(ICE = Internal Combustion Engine)
Petrol and diesel car sales ban brought forward to 2035
www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51366123
I suspect the goalposts will move again though.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 5 Feb 20 at 10:35
|
>> I suspect the goalposts will move again though.
Slowly getting towards the position where fully electric cars are comparable to ICE vehicles for price.
Skoda's Citigo starts at under 17 grand now with 170 mile range.
www.skoda.co.uk/new-cars/citigo-iv
I appreciate this includes 3500 govt grant but that'll disappear as sales increase.
0% BiK from April seems to be getting the fleet managers tumescent - two of my friends have Tesla Model 3s on order for company cars.
|
This goal will shift, considerably and quite quickly when it becomes apparent that a: half the population has no ability to charge at home, and b: the power distribution infrastructure is not there, nor will it be to charge 40 million cars.
Electric cars are an interim, not a final goal. The goal should be "zero emission" and let the car makers decide how they achieve that.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 14:18
|
>> This goal will shift, considerably and quite quickly when it becomes apparent that
>>a: half the population has no ability to charge at home, and
>>b: the power distribution infrastructure is not there, nor will it be to charge 40 million cars.
>>
I totally agree.
Have the government run out of fag packets or the back of an envelope ?
Welcome to the land of Trump. If they say it enough times it will come to pass. :-(
We all know how well the smart meter roll out is going.
My next vehicle might well be electric but I will first need a ramp to my front door. :-)
|
>>Electric cars are an interim, not a final goal
The end point is probably no cars. At least in towns and cities. And certainly not at a rate of 2 per household, or whatever is the current figure.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 14:55
|
8,000 miles/yr of driving = 6-7kWh per day per driver.
About the same as running a washer/dryer cycle for each car per day.
Isn't Boris all about infrastructure these days?
|
>> 8,000 miles/yr of driving = 6-7kWh per day per driver.
>>
>> About the same as running a washer/dryer cycle for each car per day.
>>
>> Isn't Boris all about infrastructure these days?
Thats an ADDITIONAL washer dryer to all the existing ones,. AND in a service station, probably ten of them in EVERY Station. Thats 8500 filling stations, 85,000 washer dryers, thats ?595,000KwH of additional infrastructure* I'll bet my pension its not going to be on stream and available in 15 years No way Jose
*generating, step up, transmission, step down, distribution,
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 17:04
|
>> >>Electric cars are an interim, not a final goal
>>
>> The end point is probably no cars. At least in towns and cities. And certainly
>> not at a rate of 2 per household, or whatever is the current figure.
Equally "no car at all" transport infrastructure is not going to be here in 15 years, or 30 or 45!
|
|
It may or may not be but if the climate change accelerates rapidly so will the political pressure for change.
|
|
Climate change effects will be worse for others than us. I suppose the EU army could invade us if we poison the rest of europe,
|
|
Let’s review that statement after the Great London Flood of 2029
|
Boris will have a new flood barrier in place by then, he understands infrastructure and climate change.
Plus he will have devolved power and influence to the (higher) regions by then
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 17:59
|
The bulk of charging happens at night when demand is 20GW or so lower.
There's already demand levers available such as Octopus's Agile tariff : 25p/unit during the peak day down to even negative levels (you get paid to use leccy) in the early hours.
And refineries would also become power stations as they wouldn't be refining oil in the same volume.
|
>> The bulk of charging happens at night when demand is 20GW or so lower.
>>
At the moment, not when EVERY car is electric. Its not about total power generation, its about distribution to new places
>> And refineries would also become power stations as they wouldn't be refining oil in the
>> same volume.
And the source of energy for these refineries power stations?
Its not going to be there in 15 years time.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 18:03
|
I think you need to look at the speed of implementation of major projects in this country Look at CrossRail for example......
OK we’re all doomed.
|
|
I think it's one of those wishful thinking targets, I don't think things will change fast enough to make that sort of target. The infrastructure especially seems very slow and clunky to build up. I'm sure it'll come just not that fast.
|
>> I think you need to look at the speed of implementation of major projects in
>> this country Look at CrossRail for example......
