US Edition Who is going to blink first? This morning, David Cameron set out the case for military intervention in Syria. This afternoon, the shadow cabinet will meet for one hour (Jeremy Corbyn has stipulated there will be a time limit on their discussions) to consider Labour’s response.
The leader of the Labour party is clear in his mind. His party should oppose the Prime Minister. The majority of Labour’s shadow cabinet are clear in their own minds. Their party should support the Prime Minister.
Labour’s internal phoney war is about to be brought to an end by a real war. The mood among shadow ministers has changed. “We haven’t got any choice,” one said to me yesterday. “We have to take him on now.”
At the end of last week prevailing opinion within the PLP was that they should push for a “free vote” on Syria, allowing both sides an opportunity to save face. But over the weekend views started to harden. Partly that was as a result of the reaction on the doorsteps to Jeremy Corbyn’s response to the Paris attacks, and his shoot-to-kill comments in particular. “We were out leafleting on tax credits in rock solid Labour areas, and people were handing us the leaflets back. I’ve never seen a reaction like it before,” said one backbencher.
A final thing that has hardened attitudes is what happened to shadow ministers when they returned to their offices after Tuesday’s shadow cabinet meeting. Jeremy Corbyn had asked them to spend time in their constituencies “consulting” with their members. But as they walked into their offices they were informed their parliamentary email accounts had started filling up with demands they oppose military action. The wording on the emails was almost identical, and closely echoed the words used by the Corbynite campaign group “Momentum” in its communication to its own members. It subsequently emerged the wording was being circulated by Simeon Andrews, a close ally of the shadow chancellor, John McDonnell.
As Peter Dominiczak and Ben Riley-Smith reported in the Telegraph, this was viewed by members of the shadow cabinet as nothing less than an attempt to “terrorise” them into backing their leader. It had the opposite effect. “People in the shadow cabinet who were thinking 'we’ve got to try and make this work' are saying to themselves 'it’s them or us now',” said one former shadow minister who refused to serve under Corbyn.
There are now three possible outcomes to Labour’s Syrian stand-off. The first is that Labour tries to fudge its stance, and opts for a free vote. In many ways, that would be the most damaging option of all. Corbyn would have been forced to back down, his shadow ministers would have been forced to back down, and Labour will have been left with no coherent stance on a decision to send British troops to war. The party’s credibility – already in the dustbin – would be consigned to a political landfill.
The second is that Corbyn caves, and agrees to support air strikes. On the Today program this morning John McDonnell took a break from quoting Chairman Mao to deliver his view on those proposed strikes. “We have to learn the lessons from Iraq,” he said. It’s fair to assume the lesson he and his leader have learnt is not to bomb hard and true.
The third option is that Jeremy Corbyn simply tries to face his critics down. He sticks to his position and tells his party they must oppose military action. At that point there would be significant – if not mass – resignations from the Labour front bench. Or at least we would see a number of shadow ministers simply defy the whip and challenge their leader to sack them.
Either way, a confrontation cannot be avoided. Even if the free-vote option is pursued, dozens of Labour MPs and shadow ministers will be seen to have openly defied their leader. They will have to justify that decision in radio and television broadcasts. And they will have to explain how – if they do not have confidence in Jeremy Corbyn’s judgment on an issue as important as war and peace – the can expect the British people to have confidence in him.
It will also bring them into conflict with that people’s militia that are the “Momentum” activists. The cries of “betrayal” will become deafening. As will the demands for deselections.
Who will blink first? In truth, no one will blink. No one can blink. The country is going to war. And so is the Labour party.