Well, I do think the survival of the euro is under some threat, and corona virus is amplifying the issues. The euro was a political figleaf to start with and only a loose grounding in economics. As we have seen the exchange rate initially set at the outset gave Germany an enormous economic advantage. The only country in Europe to consistently run a trade surplus. Without fiscal integration on a European scale, an ECB with teeth (something the Bundesbank would never countenance) and mutualisation of debt I cannot see it maturing into a stable currency.
We have seen how Greece had their pants pulled down a few years ago, and Italy is strongly resisting going down the same path. It is by no means inconceivable that ham fisted handling of this could lead to Italy leaving the EU. The Eurocrats have a track record of short sighted and poor performance. If they had given Cameron and indeed May something to work with then we would still be members.
Still, I like going there but sadly it doesn’t look like it will be this June. I will be cancelling my bookings shortly.
|