>>
>> OK we’re all doomed.
No problem We have improved, look at HS2, OH!
|
|
By 2035 the planet will have an extra billion of us to support. We're going to be living in interesting times...
|
>> By 2035 the planet will have an extra billion of us to support. We're going
>> to be living in interesting times...
Not me, I'll be 80 and dead or gaga (or getting there anyway)
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 18:35
|
>>
>>
>> Not me, I'll be 80 and dead or gaga (or getting there anyway)
>>
As will I, either a pile of cinders blowing about the Preseli hills or sitting in the corner of a nursing home dribbling down my cardi and thinking I'm a can of soup.
I feel those of our generation may well have enjoyed the best the human race has had to offer.
|
>> I feel those of our generation may well have enjoyed the best the human race
>> has had to offer.
The 60's were good, but i cant remember it
|
|
The best days were when we humans were hunter gatherers. No work, no governments, just freedom to spend the day doing a bit of hunting and having a barbecue every night. Global warming was great news at the time. Then Ug Ug thought farming might be a good idea and after that it went downhill fast.
|
>> The best days were when we humans were hunter gatherers.
The hunter gatherer period was not all it was cracked up to be, the hunted sometimes objected quite violently and was deadly. Waitrose is quite safe, and although Aldi gets a bit lairy sometimes, its not as bad as the bush.
|
|
Ah but hunting was good for 250,000 years. The Waitrose Aldi Era is struggling after 50 years.
|
www.airport-technology.com/news/china-new-airports-2035/
Will LHR get a new runway by 2035
Boris will sort it.
Can we expect extension leads dangling from windows of flats and lamp posts used for cables to bridge pavements ?
When we start to see multi story car parks with charge points at each bay ?
|
>> When we start to see multi story car parks with charge points at each bay
>> ?
You kinda can already actually. One of the Peterborough car parks, from memory of my EV days a year or three back, already had ten or twelve bays on the ground floor reserved for EVs only, astonishingly with free charging at that time.
It's all stood still or gone backwards since then as far as I can see.
I had a chat last week with someone local who still has an EV. I listed all the local charge points that were either broken, or were "coming in three months" five years ago. He knew them all, and not a single one of those has either been fixed or installed.
The ones that do work now cost real money to use. Given the EV is a poorer experience in terms of range and time, we should be being paid to use the darn things, not having them cost almost the same (sometimes more) than petrol.
As to on road EV charging, it'll be induction under the surface, won't it? Solves all that trailing cable primitiveness.
|
Been running an MG ZS EV for past 3000 miles.
New public chargers popping up monthly in Scotland and supermarkets are throwing them up at their bigger stores.
Works fine for me.
|
you are part of a minority at the moment. Getting a charge will be like trying to get an appointment with you soon
|
Reading the above its about time I finally bought a flat 6 or a proper V8
I flew home to colder climes late Saturday....lost of screaming at the back of the plane as it was an interesting landing at LBA. The guys in the pointy end earned their wage. Flew back to warmer climes sans 92yo 36 hours later
I’m off Greta’s Christmas card list
|
One thing we do know - fossil fuels are a blind alley.
Limited by nature and geology they will become increasingly expensive as the "low hanging fruit" is pumped. They create local pollution and (possibly) climate change. The only question is when, not if, it will become uneconomic and/or implausible.
What we do know is that in the UK electricity is available at a building by building level throughout the UK - barns and stables possibly excluded! Other things we can be pretty sure of:
- city dwellers increasingly prefer Uber and rent by the hour/day. Far less hassle
- profit motive will drive installation of extra electricity capacity and distribution
- government tax and subsidy policies will encourage transition
Things that I expect:
- driverless vehicles which would use central charging locations (timing is only issue)
- some adoption of standard charging modules for fast change or exchange
- improved battery technology - more range, faster charge
Just remember that the EV of choice 15 years ago was the G-wizz - slow, low range, dangerous, horrible!. We now have numerous far better other EV options. Denial of the inevitable is just an exercise in stupidity!.
|
>>- driverless vehicles which would use central charging locations (timing is only issue)
Excellent point. Hadn't even occurred to me.
|
There was talk of being able to put charging points on street lamps. There's plenty of them.
