Motoring Discussion > No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Vol 3
Thread Author: VxFan Replies: 63

  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Vol 3 - VxFan
(ICE = Internal Combustion Engine)

Petrol and diesel car sales ban brought forward to 2035

www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51366123

I suspect the goalposts will move again though.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 5 Feb 20 at 10:35
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Lygonos
>> I suspect the goalposts will move again though.

Slowly getting towards the position where fully electric cars are comparable to ICE vehicles for price.

Skoda's Citigo starts at under 17 grand now with 170 mile range.

www.skoda.co.uk/new-cars/citigo-iv

I appreciate this includes 3500 govt grant but that'll disappear as sales increase.

0% BiK from April seems to be getting the fleet managers tumescent - two of my friends have Tesla Model 3s on order for company cars.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
This goal will shift, considerably and quite quickly when it becomes apparent that a: half the population has no ability to charge at home, and b: the power distribution infrastructure is not there, nor will it be to charge 40 million cars.

Electric cars are an interim, not a final goal. The goal should be "zero emission" and let the car makers decide how they achieve that.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 14:18
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - henry k
>> This goal will shift, considerably and quite quickly when it becomes apparent that
>>a: half the population has no ability to charge at home, and
>>b: the power distribution infrastructure is not there, nor will it be to charge 40 million cars.
>>
I totally agree.
Have the government run out of fag packets or the back of an envelope ?

Welcome to the land of Trump. If they say it enough times it will come to pass. :-(
We all know how well the smart meter roll out is going.
My next vehicle might well be electric but I will first need a ramp to my front door. :-)
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - No FM2R
>>Electric cars are an interim, not a final goal

The end point is probably no cars. At least in towns and cities. And certainly not at a rate of 2 per household, or whatever is the current figure.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 14:55
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - No FM2R
An interesting chart......

www.acea.be/statistics/tag/category/vehicles-per-capita-by-country
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Lygonos
8,000 miles/yr of driving = 6-7kWh per day per driver.

About the same as running a washer/dryer cycle for each car per day.

Isn't Boris all about infrastructure these days?
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> 8,000 miles/yr of driving = 6-7kWh per day per driver.
>>
>> About the same as running a washer/dryer cycle for each car per day.
>>
>> Isn't Boris all about infrastructure these days?

Thats an ADDITIONAL washer dryer to all the existing ones,. AND in a service station, probably ten of them in EVERY Station. Thats 8500 filling stations, 85,000 washer dryers, thats ?595,000KwH of additional infrastructure* I'll bet my pension its not going to be on stream and available in 15 years No way Jose

*generating, step up, transmission, step down, distribution,

Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 17:04
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> >>Electric cars are an interim, not a final goal
>>
>> The end point is probably no cars. At least in towns and cities. And certainly
>> not at a rate of 2 per household, or whatever is the current figure.

Equally "no car at all" transport infrastructure is not going to be here in 15 years, or 30 or 45!
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - CGNorwich
It may or may not be but if the climate change accelerates rapidly so will the political pressure for change.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
Climate change effects will be worse for others than us. I suppose the EU army could invade us if we poison the rest of europe,
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - CGNorwich
Let’s review that statement after the Great London Flood of 2029
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
Boris will have a new flood barrier in place by then, he understands infrastructure and climate change.

Plus he will have devolved power and influence to the (higher) regions by then
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 17:59
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Lygonos
The bulk of charging happens at night when demand is 20GW or so lower.

There's already demand levers available such as Octopus's Agile tariff : 25p/unit during the peak day down to even negative levels (you get paid to use leccy) in the early hours.

And refineries would also become power stations as they wouldn't be refining oil in the same volume.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> The bulk of charging happens at night when demand is 20GW or so lower.
>>
At the moment, not when EVERY car is electric. Its not about total power generation, its about distribution to new places

>> And refineries would also become power stations as they wouldn't be refining oil in the
>> same volume.

And the source of energy for these refineries power stations?

Its not going to be there in 15 years time.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 18:03
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - CGNorwich
I think you need to look at the speed of implementation of major projects in this country Look at CrossRail for example......

OK we’re all doomed.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - sooty123
I think it's one of those wishful thinking targets, I don't think things will change fast enough to make that sort of target. The infrastructure especially seems very slow and clunky to build up. I'm sure it'll come just not that fast.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> I think you need to look at the speed of implementation of major projects in
>> this country Look at CrossRail for example......
>>
>> OK we’re all doomed.

