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Looking a bit dodgy isn’t it? The number of infected but unknown contacts must already be in the thousands if not tens of thousands. Chinese authorities are clearly extremely worried and it’s already reached Europe.
Might take our minds off trump and Brexit.
Last edited by: VxFan on Mon 2 Mar 20 at 10:23
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In best Frazer from Dads Army voice: "We're doomed I tell ya! Doooomed!"
On a more positive note. Daughter is currently doing a stint as a junior doctor in a major southern hospitals A&E department and says that they have received no advise what so ever.
Apparently they barely have enough latex gloves for a normal shift and no face masks what so ever.
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It would be interesting to see Lygonos's take on this.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Mon 27 Jan 20 at 10:16
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If you were to put a regular western europe flu outbreak under the same level of scrutiny as the corona virus, they would be about the same.
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Other fizzy drink are available.
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Yes it reminds me of the truck that used to deliver the stuff to the door too!
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>> Other fizzy drink are available.
A picture of the Corona truck and a comment about the virus spreading is doing the rounds on Facebook.
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Yes, it depends very much on how infectious this proves to be and the level of immunity. With flu there is a level off immunity in the population. My understanding is that we have no immunity to the new virus so it could spread very quickly.
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1918/1919 Spanish flu killed something like 50 million.
1969 Hong Kong flu somewhere in the 2 to 4 million killed.
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More recently SARS and MERS did for around 800 each - about the same as killed each day on Indias roads.
Currently the fizzy drink is an unknown risk - but before we indulge in blind panic we should properly understand he risk and effectiveness of a response - keep a sense of proportion!
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In 1348 The Black Death reduced the population by around 30%.
Asian flu in 1957 was widespread. I was doing National Service and we squaddies went down like flies. Luckily by Saturday lunchtime I felt sufficiently well to go home for the weekend.
Last edited by: Duncan on Mon 27 Jan 20 at 13:49
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a friend of mine is in China right now and is not supposed to be coming back any time soon. Though I guess that may now change.
According to his email it's all pretty traumatic. Lots of people scared, streets empty, all tourist and other people gathering places closed and everybody staying inside.
He also says, and I have no way of knowing how accurate this is, that it's much worse than is being reported and that doctors/nurses are being warned not to speak, share or discuss.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 27 Jan 20 at 14:12
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>> He also says, and I have no way of knowing how accurate this is, that
>> it's much worse than is being reported and that doctors/nurses are being warned not to
>> speak, share or discuss.
That was pretty much scenario with SARS wasn't it? Maybe they're not being as open as they'd like us to think.
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80 deaths so far in a city of about 11 million?
A city where 400-500 people die every day.
Not too excited yet.
Unlike Zippy's daughter NHS Scotland has had 2 information releases so far.
I might open the emails if I have a quiet spell.
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>> 80 deaths so far in a city of about 11 million?
>>
>> A city where 400-500 people die every day.
>>
>> Not too excited yet.
>>
That's the 80 they are telling us about. I know I'm a cynic.
>>
>> Unlike Zippy's daughter NHS Scotland has had 2 information releases so far.
>>
>> I might open the emails if I have a quiet spell.
>>
Got a call from her on the way in this afternoon. Apparently there is a "cascade" meeting that everyone on the shift needs to attend for a briefing on the virus and what to do.
Last edited by: zippy on Mon 27 Jan 20 at 15:40
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"I might open the emails if I have a quiet spell"
Open carefully in the manner of a fizzy drinks bottle
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BBC says that masks are selling out in various USA pharmacies. Goddam muppets....just wear underpants ( preferably clean) on your head. Should filter out germs going up the conk. And more folks will give you a wide berth.
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I favour a face mask and snorkel.
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If I was in the affected area, the last thing I'd want to do was get on a 'plane to fly out. If one person on that 'plane has got the virus, then I should think the re-circulated air would ensure everyone had it by the time they got off.
Or is my logic flawed?
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Probably nothing wrong with your logic generally but I don't think aircraft ventilation systems are thought to transfer diseases easily.
