>> The lead author of the Imperial report into Corona Virus seems to have changed his
>> mind.
>>
>> Instead of the 510,000 deaths and ICUs totally overrun he's now predicting that "..intensive care
>> beds will get very close to capacity in some areas, but won’t be breached at
>> a national level.." and "UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000,
>> he said, and could be much lower."
If he's changed his mind on the basis of the changed strategy/assumptions that's only to be expected without any change to the basic forecasting methodology?
The 250,00-510,00 were predicated on letting it rip less or more.
20,000 was Vallance's target for the suppression approach which he came out with about 10 days ago.
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