It is too early to say with any certainty what happened. There are several plausible possibilities:
1. A nervous trigger finger in the Iranian military interpreting every radar signal as a threat
2. A deliberate act of sabotage/terrorism on the part of some-one
3. A retaliatory missile from a US base thinking that the plane was a threat
4. A deliberate act by Iran or Iraq seeking to implicate the US or ISIS.
I have no confidence in the honesty of politicians who may fabricate explanations to meet their own agendas in Iran, Iraq or US (Trump).
It needs an independent review by a relatively independent competent authority (France?) to look at the evidence from flight recorders, analysis of wreckage, and any other data (eg: radar imagery). We may then get a credible conclusion.
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