Also all those charged-up electric cars sitting plugged in on driveways will assist the grid rather than be drawing from it. You'll get paid a modest amount for feed-in. That technology is here now, albeit a bit expensive (just like the cars...)
Just needs a bit of thinking outside the box really... and there's plenty of companies doing that.
|
>> Also all those charged-up electric cars sitting plugged in on driveways will assist the grid
>> rather than be drawing from it. You'll get paid a modest amount for feed-in.
Now how does that work? you take your empty car, plug it in at home, charge it, then empty it back into the grid and have a flat car the next morning?
|
>>Now how does that work? you take your empty car, plug it in at home, charge it, then empty it back into the grid and have a flat car the next morning?
No, you have a partially charged car attached to the grid and tell the charger how full you want the car, and when.
As you know the grid has significant surplus capacity overnight so that's when net charging would occur.
During the day you may wish to allow the grid to take some juice back for the appropriate fee (or not even attach it if the price was too low).
|
>> There was talk of being able to put charging points on street lamps. There's plenty
>> of them.
They will all need to be rewired, as they are cabled for about 500 watts max.
|
But that isn't quite as significant a job as completely new infrastructure.
There's going to be plenty of stuff that ordinary man hasn't even thought of yet.
On other forums I come across some very smart people who are exploiting existing time-of-use tariffs in a very cunning way. And they are really just amateurs.
|
>> But that isn't quite as significant a job as completely new infrastructure.
You think not? I'lll not be employing you as PM on that one
|
I wouldn't be applying if you were the manager :-)
|
>They will all need to be rewired, as they are cabled for about 500 watts max.
The street lamps in most parts of urban Hampshire were replaced with 'more efficient' versions a few years ago. I have one at the bottom of my drive.
The cable to that lamp is 1.5mm SWA which is good for around 20A when buried, so 4.5kW. No idea what the upstream cabling is.
|
>> Things that I expect:
>>
>> - driverless vehicles which would use central charging locations (timing is only issue)
I have been saying this for some time.
Give it a few years and we will have EVs that will drive themselves round the corner in the middle of the night, connect themselves to a wireless charging point and drive themselves back to park outside your tenement flat, when it's finished.
We have haven't seen the start of the technology, yet.
Anyway, never mind all that. What about population control?
|
The challenge is only partly coming up with better technology. The main part of the challenge is to drag the rest of the world upto where we already are.
We need to start looking at how all advanced countries can help, support and encourage the less advanced.
That idea should go down well with the average Farage type xenophobe.
|
>> Give it a few years and we will have EVs that will drive themselves round
>> the corner in the middle of the night, connect themselves to a wireless charging point
>> and drive themselves back to park outside your tenement flat, when it's finished.
Thats going to be interesting, 2000 driverless cars fighting over 50 charging points overnight. I'll be selling tickets.
|
>> Thats going to be interesting, 2000 driverless cars fighting over 50 charging points overnight. I'll be selling tickets.
>>
It will be computer controlled.
You can't do original thinking.
|
>> You can't do original thinking.
Even a computer controlled parking warden can't fit 2000 cars in 50 spaces.
Consider this, 25 years ago the computer in charge of your bank account never went down. These days it fails on a regular basis.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 5 Feb 20 at 10:31
|
>> Consider this, 25 years ago the computer in charge of your bank account never went
>> down. These days it fails on a regular basis.
I bet you could write a book about that. Has it ever worked properly since the old COBOL systems were replaced? Have they even finished that job yet?
When I started my mercifully short career with Nat West in late 1973, the deposit accounts still weren't computerised - interest was computed manually using tables, and written down in ledgers.
|
>> Anyway, never mind all that. What about population control?
>
Its coming, starting with the over 75's next year.
|
|
What replaces the revenue from petrol and diesel, what do we add the tax onto?
|
VED equivalent.
£1000/yr should do it.
