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Ongoing debate.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 30 Dec 20 at 03:04
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Oh ffs.
"A number of European countries have or are considering banning travel from the UK to prevent the spread of a more infectious variant of coronavirus. "
www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55385768
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 20 Dec 20 at 13:01
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I can't find a link, but wasn't there an outbreak of a variant in Denmark in Mink that was very contagious.
TBH, our lock down has been so leaky here it's ridiculous, with flights from all over the world still arriving.
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According to midday BBC headline news, Hancock admits the virus is out of control.
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Hasn’t it always been? Avoiding it is not really controlling it.
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I think when asked if it was under control, he said, no sadly.
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>>Can you cite an example of where a State allows its agencies full access to credit card,
>>mobile phone and bank account etc.?
FWIW the most widely quoted example of assisting coronavirus-tracing this way is S. Korea
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52681464
As to the rest of your tirade, thank you for the helpful insight into your character.
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Something worked for the S Koreans early days ( - that article is May ) but it must have broken recently.
tinyurl.com/y7wpxvst
Last edited by: smokie on Sun 20 Dec 20 at 17:08
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That's what you've got? South Korea?
But you said "numerous" not "somewhere in the world there is one".
I truly cannot imagine why previous places have tired of you.
As for the insight into my character, you are quite correct, it is. Shallow, two-faced, headline promoting t***s with no substance get right up my nose. And I certainly am not very good at huffing my. Total lack of regard or respect for such people
I thought about being impressed that you'd worked that out, but then I figured that with the amount of practice you've probably had it's not much of a challenge even for you.
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>> FWIW the most widely quoted example of assisting coronavirus-tracing this way is S. Korea
>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52681464
FWIW South Korea is one the examples I mentioned about being one of the few places it would work.
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It won't be under control either till it's gone, we're all vaccinated or there is an effective treatment.
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Track and trace only works well with a small number of cases.
During the summer the UK had ~ 700 cases per day. We now have ~ 20000 cases per day. In summer T&T staff were sitting around doing very little, they are now completely overwhelmed.
Some fault lies in a failure to make best use of local facilites when cases were low, and delays in implementing the second lockdown. But a national T&T infrstructure is needed to cope with huge regional and total variations in the volume of cases.
Cultural differences play a major part in the way infection is controlled. Compare the UK with (say) S.Korea who have limited the spread. Their T&T not only uses phone data, but also correlates this with credit card data and CCTV. Culturally they are far more inclined to behave with regard for society.
S.Korea also had the capacity from the outset to test those identified by T&T, and are far more likely to police adherence to the rules than the "by consent" approach of the UK.
Concerns for privacy and the rights of an individual over the needs of society in the UK mean the UK will never achieve Korean levels of infection control.
The UK public need to accept they are in large part responsible responsible for T&T failures. They clearly prioritise privacy and personal rights above the economic impacts and deaths associated with failing to manage the pandemic less well than was possible.
Blaming the government is simply a cop out - they have been far from perfect, but the public by their actions (as a group) need to accept their share of responsibility for the outcomes.
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Re S Korea and at risk of repeating myself :-)
tinyurl.com/y7wpxvst
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>> Oh ffs.
>>
>> "A number of European countries have or are considering banning travel from the UK to
>> prevent the spread of a more infectious variant of coronavirus. "
>>
>> www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-55385768
>>
I ruddy well knew I shouldn’t have flown home today.
My pals have the right idea...they’ve decided to remain in Spain, minus the rain, until next April.
Apparently, if you arrived in an EU country pre 31/12/20, your EHIC remains valid until you depart from an EU state ...hence why several friends are staying put.
I’m not sure if that is categorically true...cba investigating that as I had to fly home.