The 'coughs and sneezes' transmission method depends on inhaling the aerosol mist containing droplets containing the germ or virus. So if you sit next to somebody with a cold, and they are sneezing and spraying droplets, you are likely to get the cold. I hate using commuter trains because so many people now seem to think it's OK to cough and sneeze without use of hanky or elbow to catch spray.
So if you sat near the infected person you would be at risk. Except that this one, 2019-nCoV, doesn't seem to be as easily transmitted as a standard cold virus. It has been reported that there is no evidence yet that it can be transmitted via the respiratory tract. That could change as the virus mutates.
A mask might help, but hand hygiene is probably more important. Experiments with dyes only visible under UV light have shown that normal human activity is very effective at spreading germs etc by hand contact, through hand shaking, door handles and so on. Invariably as people constantly touch their faces the dye ends up around the mouth and nose which is where it gets into the body.
Because the most likely way to catch something is effectively by eating it, food and hand hygiene are critical. I try to avoid colds etc by avoiding insanitary grub and washing my hands properly and fairly often.
Few seem to know how to wash their hands properly. The brief rinse under the tap with no soap doesn't do it. This is how the NHS teaches hand washing -
www.nhs.uk/live-well/healthy-body/best-way-to-wash-your-hands/
My enthusiasm for hand washing increased when I learned that banknotes, door handles and grab rails are usually covered in mucus.
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>> My enthusiasm for hand washing increased when I learned that banknotes, door handles and grab
>> rails are usually covered in mucus.
Dont worry, the cocaine on the banknotes is an antidote.
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>> Few seem to know how to wash their hands properly. The brief rinse under the
>> tap with no soap doesn't do it. This is how the NHS teaches hand washing
>> -
>> www.nhs.uk/live-well/healthy-body/best-way-to-wash-your-hands/
>>
>> My enthusiasm for hand washing increased when I learned that banknotes, door handles and >> grab rails are usually covered in mucus.
May I refer you to my post of 20th Dec 2019 @ 12.09
www.car4play.com/forum/post/index.htm?t=27465&m=598608&v=e
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With you on that one Duncan. I think they design them that way to help minimise circulation areas, to reduce the possibly of passing people being knocked down by the opening door, and perhaps because they better obscure what's inside when ajar.
Having said that, I think disabled-toilet doors usually open outwards.
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>> Having said that, I think disabled-toilet doors usually open outwards.
Its a space thing, you need room in side the toilet to manoeuvre the wheelchair, difficult if the door (wider dont forget) takes up a lot of the space inside.
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BBC is quoting 170 deaths and 7711 cases. If true that's a worrying death rate. However I suspect the first figure is fairly accurate, death being a fairly clear notifiable condition. I'd wager however that the second is way underestimated so the death rate will be nothing like as high in truth.
Probably one day we will get a catastrophic global virus but somehow I don't think this is it. The main viral activity at the moment is social media hysteria.
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Why does China seem to be a regular source of such outbreaks? SARS, Swine flu etc. Now Corona.
What is it about Chinese society that causes this?
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Simples
They don’t eat enough proper meat. Cow. Pig. Sheep. Venison
Not much meat on a bat or in a birds nest
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SARS is a Corona virus
Swine Flu originated in USA and first human case recorded in Mexico
Corona viruses are all around us. They do not usually cross the species barrier. I guess China is a statistically likely place for this to happen a:
1 there are an awful lot of people in China
2 a lot of people live in close proximity to animals for example chickens. The current outbreak may have originated in a market selling wild animals.
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So presumably more 'sophisticated' countries which do not have the close proximity of humans and animals but which are similarly densely populated (Japan, India etc) are statistically less likely to be the source of an outbreak?
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>> So presumably more 'sophisticated' countries which do not have the close proximity of humans and
>> animals but which are similarly densely populated (Japan, India etc) are statistically less likely to
>> be the source of an outbreak?
The proposition I think is that being densely populated and living cheek by jowl with animals makes it easy for infections to cross the species barrier. Didn't it happen in Africa with diseases passing from apes/monkeys to humans.
And of course it was UK that allowed CJD to cross from sheep to cows then humans.
