomach the cost unfortunately.
>>
I can't see a massive change in public spending, people are more worried about rising costs than russia invading countries closer to the UK.
I see nuclear power seems to be mentioned more these days. Whether it comes to anything i don't know. Rolls royce have pushed for their mini reactors based on submarine reactors, something like 15 dotted about the UK.
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but if Putin decides to win, Russia
>> ultimately has the men and munitions to do it.
I suppose it depends on what a putin win looks like.
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Putin intention, Regime change by taking Kiev quickly - Big fail, A Putin winnow, is now Luhansk and the Donetz. The Russians will come in from the north and the south, trying to trap the best of the Ukrainian army in the pocket. Ukrainians would do well to pull out settle for the loss of those regions, building defences along good lines of geology.
If Putin carries on he will topple from power due to the persistent and large losses of manpower. You cant hold that back from the Russian people for ever.
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The Russians will come in from the north and the
>> south, trying to trap the best of the Ukrainian army in the pocket. Ukrainians would
>> do well to pull out settle for the loss of those regions, building defences along
>> good lines of geology.
>>
>>
Ironically their best fixed defences and troops are facing the Russians in the east. I don't think it's a given that the russians will entrap them.
It's no surprise how poor they are at large scale fighting, now they've shown the wider world. Will they be willing to learn on the job again.
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>> Ironically their best fixed defences and troops are facing the Russians in the east.
Yup which is why the Russians are positioning to come in from the west, behind them.
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>>
>> >> Ironically their best fixed defences and troops are facing the Russians in the east.
>>
>>
>> Yup which is why the Russians are positioning to come in from the west, behind
>> them.
>>
Yes that's a given.
This pause to reposition forces goes for both sides.
We'll see how successful any attempted encirclement is.
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>> but if Putin decides to win, Russia
>> >> ultimately has the men and munitions to do it.
>>
>> I suppose it depends on what a putin win looks like.
He wanted to control the government, he didn't expect to have to do it the hard way. But I imagine decapitation is still near the top of the agenda. Putin I'm sure hoped and assumed the government would scarper when the tanks appeared. The fact that they haven't is largely what has powered the resistance and denied central control to Russia.
It seems unlikely, and probably is, that he will go for total victory now but it's far from certain and Russia is definitely using the reduction in aggression around Kyiv to regroup, resupply and rearm its forces
I don't say it's likely Russia will completely subjugate Ukraine, but the assumption that one of Terry's scenarios is guaranteed is dangerous. Johnson sounds far too smug, and he's not the only one.
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It seems unlikely, and probably is, that he will go for total victory now but
>> it's far from certain and Russia is definitely using the reduction in aggression around Kyiv
>> to regroup, resupply and rearm its forces.
He may well try to go for 'total' victory, but i disagree that they have the means to do so. I'm not sure where the extra trained manpower and equipment is going to come from.
Putin purposely keeps the army weak and disorganised, that's not changing overnight.
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Watched “Death of Stalin” again last night. Just love the arrest of Beria scene with Jason Isaacs as Zhukov. Probably doesn’t get much of a showing on Russian TV right now.
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>>Death of Stalin
Cracking film and as near to a cartoon as is possible using real actors.
Zhukov’s entrance is brilliantly done.
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Sorry to repeat myself but I'm hearing on the radio about brining Putin to trial for war crimes and it constantly being compared to WW2 but seemingly forgetting/ignoring what happened during and after the war in Bosnia.... a very recent war which happened in Europe with it's own history of genocide and atrocities.
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>> Sorry to repeat myself but I'm hearing on the radio about brining Putin to trial
>> for war crimes and it constantly being compared to WW2 but seemingly forgetting/ignoring what happened
>> during and after the war in Bosnia.... a very recent war which happened in Europe
>> with it's own history of genocide and atrocities.
Bosnia was a full blown civil war along religious boundaries, with atrocities carried out on both sides by uncontrolled militias, irregulars, and civilians.
Russian invasion of a non belligerent and the subsequent actions sanctioned by a head of state do not compare.
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 4 Apr 22 at 14:02
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>> He may well try to go for 'total' victory, but i disagree that they have
>> the means to do so. I'm not sure where the extra trained manpower and equipment
>> is going to come from.
>> Putin purposely keeps the army weak and disorganised, that's not changing overnight.
Victory might not be quite the right word.
Badly trained, motivated and disciplined maybe, but big in numbers. But what I really had in mind was that Russia almost certainly has large stocks of bombs, bombers, artillery, ammunition and missiles both ballistic and cruise. Then there are the really nasty ones, thermobaric bombs and delivery devices, chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
The probable facts that army is of poor quality and the tanks are about as reliable as Moskvich cars makes it more rather than less likely that the above would have to be used to subdue Ukraine. Or as Putin might explain "Our brave forces had to destroy the country in order to denazify it".
Last edited by: Manatee on Mon 4 Apr 22 at 14:08
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Badly trained, motivated and disciplined maybe, but big in numbers. But what I really had
>> in mind was that Russia almost certainly has large stocks of bombs, bombers, artillery, ammunition
>> and missiles both ballistic and cruise. Then there are the really nasty ones, thermobaric bombs
>> and delivery devices, chemical, biological and nuclear weapons.
I'd politely disagree with alot of that. I don't think much of their stock pile is of much use. Preservation, storage and long term maintenance clearly isn't a strong point. I bet most of it is of little use, much like their tank reserves.
Piled up outside for years and decades, turning into rust. Like most of their equipment.
