It's not one or the other - some office jobs will simply be more efficient with WFH, others not.
A lot of office space isn't cheap and a modest reduction in productivity might easily be offset. On the other hand, when effectiveness suffers then the disadvantages of homeworking might outweigh the net savings.
There will also be combinations - teams could spend a proportion of their time in the office to maintain the soft benefits of working together, motivation, competition, esprit de corps, knowledge sharing.
Video meetings will become more effective as people get better at them as has already happened. I have a regular meeting commitment as a member of a trustee board and we have got much better at it over the last four months. I at least am far less aware of the physical separation than I was to begin with despite having some prior experience of video meetings. I was the first to say I would attend a meeting virtually, about two weeks before lockdown, and I was the only one at that meeting not physically present. All subsequent meetings have been entirely virtual. This isn't a normal work situation of course, but one can see the potential for reducing space, time and travel needed solely for meetings in almost any industry.
We have generally used the offices of one of our consulting firms for meetings - I know they have been debating how much expensive space they really need in the West End and I suspect they will want to reduce it - all their staff have been WFH for over four months now and doing everything they normally do, with the offices almost completely empty.
Futurology is a mug's game but the question really is not whether people would choose to ditch the old ways but whether, in the end, doing so is simply more competitive. That's what's happening with retail. JLP for example already had 40% of its sales online before the pandemic. It must now be near impossible competitively to sustain a large-durable-goods business with the majority of its sales from bricks and mortar shops - for the near future I think they will have a role, giving some physical reassurance to customers and as bases for the provision of ancillary services and showrooms. To date, with the obvious exception, purely online retailers of things like large electricals and furniture have struggled with profitability but the tipping point has been getting nearer. Online is doing to big shops what Tesco and those who followed did to the high street, only faster because online doesn't need complicated property pipelines and expensive building projects.
If firms can make a success of remote working then they can save vast sums, directly and indirectly. We know some won't find it easy to WFH but many others will jump at it and probably work for less money. Long commutes are expensive for employees in time, money and well-being.
I wouldn't put much money on the Watford INTU (Harlequin) centre and similar places being shops in 5 years' time. I know little about commercial property but the likes of Hammerson, INTU, British Land etc must be very exposed with sound tenants evaporating. Tenants such as JLP, M&S, will presumably continue paying rent while the leases run but as they roll off the money will stop and in the meantime the centres are missing their anchor tenants. The VC's will presumably be gathering investors to pick up the pieces.
I don't want to catastrophise, equilibrium has a way of returning, but there are a lot of dominoes.
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 20 Aug 20 at 11:28
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