>> I'm not sure that's true, if it was a couple of weeks maybe but three
>> months.
>>
Do crude sums.
There are about 300 deaths per day.
Say
-the infection mortality is 0.3% - so 100,000 infections per day
- half are nCOVID - 50,000 infections per day
- nCOVID doubling rate - every 5 days - from the first infection to 50,000/day will take 80-85 days
at a 3 day doubling rate it will take 48-51 days
at 7 days about 16-17 weeks.
Add 1 month to the above for the time from infection to death. Maybe it was around in September and it doubles every 3-5 days in the absence of strong controls.
Point is it didn't appear last week if it's currently 60% of infections in the SE.
Overall, If 300 people a day are dying, and it takes a month to resolve (die or get better) then a month ago 100,000 people caught it and unless the infection rate has changed then around 3m. are currently infected. That's about 5%. The proportion of those that are nCOVID will rise rapidly over the next month and the relative death rates will be clearly evident then if not before.
Choose your own assumptions.
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