If there is no vaccine or game changing treatment and if the virus does not mutate, then consider the following;
- In the UK there have been 311,965 cases so far.
- At the peak, that was 5,000 new cases per day. And let us remember that at this peak the NHS was worried. It didn't break, but it was worried so it would take serious NHS expansion to cope with more than that..
- It's an average of 2,066 per day over the 151 days since the first case.
- It is estimated that infection may reach 70% before it runs out of steam
For 70% of the population to be infected at the peak rate it will take 26 years.
To do the same at the average rate will take 62 years.
Naturally of course the virus infection would escalate dramatically. But if it was allowed to do that, the NHS will break.
We often hear that there are many more unconfirmed cases. Then perhaps, actual total infections to date could be 10x the total currently confirmed.
Then at possible average rate of 20,000 per day, it will still take six years.
Even at 10x the peak rate, so 50,000 cases per day, that's till three years.
This isn't going away by Christmas.
|