I guess an additional thing in China, particularly at new year, is people moving about so once the infection is in humans there are effective vectors to spread it around.
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>> So presumably more 'sophisticated' countries which do not have the close proximity of humans and
>> animals but which are similarly densely populated (Japan, India etc) are statistically less likely to
>> be the source of an outbreak?
Nope. Saudi Arabia, undesnly populated and rich as it is was the source of MERS.
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Whilst MERS was first identified in Saudi Arabia it looks like it most likely originated in neighbouring Jordan
www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/about/index.html
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>> Whilst MERS was first identified in Saudi Arabia it looks like it most likely originated
>> in neighbouring Jordan
>>
>> www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/about/index.html
Equally un-chineseses
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Not really. Jordan is a poor country with a relatively high population density.
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What a surprise
Last edited by: Zero on Thu 30 Jan 20 at 18:20
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>> Why does China seem to be a regular source of such outbreaks? SARS, Swine flu
>> etc. Now Corona.
>>
>> What is it about Chinese society that causes this?
The sheer size and proximity of people. Its not just China as the source of stuff tho
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My sister was out there a few weeks and she's come back totally disease-free.
She's anti-social and frigid so no surprise.
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I don't know what all the fuss is about. I caught it last week and after a couple of Paracetamol a day it had cleared up by the start of this week. It had hit me hard too as I kept sneezing.
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I visited a Chinese market in Xian a few years ago where virtually everthing edible that walked,crawled,slithered, swam, hopped,or flew was on offer, dead or alive with no real separation of dead or alive . Hygeine non existent and the smell was indescribable.
Little wonder that viruses are able to thrive in such conditions.
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51314028
Times and locations confirmed for the repatriation flight and subsequent isolation.
Flight into brize and then onto NHS facility on the wirral.
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>>I visited a Chinese market in Xian a few years ago where....................
Pretty accurate, and even more brutal in reality.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Thu 30 Jan 20 at 18:05
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typical gov response! - land 'em at secure military base then ship 'em up North! - we don't want them on our doorsteps!
same when they were planning the new nuclear plants, build 'em up North - we don't want them down here!
But when it comes to something useful like HS2' - start building it down here' they up North don't need it on their doorsteps!
Self -centred Snobs!
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>> typical gov response! - land 'em at secure military base then ship 'em up North!
>> - we don't want them on our doorsteps!
>>
>> same when they were planning the new nuclear plants, build 'em up North - we
>> don't want them down here!
>>
>> But when it comes to something useful like HS2' - start building it down here'
>> they up North don't need it on their doorsteps!
>>
>> Self -centred Snobs!
You could always move down south as you seem so jealous,
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Do we still let them do that? Without a visa or anything?
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What! and become a Southerner! - No way! (although I do like Hampshire, esp around Bentworth- Selbourne areas)
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I suspected from yesterday that the repatriation flight would go to Brize Norton. Easier to handle than at civil aerodrome as pax can probably be trans shipped in complete isolation. Same objective possible on remote apron etc at Liverpool (or failing that East Midlands) but might disrupt civil operations and/or be less secure/visible.
Wonder how they'll ensure 'inmates' don't try to wander off to fleshpots of Birkenhead or Wallasey :-)
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Thu 30 Jan 20 at 22:07
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Australia's shipping theirs to Christmas Island! - Isn't that why we have the I.O W? ;-)
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>> Australia's shipping theirs to Christmas Island! - Isn't that why we have the I.O W?
>> ;-)
We would have shipped them to europe, but you lot put the kybosh on that,
Tho I guess when the its not a border but it is a border goes up in the irish sea we can ship them over to Belfast,
Last edited by: Zero on Thu 30 Jan 20 at 22:28
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>>
>> Tho I guess when the its not a border but it is a border goes
>> up in the irish sea we can ship them over to Belfast,
>>
...only if they're documented in triplicate, and checked 3 times en route ...
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No no. Anywhere North of Watford will do.
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Regular face masks gibe little or no protection apart from being a physical barrier against debris.
