www.economist.com/interactive/uk-general-election/build-a-voter
Bung in whatever demographic you want.
People with my profile are 16% Labour, 23% Lib Dem, 43%.
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Based on my profile: 10% Lib. 18% Ref. 22% Lab. 47% Con.
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Lab 33%, Con 32%, Ref 17%
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Me - 10% Green, 21% LibDem, 23% Labour, 36% Tory.
Playing around with the model the key determinant of voting intentions seems to be age. Older folk of 55+ tend to be Tory, below 45 are predominantly Labour.
it seems the budget just now has focussed on the group most likely to be influenced to vote Tory rather than Labour - in work, moderate to good incomes, 35-55 years old, own home (possibly mortgaged), most likely to have children:
- 2% cut in NI and allowances unchanged benefits those working and earning £25-60k
- child allowance/nursery changes benefits parents (typically age 30-50)
- no increase in fuel duty helps reduce inflation
The NI cut and child benefit changes are of no benefit to pensioners which is main Tory demographic and will likely make little difference to their voting intentions.
Those with low earnings, no children and renting are unlikely to be Tory voters even with a budget bribe.
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2024 - Lib 8%, Lab 22%, SNP 25%, Tory 38%
2019 - Lib 8%, Lab 13%, SNP 27%, Tory 49%
Seems about right - since Ruth Davidson was elevated to the Lords, the Tories have been struggling - their current leader looks like a soccer hooligan but with less charisma (he is a football referee in his spare time!)
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"A white man aged 75+ from the East of England, who owns a home in a suburban area, is retired and has a postgraduate degree has a:
50% chance of voting Conservative
20% Lib Dem
12% Labour"
No way is there even a 50% chance I would vote Tory and not even a 20% chance I would vote Labour. Not sure about Lib Dems.
Yes, I know it's all about averages, statistics, projections - whatever.
Last edited by: James Loveless on Wed 6 Mar 24 at 23:13
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Mid sixties, white British, 64+ own home owned outright, in part time work (implicitly semi retired?) is - main parties:
Tory 46%
Lab 23%
LD 13%
Personally:
Labour - Government of choice
Tory - Why would I?
LD/others - possible tactical alternatives to Labour so as to exclude a Tory.
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Suburban, South East, home owner (small mortgage < cost of new soft-roader), late 50s (not that I want to admit it).
Tory 39%, Labour 32%, LD 16%.
Political bias is social justice. Local Tory MP is a joke. Would vote labour or LD tactically.
Disappointed in all the main parties to be honest.
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Suburban Wales, Home owner, mid 60s
Voted Plaid Cymru last election, 2000 like me threw their vote away and the Tories got in. Labour voter next time (first time ever)
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www.thisvotecounts.co.uk/
Allows predictions down to constituency level.
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>> Allows predictions down to constituency level.
Interesting.
Post boundary changes we're in South Northamptonshire - incumbent and prospective Tory candidate Andrea Leadsom. I'd assumed it was nailed on safe but according to that it's 36% Tory 32% Labour...
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We've been pretty solid Cons under Redwood for years (Wokingham). This gives Cons and LibDem 30% each and Lab 25% so will likely be a close run three horse race!! We've had boundary changes which def impact, plus a slew of new housing which has brought a lot of new blood in and would probably tend to work against the Tories.
The council went LibDem from long-time Cons last time around. Imminent is a full council vote whereas last time it was only partial. I don't think a Lab win is likely here in local or national elections but I could be wrong!
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North Cornwall
Conservative
31%
Lib Dem
29%
Labour
22%
Reform
15%
Green
4%
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Voting predictor - Dog