No problem We have improved, look at HS2, OH!
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Robin O'Reliant
By 2035 the planet will have an extra billion of us to support. We're going to be living in interesting times...
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> By 2035 the planet will have an extra billion of us to support. We're going
>> to be living in interesting times...

Not me, I'll be 80 and dead or gaga (or getting there anyway)
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 4 Feb 20 at 18:35
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Robin O'Reliant
>>
>>
>> Not me, I'll be 80 and dead or gaga (or getting there anyway)
>>

As will I, either a pile of cinders blowing about the Preseli hills or sitting in the corner of a nursing home dribbling down my cardi and thinking I'm a can of soup.

I feel those of our generation may well have enjoyed the best the human race has had to offer.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero

>> I feel those of our generation may well have enjoyed the best the human race
>> has had to offer.

The 60's were good, but i cant remember it
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - CGNorwich
The best days were when we humans were hunter gatherers. No work, no governments, just freedom to spend the day doing a bit of hunting and having a barbecue every night. Global warming was great news at the time. Then Ug Ug thought farming might be a good idea and after that it went downhill fast.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> The best days were when we humans were hunter gatherers.

The hunter gatherer period was not all it was cracked up to be, the hunted sometimes objected quite violently and was deadly. Waitrose is quite safe, and although Aldi gets a bit lairy sometimes, its not as bad as the bush.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - CGNorwich
Ah but hunting was good for 250,000 years. The Waitrose Aldi Era is struggling after 50 years.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - henry k
www.airport-technology.com/news/china-new-airports-2035/
Will LHR get a new runway by 2035
Boris will sort it.
Can we expect extension leads dangling from windows of flats and lamp posts used for cables to bridge pavements ?
When we start to see multi story car parks with charge points at each bay ?
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Crankcase

>> When we start to see multi story car parks with charge points at each bay
>> ?


You kinda can already actually. One of the Peterborough car parks, from memory of my EV days a year or three back, already had ten or twelve bays on the ground floor reserved for EVs only, astonishingly with free charging at that time.

It's all stood still or gone backwards since then as far as I can see.

I had a chat last week with someone local who still has an EV. I listed all the local charge points that were either broken, or were "coming in three months" five years ago. He knew them all, and not a single one of those has either been fixed or installed.

The ones that do work now cost real money to use. Given the EV is a poorer experience in terms of range and time, we should be being paid to use the darn things, not having them cost almost the same (sometimes more) than petrol.

As to on road EV charging, it'll be induction under the surface, won't it? Solves all that trailing cable primitiveness.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Lygonos
Been running an MG ZS EV for past 3000 miles.

New public chargers popping up monthly in Scotland and supermarkets are throwing them up at their bigger stores.

Works fine for me.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
you are part of a minority at the moment. Getting a charge will be like trying to get an appointment with you soon
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - legacylad
Reading the above its about time I finally bought a flat 6 or a proper V8
I flew home to colder climes late Saturday....lost of screaming at the back of the plane as it was an interesting landing at LBA. The guys in the pointy end earned their wage. Flew back to warmer climes sans 92yo 36 hours later
I’m off Greta’s Christmas card list
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Terry
One thing we do know - fossil fuels are a blind alley.

Limited by nature and geology they will become increasingly expensive as the "low hanging fruit" is pumped. They create local pollution and (possibly) climate change. The only question is when, not if, it will become uneconomic and/or implausible.

What we do know is that in the UK electricity is available at a building by building level throughout the UK - barns and stables possibly excluded! Other things we can be pretty sure of:

- city dwellers increasingly prefer Uber and rent by the hour/day. Far less hassle
- profit motive will drive installation of extra electricity capacity and distribution
- government tax and subsidy policies will encourage transition

Things that I expect:

- driverless vehicles which would use central charging locations (timing is only issue)
- some adoption of standard charging modules for fast change or exchange
- improved battery technology - more range, faster charge

Just remember that the EV of choice 15 years ago was the G-wizz - slow, low range, dangerous, horrible!. We now have numerous far better other EV options. Denial of the inevitable is just an exercise in stupidity!.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - No FM2R
>>- driverless vehicles which would use central charging locations (timing is only issue)

Excellent point. Hadn't even occurred to me.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - smokie
There was talk of being able to put charging points on street lamps. There's plenty of them.