And also discourage unnecessary car ownership.
|
|
Also motorway tolls, with all these new smart motorways.
|
|
about the only thing that can be ready in 15 years is myriad ways to fleece you
|
Lygonos I’m half way there. Currently £40.68 pcm
Battersea Dogs Home not impressed as they’ll receive less when I croak. As are all the other charities who are in line for 99% of my estate.
Last edited by: legacylad on Wed 5 Feb 20 at 09:21
|
>> I appreciate this includes 3500 govt grant but that'll disappear as sales increase.
>>
This will be going sooner rather than later if reports are to be believed (but who knows when this government will do what they say they will do?). I think it wrong that the tax-payer should subsidise luxury car purchases in this way. In the same way, I think it wrong that aviation fuel is not taxed in some shape or form that gets round the fact that carriers could just refuel in adjacent tax-jurisdictions.
|
>> I think it wrong that the tax-payer should....
Presumably you mean wrong that the Government should.....?
The term "taxpayer" seems to have become some kind of slogan to justify horror and / or outrage. It's sod all to do with the taxpayer.
|
To me it is in the same category as the ludicrously tariffs paid to people generating solar power. In that case money was transferred from the poor (via higher bills) to the better off (home owners who could afford to fit the panels).
Now the poor pay higher VED on older cars while better off consumers and businesses benefit from the subsidies on EVs nd PHEVs
|
>> To me it is in the same category as the ludicrously tariffs paid to people
>> generating solar power. In that case money was transferred from the poor (via higher bills)
>> to the better off (home owners who could afford to fit the panels).
That one really grinds my gears. I speak to people who've sat in cold/dark because the cannot afford to top up their key card. Yet they're paying more per unit then I am and a chunk of that supports this stuff.
|
>> The term "taxpayer" seems to have become some kind of slogan to justify horror and
>> / or outrage. It's sod all to do with the taxpayer.
Well its our money, but yeah we have no say in where it goes.
|
It's only a problem if you want it to be. An example:
1903 - Wright brothers first powered flight of 12 secs and 37m
1909 - six years on and Bleriot crossed the channel
1927 - another 18 years and Lindberg crossed the Atlantic
1947 - 20 years on and Chuck flew supersonic
1969 - 22 years later and supersonic passenger airraft - Concorde
1969 - man flew to and returned from the moon
Since then we seem to have gone backwards. But building between 10-20% additional generating capacity, and upgrading distribution where necessary over the next 15+ years really is (relatively) quite trivial if the ambition is there.
It you chose you could find even more rapid examples of "evolution" in IT, smartphones, data communication, pharmaceuticals, medical imagery etc.
Bear in mind that in 2035 a large part of the UK car fleet will still be ICE. It will be 2045 or later before they become a rare sight on UK roads.
15 years ago the G-Wizz was the EV of choice (not much else around). We now have choices from Nissan Leaf to Tesla. I don't remotely believe this is as good as EV technology will get in the next 15 years!
|
>> 15 years ago the G-Wizz was the EV of choice (not much else around). We
>> now have choices from Nissan Leaf to Tesla.
I keep remembering that too.
|
>> >> 15 years ago the G-Wizz was the EV of choice (not much else around).
>> We
>> >> now have choices from Nissan Leaf to Tesla.
>>
>> I keep remembering that too.
Thats just the vehicles, piece of cake.
|
Carwow video of a range test carried out on 6 electric cars. 28 minutes long.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZH7V2tU3iFc
|
Bit of a bump, but anyhoos - over 10k miles in the ZS EV with no significant issues - couple of glitches that corrected on turning off and on again.
You'll probably have seen that Tesla and MG are the only manufacturers to have seen a sales increase in the past year, and 1/3 of MG's sales have been ZS EV.
Can buy a white base model (Excite...) for £19,995 now until the end of the year.
ZS is a somewhat bland but inoffensive looking car.
The MG5 EV estate is also available with deals from £20,495 new - larger battery than mine (52 vs 44 kWh, 214miles vs 163miles range WLTP), nippy enough (0-60 in 7.3s) - styling is pretty generic and meh: a bit like the Octavia when it first came out I s'pose.