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Bit worrying that NERVTAG minutes say that
"The location of the mutations in the receptor binding domain of
the spike glycoprotein raises the possibility that this variant is antigenically distinct
from prior variants. Four probable reinfections have been identified amongst 915
subjects with this variant but further work is needed to compare this reinfection rate
with comparable data sets."
and
"It was noted that VUI-202012/01 has demonstrated exponential growth during a period
when national lockdown measures were in place. "
and
"In summary, NERVTAG has moderate confidence that VUI-202012/01 demonstrates a substantial increase in transmissibility compared to other variants."
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Probably worth bearing in mind that an increase in transmissibility is not necessarily a bad thing.
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Covid: France and Germany among nations banning flights from UK www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55385768
France on the list now. Tunnel closed?
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>> Probably worth bearing in mind that an increase in transmissibility is not necessarily a bad
>> thing.
Why? Bearing in mind we're both not young, spring chickens and probably more prone to the virus.
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Conceivably it could spread much more quickly amongst those who are out and making merry, thus shortening the time that the rest of us need to hide away.
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You mean some sort of heard immunity?
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Turbocharging herd immunity at the expense of overwhelming the NHS. It will be nasty but over quickly!
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As long as the youngsters keep away from the oldsters, and infection does confer significant immunity, NoFM2R has a good point.
If they don't, or it doesn't....
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>>and infection does confer significant immunity,
If confers something. It may not be long term (but it might be), it may not be 100% (it isn't), but it is something.
As the more susceptible gradually succumb and the treatment methods improve, the virus will become increasingly less fatal to those who become infected.
If 80% of people who have had it can't catch it again for 6 months (and both are reasonably safe guesses) then the NHS will be safe from being overwhelmed after the first pass through 60% of the population..
Then it becomes the responsibility for each person to keep themselves safe, with hopefully some, but no doubt limited, attempt to keep those around them safe.
I don't need anybody to stay away from me, I stay away from them. Greater good and all that.
For goodness sakes return spectators to football games now. It'll be quick, it'll be ugly, but since the intelligent and smart will stay away we're not likely to lose too many that we need or want.
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There is no indication that it is more dangerous at the moment, just that it is more virulent.
The danger is that people who were able to effectively isolate with the original, may be susceptible to the new strain and become ill, when they wouldn't have become ill before. The consequences of becoming ill may be terrible, or not, depending on the person. The issue being is that many don't want risk it.
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That's an amusing prospect for about a minute but I think the country might break. Many of them may be in my extended "key worker" category - maybe not front line medics but shop workers, transport, trades, energy, small business people. The health service may fail under the strain. The economy might be crippled. It could be becoming more like one of those disaster movies.
The scenes in today's press showing people "fleeing" from London were a bit reminiscent of something I've seen in the past. (And of course maybe taking it with them).
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Zippy they are suggesting re-infection may be more likely, with 4 cases having been seen. I'd say that makes it more dangerous.
I'm sure we aren't seeing all the detail either.
Here are the minutes in case you're interested.
khub.net/documents/135939561/338928724/SARS-CoV-2+variant+under+investigation%2C+meeting+minutes.pdf/962e866b-161f-2fd5-1030-32b6ab467896?t=1608470511452
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>> they are suggesting re-infection may be more likely, with 4 cases having been seen. I'd say that makes it more dangerous
You worry too much. And certainly too soon. Really.
4 cases out of how many? So even if true the chance of reinfection is what %?
I can state with absolute certainty that I may win the lottery. And it'll be even more likely if I buy two tickets. But let's not bother planning for it.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Sun 20 Dec 20 at 20:13
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>>The economy might be crippled.
The economy would not be crippled with the loss of 1 million older and vulnerable people. Not even 2 million. Or 3.
It will be crippled and is being crippled by ongoing closure.
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>>The economy would not be crippled with the loss of 1 million older and vulnerable people. Not
>>even 2 million. Or 3.
If say 30% of 3m had houses to sell then 900,000 homes on the market would collapse house prices. That would impact the economy because a huge number of SME businesses are supported by guarantees where the net worth of the proprietor is a major consideration.