Also all those charged-up electric cars sitting plugged in on driveways will assist the grid rather than be drawing from it. You'll get paid a modest amount for feed-in. That technology is here now, albeit a bit expensive (just like the cars...)

Just needs a bit of thinking outside the box really... and there's plenty of companies doing that.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero

>> Also all those charged-up electric cars sitting plugged in on driveways will assist the grid
>> rather than be drawing from it. You'll get paid a modest amount for feed-in.

Now how does that work? you take your empty car, plug it in at home, charge it, then empty it back into the grid and have a flat car the next morning?
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Lygonos
>>Now how does that work? you take your empty car, plug it in at home, charge it, then empty it back into the grid and have a flat car the next morning?

No, you have a partially charged car attached to the grid and tell the charger how full you want the car, and when.

As you know the grid has significant surplus capacity overnight so that's when net charging would occur.

During the day you may wish to allow the grid to take some juice back for the appropriate fee (or not even attach it if the price was too low).

  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> There was talk of being able to put charging points on street lamps. There's plenty
>> of them.

They will all need to be rewired, as they are cabled for about 500 watts max.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - smokie
But that isn't quite as significant a job as completely new infrastructure.

There's going to be plenty of stuff that ordinary man hasn't even thought of yet.

On other forums I come across some very smart people who are exploiting existing time-of-use tariffs in a very cunning way. And they are really just amateurs.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> But that isn't quite as significant a job as completely new infrastructure.

You think not? I'lll not be employing you as PM on that one
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - smokie
I wouldn't be applying if you were the manager :-)

  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Kevin
>They will all need to be rewired, as they are cabled for about 500 watts max.

The street lamps in most parts of urban Hampshire were replaced with 'more efficient' versions a few years ago. I have one at the bottom of my drive.
The cable to that lamp is 1.5mm SWA which is good for around 20A when buried, so 4.5kW. No idea what the upstream cabling is.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Duncan
>> Things that I expect:
>>
>> - driverless vehicles which would use central charging locations (timing is only issue)

I have been saying this for some time.

Give it a few years and we will have EVs that will drive themselves round the corner in the middle of the night, connect themselves to a wireless charging point and drive themselves back to park outside your tenement flat, when it's finished.

We have haven't seen the start of the technology, yet.

Anyway, never mind all that. What about population control?
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - No FM2R
The challenge is only partly coming up with better technology. The main part of the challenge is to drag the rest of the world upto where we already are.

We need to start looking at how all advanced countries can help, support and encourage the less advanced.

That idea should go down well with the average Farage type xenophobe.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero

>> Give it a few years and we will have EVs that will drive themselves round
>> the corner in the middle of the night, connect themselves to a wireless charging point
>> and drive themselves back to park outside your tenement flat, when it's finished.

Thats going to be interesting, 2000 driverless cars fighting over 50 charging points overnight. I'll be selling tickets.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Duncan
>> Thats going to be interesting, 2000 driverless cars fighting over 50 charging points overnight. I'll be selling tickets.
>>

It will be computer controlled.

You can't do original thinking.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> You can't do original thinking.


Even a computer controlled parking warden can't fit 2000 cars in 50 spaces.

Consider this, 25 years ago the computer in charge of your bank account never went down. These days it fails on a regular basis.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 5 Feb 20 at 10:31
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Manatee

>> Consider this, 25 years ago the computer in charge of your bank account never went
>> down. These days it fails on a regular basis.

I bet you could write a book about that. Has it ever worked properly since the old COBOL systems were replaced? Have they even finished that job yet?

When I started my mercifully short career with Nat West in late 1973, the deposit accounts still weren't computerised - interest was computed manually using tables, and written down in ledgers.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero

>> Anyway, never mind all that. What about population control?
>
Its coming, starting with the over 75's next year.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - sooty123
What replaces the revenue from petrol and diesel, what do we add the tax onto?
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Lygonos
VED equivalent.

£1000/yr should do it.

