MotoGP preview: Germany

Valentino Rossi will definitely join Ducati next season. At least he will if you believe the fevered press speculation that has boiled over during the past fortnight. If, however, you take a more considered approach, read between the lines and make a few educated guesses, then you arrive, inescapably, at... exactly the same conclusion.

So why would Rossi be willing to leave the Yamaha MotoGP team he so loves? A team with whom he's achieved more success than any other, racking up 45 grand prix victories and four world championships?

The answers lie not in the recent paddock leaks and whispers that have kept interest in the sport bubbling while Rossi recovers from a broken leg, but in an interview he gave last November.

It might have been seven months ago, but I can remember word for word what he said - not just because he was talking to me, but because it was so startling.

"I think Yamaha has to decide between me and Jorge (Lorenzo, his team-mate) for 2011," he said, before revealing for the first time: "I have a great option to go to Ducati."

Boom. As shots across the bows go, that must have made even the stoic Yamaha management flinch. It doesn't take a quantum leap of logic to work out what he meant. Essentially, Rossi has always resented Lorenzo profiting from the joy-to-ride Yamaha M1 that he helped develop.

Some riders sit on a bike and wouldn't be able to tell if the front forks had been replaced by broom handles, but others are so sensitive they get overwhelmed by feelings from the moment they leave the pit-lane. Rossi is undoubtedly the best when it comes to delivering engineering feedback.

Just look at his recent test-rides on a World Superbike - rather than solely being an exercise in seeing if his leg and shoulder injuries were sufficiently healed prior to this weekend's German Grand Prix at the Sachsenring, Rossi ended up delivering detailed insight about the bike's set-up.

That skill is a priceless commodity, and understandably one you wouldn't be keen to share with a chief rival, hence the "it's him or me" ultimatum.

Yamaha has been quite clear in saying its ideal scenario is for both Rossi and Lorenzo to stay - which to Valentino's ears must sound like "we're ignoring your request".

Other factors are playing a part. Two years ago, when Rossi renewed his contract with Yamaha, he cited his relationship with respected technical chief Masao Furosawa as a major reason for staying.

Furosawa-san will be retiring next year, and with that will disappear one of the strongest bonds between the rider and the team. The pull of starting a new chapter in his illustrious MotoGP career on an Italian bike will suddenly become a hell of a lot stronger.

Then there's the simple fact there's now a spare berth at Ducati, with Casey Stoner having announced he's leaving the Italian factory to join Honda next season. Interestingly, this isn't the first time Rossi has been offered a contract by Ducati - he could have joined them instead of Yamaha when he left Honda in 2003.

He was put off then by the fact he wouldn't have been allowed to develop the bike how he wanted to. Subsequently, the red bike has often seemed entirely unfathomable, dumping riders when they least expect it and crushing the confidence of all who sit on it.

One suspects that Ducati's engineering department is now eagerly awaiting Rossi's arrival to provide some development direction, and as team-mate in waiting Nicky Hayden said recently, "I just hope he brings the guy who calls the shots", referring to wise old crew chief Jerry Burgess.

But before all that, there's the rest of this season to get through. The indefatigable Lorenzo currently has a 52-point lead over the man in second place, Dani Pedrosa, and a 104-point lead over Rossi.

If that sounds insurmountable for a man on crutches who's also nursing a dodgy shoulder, then scald yourself for not thinking like a champion - you can bet your bottom dollar that all Valentino can see are 275 points still to play for.

Watch the German MotoGP, Sunday July 18 on BBC Two at 12.45pm