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Unfortunately I think I know the answer to this....
We are in a childcare bubble with my our daughter and will be looking after our GD for two of the next four days while daughter works in theatres at her local trust.
I think ALL meetings are band in tier 4 on Friday.
Is that still true for our childcare bubble?
Seems utter craziness that we can still meet up providing support right up until Friday and then it's band (we will be back doing care duties on the days between the BH's).
Royal 'we' = my wife.
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>> Is that still true for our childcare bubble?
www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home#childcare
Looks as if informal childcare bubbles are still OK:
parents are able to form a childcare bubble with one other household for the purposes of informal childcare, where the child is 13 or under
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Thanks but obviously we are interested in Christmas Day, our daughter won't be at work, so can we still have lunch together?
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I'm no expert. According to the govt website the the current arrangements can continue:
www.gov.uk/guidance/tier-4-stay-at-home
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And that's the rub.... maybe you can, but should you though...?
I don't think I worry too much, but I have just said that we're going to hunker down, be even more careful and watch what happens for a bit. We weren't doing much anyway but I was going to do Lidl before Christmas, which won't now happen. We have enough food to feed a small army anyway, especially now Birmingham daughter won't be here.
I think the pretty much the rest of Europe is barring us for the time being and that makes me think they know and/or understand stuff we don't.
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>> I think the pretty much the rest of Europe is barring us for the time
>> being and that makes me think they know and/or understand stuff we don't.
Nope - they are reacting to our actions because of the stuff we know
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Also our issue is that daughter has absolutely nothing planned or bought for Christmas Day lunch... nothing.
Our current contact risk will be no different from Thursday to Friday.
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>> Also our issue is that daughter has absolutely nothing planned or bought for Christmas Day
>> lunch... nothing.
>>
>> Our current contact risk will be no different from Thursday to Friday.
>>
I feel for you. We're T4. Plans are in turmoil. We are lucky that we got stuff in, though I wish I had another freezer!
SIL is isolating though and her lad was due to travel abroad to spend Christmas with his GF's family and now GF and lad can't go home.
Her other lad and GF were going to spend Xmas with SIL and now can't and he is self isolating too.
We still should be able to see MIL as she is single.
Miss Zippy is on duty tomorrow. She has been told not to go to her ward but will be on call for the week and to prepare for the worst / expect to be fire-fighting. The hospital has no spare beds.
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My Trust is actually doing quite well for a hospital in SE London, so much so that we are now taking a large number of transfers from NW London where they are over run with sick patients needing high flow oxygen.
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One thing in the mass of statistics that I've not seen much on, is where are people spreading the virus from person to person?
In their homes, hospitals, shops?
I know in lots of cases it won't be possible to know exactly, however there must be some sort of proper studies carried out?
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That the death of a million+ retirees will have no impact on the economy is questionable.
They have the greatest discretionary spending power, having paid off mortgages, seen kids grow up, and are able to monetise their property to increase retirement income. They also (incidentally) are the engine for employment in the NHS and care services.
However the option to allow the virus to spread uncontrollably to achieve herd immunity should be evaluated.
1st question - how long will it take. ~ 0.5m people are infected with covid now, The NHS is creaking. Assume everything reopens and infections quickly increase to (say) 3m. Herd immunity may need infection of 65-80%, ~50m people, ~12-15 weeks.
2nd question - what happpens to the NHS. It will be utterly overwhelmed by a factor of 5-8 times. All health care will stall. Relatively minor injuries may be fatal. Those needing treatment for any reason will die for want of basic drugs and care. An explicit policy of euthanasia may be more humane than the suffering that will otherwise happen.
3rd question - vaccine. Assuming the Astra Zeneca vaccine gets approval there is some prospect that within ~2 months the elderly and vulnerable will become an an ever smaller burden on the NHS with more normal society being resumed.