As soon as the mask becomes moist with breath vapour it becomes a two way street for viruses and bacteria, the theatre masks we wear are effective for twenty minutes at the very most and then it's recommanded to change them.
Makes me laugh when I see tourists in London wearing them..
When Swine flu was around and we got a call to go to ED to see a suspected case we were issued these massive masks with big filters on each side.
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Who'd want to be the coach drivers transporting them to Wirral?
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who would be the pilots - flying all the way from China in full protective gear! - horrendous
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What's to stop these people just going home? Are they prisoners?
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Yes, I was wondering that. Is there any legal prohibition on leaving their accommodation? Perhaps they signed an agreement as part of the deal to fly them home.
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>> Yes, I was wondering that. Is there any legal prohibition on leaving their accommodation? Perhaps
>> they signed an agreement as part of the deal to fly them home.
They can whip up some kind of legal restriction quickly enough. Anyway the thought of getting beaten up by the local populous if they found out would be enough to keep me inside.
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Can they? Wouldn’t it gave to go through the courts? I can see that most would go along with it voluntarily but I can also see some objecting.
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Breaking news. First two U.K. cases identified
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Just breaking on BBC, first two cases confirmed in UK.
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...fairly easy to arrange compulsory quarantine/isolation under existing Public Health laws, and authorisation only needs to go be at JP level.
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>> ...fairly easy to arrange compulsory quarantine/isolation under existing Public Health laws, and authorisation only needs
>> to go be at JP level.
>>
The appropriate legislation. As you say authorisation by JP
www.hartlepool.gov.uk/download/downloads/id/903/summary_of_updated_health_protection_legislation.pdf
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An interesting article on the human rights implications
academic.oup.com/medlaw/article/14/1/132/990506
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>> Can they? Wouldn’t it gave to go through the courts?
Don't think so, ministers have wide raging powers when it comes to public health, they shut down areas of the country pretty quickly when animal virus's are on the spread.
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 31 Jan 20 at 09:51
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But locking someone up is a bit different. Analogous to being sectioned under the Mental Health Act. There must be some legal protection and appeal otherwise we might all be “quarantined” on the whim of the government.
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>> But locking someone up is a bit different. Analogous
Nope analogous to being arrested.
(and there was, apparently, secret talk of using public health laws as a restriction during certain periods of civil unrest)
Anyway, no need now, it's here. Divert the plane to Manchester and let them find their own way home by public transport.
Last edited by: Zero on Fri 31 Jan 20 at 10:05
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Flight is a WAMOS airlines 747, currently over Finland. Spanish airline that seems to specialise in charters, were involved in Thomas Cook repatriations.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 31 Jan 20 at 10:14
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>>Death toll now 259.
649,741 more and it will match the annual Flu death toll.
999,741 more and it will match malaria's.
Meh.
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>> Flight is a WAMOS airlines 747, currently over Finland. Spanish airline that seems to specialise
>> in charters, were involved in Thomas Cook repatriations.
>>
It's because of lobsters!
Lobster is Spain's Christmas turkey equivalent.
They have fleets of large body aircraft flying to Canada bringing live lobsters back. Thousands of tons of the stuff and for my sins I played a tiny little part on this blot on the environment.
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>> and for my sins I played a tiny little part on this blot on the environment.
>>
....I'd never have guessed you were a lobster....... :-O
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I thought it was "Blott on the Landscape"?
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I have just been reading this
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-51355255
and noticed that the coach company is Horseman.
Very close to the Four Horsemen....
We're doomed I tell ya,,,,dooooomed!
:-)
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Daily Mail eh, unimpeachable source then. We must be be doomed!
Actually the officeal figure of 560 is scary enought as the number of deaths is clearly accelerating.
Feel sorry for those tourists trapped on their cruise ships for a fortnight and confined to their cabins. Think I'd go stir crazy.
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>> Daily Mail eh, unimpeachable source then. We must be be doomed!
>>
>> Actually the officeal figure of 560 is scary enought as the number of deaths is
>> clearly accelerating.
given the number of infections, 560 is quite benign. clearly 25000+ is a load of bolo, even china couldn't hide that kind of fall out.