Rumour has it a ~60kWh pack is due for the MG 5, and possibly the ZS next year (~250/230 mile range).
20 grand for a new family sized electric car with decent range capability (and ~45 minutes for an 80% refill) - 2035 seems unduly pessimistic considering 4 years ago 20 grand would get you into a 100 mile Nissan LEAF (with heavy discounts)
|
September and YTD car sales figures:
www.speakev.com/threads/are-ev-sales-doubling-every-year.16466/post-2898225
Full electric cars 6.7% of sales in September (was 2.2% Sept 2019)
Still niche but growing quickly.
The multi-coloured line graph on this post shows each year's sales:
www.speakev.com/threads/are-ev-sales-doubling-every-year.16466/post-2880834
Note the September 2020 sales (graph is up to August) would put the blue line almost twice the height of the Y-axis of the graph.
Last edited by: Lygonos on Thu 8 Oct 20 at 00:43
|
Having done the EV thing, I'll only go back if the charging network, excluding Tesla, gets sorted in England.
I don't see much evidence of change or investment there. Locally nothing has changed in the last four years.
The hassle of public charging is something I don't need in my journeys, which exceed 250 miles about twice a month.
It's effort and tight planning to make it all work. Add in there is no economic advantage any more, and it's just not attractive to me at the minute.
|
>> 20 grand for a new family sized electric car with decent range capability (and ~45
>> minutes for an 80% refill) - 2035 seems unduly pessimistic considering 4 years ago 20
>> grand would get you into a 100 mile Nissan LEAF (with heavy discounts)
250 claimed miles is actually nearer 210 real miles. 45 minutes for a 80% charge brings it down to 170 miles. That is not "decent range for a family car".
When we get Skoda Octavia estate size cars, with Skoda Octavia boot space, 400 miles range with guaranteed availability of a 30 minute charge where you need it, I wont consider it. Will all of this be there by 2035? not a reedin hope. Where are heading up sheet creek with out a paddle when it comes to future motoring.
|
>> When we get Skoda Octavia estate size cars, with Skoda Octavia boot space, 400 miles
>> range with guaranteed availability of a 30 minute charge where you need it, I wont
>> consider it. Will all of this be there by 2035? not a reedin hope. Where
>> are heading up sheet creek with out a paddle when it comes to future motoring.
I'm not sure why the pessimism. Lygonos has pointed out the progress in last few years. It's only 15 since the G-Wizz was the leading electric car.
|
>> Will all of this be there by 2035? not a reedin hope. Where
>> are heading up sheet creek with out a paddle when it comes to future motoring.
Your cheerfulness and positive thinking does you a credit.
But I think you are plain wrong. By 2035 you won't recognise the cars and performance of same that will be available. But I won't be here, so I won't be able to challenge you.
|
Any improvements to ICE efficiency will be small - it is a mature technology with 100+ years development behind it.
Contrast this with the Leaf 10 years ago - approx 70 miles range and 12 hours to recharge.
Current EVs have typically ~ 200 mile range and will charge to 80% in less than an hour. Initial cost is increasingly competitive with ICE. Running costs are ignored - although currently lower they are a function of taxation policy which can easily change.
If EVs continue to improve at the current rate, in 10 years they will have a range of ~500 miles and (in theory) a recharge time measured in minutes.
Realistically the recharge rate is unlikely to happen if only because of the very high electrical load on infrastructure - but 15 - 30 minutes is entirely plausible. In time, inductive charging of moving vehicles may eliminate the need for fixed recharging points anyway.
|
I agree that running costs (like fuel, toll charges and road tax) can be changeable but I'd say it's fair to factor in generally lower maintenance costs.
|
>> When we get Skoda Octavia estate size cars, with Skoda Octavia boot space, 400 miles range with guaranteed availability of a 30 minute charge where you need it.
Tesla Model S is pretty much there now, with 200kW+ charging at Superchargers - dugs can easily go in the big hatch (700+ litres iirc)
£80 grand tho, so pretty far from mainstream.