4th question - is let it rip feasible. It is, but when people see the impact on NHS facilities it may radically change behaviours to avoid social contact anyway. The benefit to the economy may simply prove illusory. Rather than resolving covid quickly, 12-15 weeks could extend to 6-12 months.
Ignoring moral arguments - I am something of a pragmatist anyway, I can understand why many think "let it rip" is a quick solution. With the vaccine on the horizon it is entirely the wrong choice.
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@Zero - I meant there is more detail than us peasants know or understand, that they've (they being the country leaders and/or scientists) been made privy to, or have been able to infer. But either way, same difference really.
We're being isolated.
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 21 Dec 20 at 00:07
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>>
>> We're being isolated.
>>
Which is something we should have been doing to the rest of the world since March!
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Unless like me, and a lot of my friends, you decide it’s far better for your health to spend several months in Spain.
If you are fortunate enough to be fit and active, a Spanish outdoor lifestyle mixing within your own social bubble, avoiding busy indoor places, is definitely the way to go to get on with your life as normally as possible.
Yesterday’s return flight to the U.K. had more than it’s fair share of Spanish passengers...really quite unusual...and a Spanish flight crew.
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>> Unless like me, and a lot of my friends, you decide it’s far better for
>> your health to spend several months in Spain.
>> If you are fortunate enough to be fit and active,
Don't forget retired.
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Quite. State pension aged 66 in a few months. Money for nothing. Shame Ryanair don’t do Business Class. Last Friday, yesterday’s one way ALC-LBA flight was advertised at €5. Now that’s what I call cheap...I’d still rather not have been on it though.
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Wasn't having a go BTW, just a bit tricky if you've still got kids at school etc. How was the journey back from the airport, did you get all sorted?
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sooty...a pal picked me up thankyou. Arrived home in Settle just in time for fish, chips & mushy peas. And a pot of tea.
Shame my heating isn’t working...I’ve got hot water so it isn’t a boiler issue. I’ve emergency oil filled portable rads, and a multi fuel stove. And Flahavans porridge.
My pal flew home two weeks ago....14 day’s quarantine, and I’m taking him back to the airport 15 January. Always assuming.....I may end up driving out to Spain late January, although I’ve a flight booked on the 22nd.
Miserable depressing weather here in t’Dales, but we should all be grateful for small mercies. Millions are far worse off.
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.I may end up driving out to Spain late January,
>> although I’ve a flight booked on the 22nd.
Very nice, same place?
>> Miserable depressing weather here in t’Dales, but we should all be grateful for small mercies.
>> Millions are far worse off.
>>
Same here, chucking it down.
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Yes. Moraira again on the northern Costa Blanca. Admittedly a low rise tourist orientated town on the coast, but it has a lovely friendly vibe to it.
I’m using the same family owned sales and letting company, Ferrandos, who own their rental properties and don’t act as agents. A very professional and reliable service. Any problems, it’s sorted that day.
Different rental property this time...villa Marian...great long distance views, nice sunsets behind the Bernia mountain ( I scrambled to the western summit a few weeks ago) and a short walk into town along the coast.
Deals to be had at the moment.
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>> quite unusual...and a Spanish flight crew.
Ryanair normally have aircraft based at LBA but even pre-pandemic they'd reduced the number from 3 down to 2 or even 1. Remaining flights are operated from the 'foreign' end with some of the Polish destinations served by SP (ie Polish) registered machines.
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I can't believe I'm the only bloke in the country who isn't entirely disappointed that he won't have to spend three days incarcerated with his wife's family over Christmas this year.
;-)
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>> he won't have to spend three days incarcerated with his wife's family over Christmas this
>> year.
I think the word you seek is spelt incinerated.
Last edited by: Duncan on Mon 21 Dec 20 at 09:32
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Runfer...if you’re referring to me I don’t have a wife, although I’ve got the t shirt ( and a half).