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Predictions for official death toll by end of February? My punt 4,650
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>> Predictions for official death toll by end of February? My punt 4,650
I'll go with 2,264
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2% or so fatality rate sounds a smallish risk until you consider that 2% of Chinese people would be getting on for 30 million.
I assume there are actually many more than 25,000 cases. So probably the cumulative death rate is less than 2% - on the other hand, it will continue to increase for some time after the numbers infected start to level out and before we see the true rate.
And I would expect the death rate to be understated too, because it will be based on confirmed cases. And there will be plenty of people with an interest in keeping the figures as low as possible.
So it's all just guesswork. Can the Chinese really successfully isolate a city of 11 million, and within that quarantine the known infected? Reports suggest not - ill people are being turned away from hospitals because there are no beds for them.
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A family were interviewed on Radio 4 yesterday. Their parent died of a flu like disease. It is not recorded as Coronavirus as he died before he was diagnosed.
Today we read that the doctor that first suspected the virus has died in his 30s. The Chinese actually formally accused him of "making false statements" and had him sign letter to that effect.
Don't trust them.
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You are just spreading fake news because your bet looks like it will be off the mark.
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Looks like the rate is increasing exponentially. Anyway I thought you were fleeing the country.
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Pretty linear increase if you ask me, Its not even double your last report.
I am fleeing the weather, not the virus. *
*tho it has to be said, this year is proving to be very nostradamusish, or crazy christian preacher like
Pestilence, Fire, Storms, floods, plagues of Locusts.... globally.
Last edited by: Zero on Mon 10 Feb 20 at 09:06
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It is all a bit Revelations.
I’ve opted for self quarantine in the Canaries for a couple of weeks.
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I’m staying on the C Blanca for another 2 months. Mucho cheapo Larios y Schweppes should keep it at bay
Yes Zeddo, I know you think it’s poor stuff but I’ve always aimed low. Prevents disappointment later.
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>> I’m staying on the C Blanca for another 2 months. Mucho cheapo Larios y Schweppes
>> should keep it at bay
>> Yes Zeddo, I know you think it’s poor stuff but I’ve always aimed low. Prevents
>> disappointment later.
But godammit man, you are British, and abroad, you have standards, an image to maintain. Larios us only about 2e a bottle cheaper, you are not some doorstep swilling street bu m
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The mortality rate is now hovering around the 1% mark. To match the uk annual flu death rate, we would need 30,000,00 cases of coronavirus. We have 8 so far.
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Recommendations then....huge choice in local supermarkets. Just finished off a litre bottle of Larios this week. Folks I’m villa sharing with bought a bottle of Gordons. Here until the end of March so possibility of several different gins to sample.
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>> Recommendations then....huge choice in local supermarkets. Just finished off a litre bottle of Larios this
>> week. Folks I’m villa sharing with bought a bottle of Gordons. Here until the end
>> of March so possibility of several different gins to sample.
So we are talking stuff available in a supermercado Gordons is about 1€ a litre more and far better, or step up to Tanqueray at 15€ a 70cl bottle.
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Cheers Z. We’ll finish the Gordons this week then buy a Tanqueray
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Mortality rate of about 2% may be a bit underestimated.
There is a time lag between diagnosis and death so it may prove to be higher.
Hopefully the virus will weaken as it jumps from person/animal to person/animal.
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"Pestilence, Fire, Storms, floods, plagues of Locusts.... globally."
So ...... the proponents of Project Fear were right all along .......
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China says the rate of infection has levelled out. But I think they would probably be inclined to say that anyway. Perhaps it's proportional to the rate at which they can produce diagnostic kits - I read that there is a shortage.
Much depends on how contagious it is, and if it is highly contagious whether there will be an effective vaccine.
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There is a big unknown with this virus - will it spread rapidly and ultimately kill millions, or will the monitoring and controls already put in place cause new infections to slowly diminish.
But we do need to keep a sense of proportion - eg: over 3000 people killed on the worlds roads yesterday, and the day before, and tomorrow (every day) and the level of public concern and reporting is a fraction of that devoted to a viral risk.