And also discourage unnecessary car ownership.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - smokie
Also motorway tolls, with all these new smart motorways.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
about the only thing that can be ready in 15 years is myriad ways to fleece you
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - legacylad
Lygonos I’m half way there. Currently £40.68 pcm
Battersea Dogs Home not impressed as they’ll receive less when I croak. As are all the other charities who are in line for 99% of my estate.
Last edited by: legacylad on Wed 5 Feb 20 at 09:21
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Boxsterboy
>> I appreciate this includes 3500 govt grant but that'll disappear as sales increase.
>>

This will be going sooner rather than later if reports are to be believed (but who knows when this government will do what they say they will do?). I think it wrong that the tax-payer should subsidise luxury car purchases in this way. In the same way, I think it wrong that aviation fuel is not taxed in some shape or form that gets round the fact that carriers could just refuel in adjacent tax-jurisdictions.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - No FM2R
>> I think it wrong that the tax-payer should....

Presumably you mean wrong that the Government should.....?

The term "taxpayer" seems to have become some kind of slogan to justify horror and / or outrage. It's sod all to do with the taxpayer.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Manatee
To me it is in the same category as the ludicrously tariffs paid to people generating solar power. In that case money was transferred from the poor (via higher bills) to the better off (home owners who could afford to fit the panels).

Now the poor pay higher VED on older cars while better off consumers and businesses benefit from the subsidies on EVs nd PHEVs
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Bromptonaut
>> To me it is in the same category as the ludicrously tariffs paid to people
>> generating solar power. In that case money was transferred from the poor (via higher bills)
>> to the better off (home owners who could afford to fit the panels).

That one really grinds my gears. I speak to people who've sat in cold/dark because the cannot afford to top up their key card. Yet they're paying more per unit then I am and a chunk of that supports this stuff.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero

>> The term "taxpayer" seems to have become some kind of slogan to justify horror and
>> / or outrage. It's sod all to do with the taxpayer.

Well its our money, but yeah we have no say in where it goes.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Terry
It's only a problem if you want it to be. An example:

1903 - Wright brothers first powered flight of 12 secs and 37m
1909 - six years on and Bleriot crossed the channel
1927 - another 18 years and Lindberg crossed the Atlantic
1947 - 20 years on and Chuck flew supersonic
1969 - 22 years later and supersonic passenger airraft - Concorde
1969 - man flew to and returned from the moon

Since then we seem to have gone backwards. But building between 10-20% additional generating capacity, and upgrading distribution where necessary over the next 15+ years really is (relatively) quite trivial if the ambition is there.

It you chose you could find even more rapid examples of "evolution" in IT, smartphones, data communication, pharmaceuticals, medical imagery etc.

Bear in mind that in 2035 a large part of the UK car fleet will still be ICE. It will be 2045 or later before they become a rare sight on UK roads.

15 years ago the G-Wizz was the EV of choice (not much else around). We now have choices from Nissan Leaf to Tesla. I don't remotely believe this is as good as EV technology will get in the next 15 years!
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Bromptonaut
>> 15 years ago the G-Wizz was the EV of choice (not much else around). We
>> now have choices from Nissan Leaf to Tesla.

I keep remembering that too.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>> >> 15 years ago the G-Wizz was the EV of choice (not much else around).
>> We
>> >> now have choices from Nissan Leaf to Tesla.
>>
>> I keep remembering that too.

Thats just the vehicles, piece of cake.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero

>> Since then we seem to have gone backwards. But building between 10-20% additional generating capacity,
>> and upgrading distribution where necessary over the next 15+ years really is (relatively) quite trivial
>> if the ambition is there.


Its actually not at all trivial, it is major infrastructure with all the inconvenicne that causes. Its not just building a couple more generating plants.
>> It you chose you could find even more rapid examples of "evolution" in IT, smartphones,
>> data communication, pharmaceuticals, medical imagery etc.

None of that is major national infrastructure. Mobile phone physical infrastructure is dead easy in comparison.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - No FM2R
>>Mobile phone physical infrastructure is dead easy in comparison.

My a*** it was.

Each 3G network required around 13,000 sites, I think in total there were about 44,000 - not all networks were equal and some sites were shared. Each of those sites had to be acquired, site designed, , planning permission obtained, a s***load of wayleaves obtained, site built, electric stuff installed and then supplied with backbone comms and electricity where electricity was often the biggest problem and then the continued burden of site and equipment maintenance.

More recent expansion and technology has only seemed easier to implement because not only are virtually all the sites already there, first site sharing and then network sharing has minimised the need for more.

Dead easy. Pah.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Zero
>
>> Dead easy. Pah.

In comparison.
  No ICE cars in the UK after 2035 - Duncan
Carwow video of a range test carried out on 6 electric cars. 28 minutes long.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZH7V2tU3iFc
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