>> The UK has turned into a country of scared and panicky glass-half-empty people.
If only that was the case with the virus. A bit more fear would be very helpful, if directed towards avoiding contact and improved hygiene rather than buying bog rolls.
Growth in numbers is essentially exponential, and unless the rates of contact and infection can be brought down this will end up with a large proportion of the country infected in a period of weeks.
Today there are 273 known cases in the UK. And it's only flu. Nothing to worry about. That seems to be the standard view in the local FB groups.
But that number is currently increasing by a factor of 10 every 16 days or so. Until a large number of people have it, there's no reason to suppose that rate can be brought down without a reduction in contact rates (through restriction and isolation) or infection rates on contact ( through hygiene etc).
At the current rate we should hit the peak sometime between 2 and 3 months from now - exactly as the Chief Medical Officer has intimated, although I don't think he has mentioned that the number will be in the millions.
The big rider to this is the sensitivity to the growth rate of about 15% per day. SLow it down enough and the peak number of live infections drops massively as more people have recovered.
Worth a look -
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR20kZIByefRWUkIAWhOckts_nRpdIZw0cWXPW2q8h7gEQjk-KByQLxqt6E
|