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Yes the Coronavirus death toll to date is globally insignificant at the moment. It’s the potential for a global pandemic that is the worry. Clearly the government do feel this is a significant risk for which they have to plan.
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Does this mean I should get in my fallout bunker now?
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newatlas.com/luxury-survival-condos/34861/
Room for my classic car collection so I can drive around Omega Man style amongst your festering corpses.
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>> newatlas.com/luxury-survival-condos/34861/
>>
>> Room for my classic car collection so I can drive around Omega Man style amongst
>> your festering corpses.
The Doc arrives
youtu.be/_E31HluCz6E?t=31
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Ah - you know about my Liberace fetish it seems.
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...S'funny; I'm more getting this......
tinyurl.com/scotsdoc
Last edited by: tyrednemotional on Mon 10 Feb 20 at 11:45
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May have missed it, but I don't recall festering corpses in BTTF?
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The virus now officially named as Covid-19
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From the Sunday papers I see that Drive thro testing is being trialled. If you cannot drive, feel free to infect a Uber driver?
That could sort out the desire of Black Cab drivers in getting Uber off the streets.
Next thing will be compulsory acquisition of all McDonalds?
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>> Looks like the rate is increasing exponentially. Anyway I thought you were fleeing the country.
>>
2,442 now and rising. Italy, Iran, South Korea all now have significant numbers. WHO soundiing very worried that could turn into Global Pandemic.
Here in Lanzarote Calima is blowing and sky is a sickly yellow colour. We’re all doomed I tell you.
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The only sickly yellow here is Lemon Cello that I wouldn’t even put down the toilet. Deep blue cloudless here all day on the northern C Blanca. Just entertained a dozen fellow Yorkshire folks to an afternoons bbq.
Coronavirus currently held at bay with dubious Lidl €1.99 vinos y Gin.
The only downside was having to return the rental Fiesta to ALC ( not ALI!) and been given a KA. More of that later.....
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We saw the coaches carrying the repatriated tourists when we were driving down the motorway at the weekend. There were leading blue light vehicles, motorcycle outriders and a rolling roadblock behind. It looked overkill to me.
Why make such a high profile of it? I believe that abroad some coaches have been attacked but if that's a risk why draw attention to the convoy rather than simply internalising the security? If it's to stop the patients escaping is that a real risk and if so how secure are the facilites they are going to?
I suspect it's a photo opportunity for the govt to show they are doing "something".
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should have been left on the boat
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>> Here in Lanzarote Calima is blowing and sky is a sickly yellow colour. We’re all
>> doomed I tell you.
Just seen the satellite image of the huge dust storm blowing from the Sahara
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Any chance of a link please ?
I saw aircraft operating on the news this AM...surprised as I thought that the fine dust could cause all sorts of turbine damage. Obviously I’m no expert !
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Heading out there Thursday...hopefully the problem will be over by then.
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Yes all over now. Beautiful morning here today. Clear blue skies and a and a light breeze.
Into every life a little sand must fall:-)
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Sounds good CGN. Looking forward to a bit of sunshine after the p***poor weather we have had here.
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>> Sounds good CGN. Looking forward to a bit of sunshine after the p***poor weather we
>> have had here.
A: you may need to rethink your plans, and B: CGN may not be coming home when he thinks...
www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/breaking-tenerife-hotel-with-1000-21570776
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>>CGN may not be coming home when he thinks...
Um, I don't think Lanzgrotty is in Tenerife.
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The hotel affected is in Tenerife , I am heading for Tenerife and staying in Los Cristianos which is I believe 20 to 30 miles away.
Not bothered at the moment....
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I've had the Corona, and lived to tell the tale. I got it from a geezer in Stockwell, sowf lunden.
I quite enjoyed it while I had it. I eventually passed it on to a crooked (aren't they all) used car dealer who later told me the timing chain had gorn shortly afterwards.
Bit of a weak spot on them there 2 litre Toyota injuns back then I believe.
Well, this is a motoring forum after all.
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Coronavirus - zippy