I like EVs and enjoyed hiring Teslas but could never sink 80 large on a car!
|
"400 miles range with guaranteed availability of a 30 minute charge"
Whilst that may well be a requirement for some including yourself I rather suspect that a vehicle with a guaranteed 200 mile range and a reasonable charging network will be more tha adequate for an awful lot of people. I seldom drive more that 100 miles in a day even though I drive 10,000 miles a year and I suspect that goes for most. The furthest I have driven this year, albeit a rather strange year, was to Scotland a couple of weeks ago with an overnight stop at York.
Are there any figures available on average mileages driven?
|
An electric car would be ideal for me, as I only do three or four 150 mile trips a year. The cost of purchase though doesn't justify one.
I'd also feel guilty about turning up somewhere and asking to plug it in. No more would I expect my hosts to pay for my petrol for driving there.
|
Are there any figures available on average mileages driven?
>>
>>
>>
I think it was from the AA, they said about 7k average a year for a car in the UK.
Not AA but here something saying similar.
www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-car-mileage-uk
Last edited by: sooty123 on Thu 8 Oct 20 at 21:21
|
>> I think it was from the AA, they said about 7k average a year for
>> a car in the UK.
>>
>>
>> Not AA but here something saying similar.
>>
>> www.nimblefins.co.uk/average-car-mileage-uk
Pedant Corner (it's been quiet lately)
I have a suspicion the word average is being misused here.
|
Averages are a dangerous basis for understanding what really goes on.
A low mileage vehicle could be (say) 6000 miles pa. This could be a commute of 5 miles each way for 200 days a year (2000 mies), two shopping trips a week of 20 miles (2000 miles), one visit per week to friends/relatives of 40 miles (2000 miles). Entirely plausible, and no long trips. EV works fine!
A higher mileage (me for instance) of 20k pa. Commuting 45 weeks a year - 200 miles a week - (9000 miles), 12 trips a year - home to south east (family and friends) - (5000 miles), shopping, local social etc (6000 miles). EV with a range of less than 250 miles would be a significant nuisance.
Average car mileage is around 8k pa. Only 22% of cars did more than 10k pa in 2018. Those doing 20k + are probably less than 8-10%.
Limit of 200 mile range is not an issue for most, just a few. Recharging infrastructure probably is a bigger perceived barrier. If availability of charging points in shopping centres, car parks, motorway services etc remains a little ahead of EV demand, perceptions will change.
The 7% market share in September is no one off. All major manufacturers have invested heavily in EV design and technology and they don't spend this sort of money without a good prospect of profitable payback.
Expect EV sales to reach 10% in 2020, 20% in 2021, and by 2025 overtake sales of ICE!
|
>> I have a suspicion the word average is being misused here.
Feel free to contact them.
Last edited by: VxFan on Fri 9 Oct 20 at 16:15
|
An alternative approach to average mileage using Autotrader website:
Cars listed as 2019 - 10 - 22 months old - total for sale 47k, less than 15k miles 40k, 85%
Cars listed as 2018 - 23 - 34 months old - total for sale 44k, less than 25k miles 34k, 77%
Cars listed as 2017 - 35 - 46 months old - total for sale 75k, less than 35k miles 56k, 75%
Not scienfically accuarate but would indicate that approx 15-20% of vehicles cover more than about 10k pa.
Last edited by: Terry on Fri 9 Oct 20 at 14:50
|
There is nothing else to know......
www.racfoundation.org/motoring-faqs/mobility
In particular:
Q25) What is the average annual mileage per car in England?
A25) The estimated average annual mileage per car in England has decreased as the number of cars per household has risen, falling from around 9,200 miles in 2002 to 7,400 miles in 2019.
There are different trends depending on whether the car is company or privately owned. Company cars have an annual mileage more than double that of private cars – 18,400 compared to 7,200 in 2019.
The estimated average annual mileage was higher for diesel cars than petrol cars, at 9,400 miles and 6,300 miles respectively in 2019.
|
No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Lygonos