There's little point in a million man army if you've only transport for half that number.
>>
>> The probable facts that army is of poor quality and the tanks are about as
>> reliable as Moskvich cars makes it more rather than less likely that the above would
>> have to be used to subdue Ukraine. Or as Putin might explain "Our brave forces
>> had to destroy the country in order to denazify it".
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>I'd politely disagree with alot of that.
I think you're right.
A Ukranian news site reported last week that their military had intercepted a message from a frontline Russian officer complaining that loads of equipment and spares supplied from storage were useless because easily saleable parts had been nicked.
It was also reported that some of the Russian missile systems rely on parts made in Ukraine so, as they used to say at Blackbushe market, "Once they're gone, they're gone!"
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I'll be very happy if they have no decent munitions left and to defer to those with better knowledge of the Russian military capability.
That does however lead to the thought that they will be constrained to use whatever they have, be it thermobaric rockets like the TOS-1A , tactical nukes, or biological / chemical nasties which it is widely believed they hold in defiance of treaty obligations.
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>> I'll be very happy if they have no decent munitions left and to defer to
>> those with better knowledge of the Russian military capability.
>>
>> That does however lead to the thought that they will be constrained to use whatever
>> they have, be it thermobaric rockets like the TOS-1A , tactical nukes, or biological /
>> chemical nasties which it is widely believed they hold in defiance of treaty obligations.
>>
To put it in simplistic terms, it depends how far those with sufficient power in Russia are prepared to let Putin go off his rocker before they send the men in long leather coats round to tell him his time is up.
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>> To put it in simplistic terms, it depends how far those with sufficient power in
>> Russia are prepared to let Putin go off his rocker before they send the men
>> in long leather coats round to tell him his time is up.
Many of those with power derive it from Putin. Some very nasty dictators have stayed in power for a very long time.
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>..it depends how far those with sufficient power in Russia are prepared to let Putin go off his rocker..
It depends if there will be anyone left in the Kremlin to call the leather coats.
An advisor to Zelensky has said (sorry, it's Google translation)
“Someone will be appointed a traitor. That is, in order for Putin to emerge victorious, if not in Ukraine, he needs to win, then win in the internal conspiracy that “was in Russia”, and then "wisely conclude a peace that will save Europe,"
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That sounds plausible to me. Not the cover story, but the reverse ferret.
It would be racist to describe as likely behaviour for Russians. It's more the Soviet Union version of politics. They are utterly pragmatic, or think they are.
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Zelensky has told the UN Security Council that they should either reform veto rights or be dissolved.
tinyurl.com/4m3ve7mv
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>> Zelensky has told the UN Security Council that they should either reform veto rights or
>> be dissolved.
>>
>> tinyurl.com/4m3ve7mv
They would all need to agree a vote to dissolve, and some have a veto..................
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Appears the russian withdrawal from the area around kyiv is now complete. How long until the next phase i wonder.
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The UN, to judge from actual outcomes, is an ineffectual expensive waste of time.
Recent highlights involving unresolved conflicts include - Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Myanmar, Ethiopia, Sudan, most recently Ukraine to name but a few.
But it is a talking shop. Excluding Russia from the security council (or any other UN body) would not somehow improve Russian behaviour, simply eliminate any dialogue.
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The EU have given Ukraine £1 billion in aid but paid Russia £35 billion for gas.
Madness.
Stop using their gas. Use electric heating. Convert VW / Audi and others to electricity. It may be. It will take time of course, but don’t go back to Russia, they have to pay.
It’s time to put full sanctions against all of Russia and its allies and those aiding it by buying its gas and oil on the cheap (India etc).
The Royal United Services Institute have said that sanctions against oligarchs are token gestures only. They have no impact of Russia’s ability to wage war.
Last edited by: zippy on Tue 12 Apr 22 at 09:32
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A nice sentiment but not sadly the sort of thing that is possible overnight. Europe is currently hugely dependant for its energy on Russian gas. It should certainly be aiming to reduce its reliance on the fuel but it can’t happen overnight.
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I thought they did declare that they would cease usage by some future date. But as CGN says, it can't happen overnight. Imagine if our Govt asked us to reduce gas usage by 25% immediately.
I'm not sure they think the sanctions against the oligarchs will really stop the war but if these are Putin's mates then they may bring pressure to bear (though I suspect they have assets well and truly out of reach so maybe the impact to them is limited).
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>> The EU have given Ukraine £1 billion in aid but paid Russia £35 billion for
>> gas.
>>
>> Madness.
For sanctions to work, you need to be economically dominant. If your sanctions cripple yourself, you are no longer dominant, and the sanctions are meaningless.
Its a fine line to walk and a long term strategy.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 12 Apr 22 at 09:49
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Support for sanctions across Europe is high at present.
However public sentiment will likely change rapidly if the lights start going out in Germany and Italy (main users of Russian gas) + other smaller users.
Building the capability to replace these supplies will take years. Germany needs to build new gas terminals. Nuclear power stations and wind farms are heavy engineering. Reverting to coal is more likely (mothballed capacity??) but environmentally unattractive.
The ability of Russia to wage war over the next few months will be largely unaffected by sanctions unless they encourage the Russian public or cronies to solve the Putin problem.
Even assuming the EU bans import of Russian gas, it may not seriously impact Russia - there are plenty of other countries which would buy - India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh.
Conclusion - the £1bn/£35bn sound bite is superficially convincing but does not stand scrutiny.
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Ukraine - Volume 3 - Rudedog
