Non-motoring > Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... Miscellaneous
Thread Author: L'escargot Replies: 19
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 08:29 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - L'escargot
tinyurl.com/d88j2oj

I'm pleased they brought that up!
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 08:46 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - CGNorwich
Had that a few years ago whilst on holiday in Madeira. As ill as I've ever felt in my life. A really unpleasant and highly contagious disease.
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 09:44 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Meldrew
Were you in Madeira on a shore trip from a cruise liner? They seem to be a great source of this sort of thing although not for 700,000 people obviously!
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 09:56 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - CGNorwich
Staying in a rented apartment fortunately. Wouldn't have wanted to be that ill in a hotel room. Quite likely I suppose that the illness arrived on the Island via a cruise liner. Spread like wild fire and many locals as well as holidaymakers went down with it.
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 11:08 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Crankcase
We've both just had this, as have two colleagues this week. It's jolly nasty, yes.
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 11:34 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Bromptonaut
Christmas travel and socialising will be an excellent vector for transmission of this and other infections. Probably how the 'winter' moniker arose.
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 11:59 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Focusless
NHS info here: www.nhs.uk/conditions/Norovirus/Pages/Introduction.aspx
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 16:01 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - neiltoo
Statistics eh?

"Officials at the HPA say that for every confirmed case there are another 288 in the community which are never tested."

How can they possibly know this to that degree of accuracy?
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 16:11 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - crocks
I don't know. It is two gross to consider. ;-)
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 19:13 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Meldrew
Same rubbish over the weekend. Statement that there are 25000 people in UK, infected with HIV/AIDS, but who do not know it. If they don't know they are infected how does anybody else know?
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 22:25 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - CGNorwich
"how does anybody else know?"


Sampling.

You don't need to count everyone. You take a random sample and extrapolate for the population as a whole. If the sample is of a reasonable size and is representative of the population as a whole the estimate can be remarkably accurate.
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New Thu 6 Dec 12 22:46 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - legacylad
I had first hand experience of this bug last Saturday.
OK Sat am, three hours in the Exploratorium in SF, then after taking light refreshment the length of Chestnut Street enjoying micro beers, tequila chasers, the odd margerita and a nice NZ Sav Blanc it hit me badly.
To recover, I recommend a bloody Mary or two in the Hi Dive Bar, just S of the Bay Bridge close to where the Giants play. Glad it only lasted 12 hours.
Last edited by: VxFan on Sun 16 Dec 12 at 18:10
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New Fri 7 Dec 12 07:23 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Meldrew
Too early for me to be up to speed! How can you sample and identify people who don 't know they have got AIDS?
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New Fri 7 Dec 12 08:21 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - madf
Read how Opinion Polls work.

They sample and are usually accurate - at any one time - to +/-2 to 3%...

A UK sample of 1,200 people forecast what 30million vote..
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New Fri 7 Dec 12 08:29 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Bromptonaut
>> Too early for me to be up to speed! How can you sample and identify
>> people who don 't know they have got AIDS?


A guess but:

There are (a) those people who, perhaps in a high risk group, seek a test and diagnosis. Second group (b) present with symptoms of recurrent opportunistic infection but no suspicion of AIDS or are tested for other purposes such as unrelated hospital treatment or a medical exam. Results can be extrapolated from those identified in (b).

They interviewed an example on the radio when this was in news. Woman had recurrent respiratory and other infections eventually ending up in intensive care. Not in high risk group but had, it turned out, caught it from the second of four sexual partners she'd had in her lifetime.
Last edited by: Bromptonaut on Fri 7 Dec 12 at 08:31
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New Fri 7 Dec 12 08:50 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Meldrew
I am getting there, slowly! If people have been tested then they have a result and they know if they are or aren't infected so they can't be in a group of 25000 people who don't know if they have got it, can they?
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New Fri 7 Dec 12 09:05 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Bromptonaut
>> I am getting there, slowly! If people have been tested then they have a result
>> and they know if they are or aren't infected so they can't be in a
>> group of 25000 people who don't know if they have got it, can they?

And you can extrapolate from those diagnosed 'out of the blue' that there are n more, presumably relatively asymptomatic, still out there.
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New Fri 7 Dec 12 09:35 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Meldrew
A very clear explanation - thank you!
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New Fri 7 Dec 12 20:32 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - John H
>> And you can extrapolate from those diagnosed 'out of the blue' that there are n
>> more, presumably relatively asymptomatic, still out there.
>>

Also, doesn't the NHS or somebody take random anonymised samples from somewhere (possibly the Blood transfusion service) for tests and then finds HIV poitives among those samples, but due to the anonymised nature of the samples they are unable to inform the person who is infected?

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New Fri 7 Dec 12 20:50 
 Winter vomiting bug hits 700,000 people .......... - Meldrew
SFAIK all transfusion blood is checked for HIV, CJD, at least, and maybe hepatitis. Don't what happens to the large number of samples I give to my GP now and again for Cholesterol, liver function and other tests.
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