It should be such an obvious thing to say, but the nature of contagion, incubation,the onset of symptoms, the seeking of treatment or testing, are such that we are always measuring the consequences of what has already happened up to a month earlier.
I think there was a lot more Covid around in January than most people imagine, and that the horse has already bolted on the spread of the new variant. The epidemiologists must at least suspect this.
At no time does any body ha e good data on what has happened in the previous two weeks and unless somebody makes some basically pessimistic assumptions instead of waiting for data we will not be in control of the spread. That is the real difference between most of Europe and eg S Korea.
Last edited by: Manatee on Tue 22 Dec 20 at 09:01
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