>> then I think we're in
>> for waves of suppression (release followed by lockdown), flattening the sombrero repeatedly until the technology
>> moves on, or we achieve "herd immunity". Patently, within such waves, the level of lockdown
>> might be different, depending on the peak infection rate observed from this and other such
>> following lockdowns (it "simply" has to be at a level to achieve a manageable ICU
>> demand).
>>
>> I have a suspicion that the way forward is still going to involve a longer
>> lockdown of the older and more vulnerable, having achieved reasonable compliance to date.
I think it most likely we will get repeated cycles of on/off unless a gradual relaxation of measures (e.g. restart sector by sector or geographical area by area)can be managed. The most obvious distinction right now is London v. the rest of the nation. London needs extra suppression now but should correspondingly be first to return to normality, by degrees.
Still a lot of unknowns. If infection doesn't confer immunity, perhaps because of rapid mutation, and/or vaccines don't become available then all bets are off.
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