I do have Spanish lemons, Schweppes in the fridge, and some Duty Free gin bought yesterday.
I think it’s dark here late afternoon, the stove will be lit, so a good time to open the bottle...very unusual as I rarely drink at home. Needs must.
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"Shortest" day today isn't it? Or about now anyway.
Suppose that means you're supposed to drink shorts eh?
Last edited by: Runfer D'Hills on Mon 21 Dec 20 at 10:07
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And not wear them. Unlike the past several weeks.
Did you google GDMBR ?
Last edited by: legacylad on Mon 21 Dec 20 at 10:23
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Not yet, but thanks for the reminder, will do.
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Right, well, just have googled it LL.
You are a very bad influence...
;-)
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As earlier, my retired mountain biking pal has pencilled it in for 2022. Closer to home he recommends mountain biking the approximate route of the GR5 ( which I’ve walked a few times from St Gingolph to Nice, plus sections N of Lac Leman in both the Vosges & Jura).
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>> "Shortest" day today isn't it? Or about now anyway.
Indeed it is.
'Climbs on hobby horse'.
However, the mornings will continue to get darker until the 30th IIRC.
Whilst, the evenings have been getting lighter for a few days now.
www.timeanddate.com/sun/uk/london
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>> "Shortest" day today isn't it? Or about now anyway.
>>
>>
No, today is the same length as most other days, 24 hours. The shortest day was the 25th October which was only 23 hours and the longest was 29th march, 25 hours.
As you were.
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Sunset time started to creep back last week, latest sunrise is a week or so off but overall the daylight gets longer from today onwards. Amazing how almost as soon as the sunrise moves just a minute or two earlier the birds are singing in the morning.
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Conjugation of Saturn and Jupiter in the Western sky this afternoon just after sunset. Been watching the two planets get closer and closer tother over the last week Shame its overcast and raining. Will have to catch it next time round. 800 years I think
Last edited by: CGNorwich on Mon 21 Dec 20 at 15:14
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Conjugation - I mean conjunction!
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>> Conjugation of Saturn and Jupiter in the Western sky this afternoon just after sunset. Been
>> watching the two planets get closer and closer tother over the last week Shame its
>> overcast and raining. Will have to catch it next time round. 800 years I think
Spooky! Will the combined gravitational pull of the two planets, coinciding with the solstice pull the earth out of the Sun's orbit?
Let's face it, this year can't get much worse. Time for my tinfoil hat.
Just heard, the UK's now a social pariah with 40 other countries!
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>Amazing how almost as soon as the sunrise moves just a minute or two earlier
>the birds are singing in the morning.
We hadn't seen 'our' blackbird for months until last week. Him and his Mrs now won't stop looking through our windows and begging for food. At this moment he's eating the berries off the pyracantha next to the laundry door and staring through the window.
Last edited by: Kevin on Mon 21 Dec 20 at 15:44
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>> Sunset time started to creep back last week, latest sunrise is a week or so
>> off but overall the daylight gets longer from today onwards. Amazing how almost as soon
>> as the sunrise moves just a minute or two earlier the birds are singing in
>> the morning.
>>
Quote from 'Sunrise and sunset' website
December Solstice (Winter Solstice) is on Monday, 21 December 2020, 10:02 in London. In terms of daylight, this day is 8 hours, 49 minutes shorter than on June Solstice. In most locations north of Equator, the shortest day of the year is around this date.
Earliest sunset is on 12 December. Latest sunrise is on 30 December.
End quote
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>> Runfer...if you’re referring to me I don’t have a wife, although I’ve got the t
>> shirt ( and a half).
>> I do have Spanish lemons, Schweppes in the fridge, and some Duty Free gin bought
>> yesterday.
I bet its that Larios sheet.
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Haha. Si senor. The citrus variety this time. I couldn’t remember your previous recommendation...I should list it under G in my phone.
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amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/12/20/americas/chile-president-fine-intl-scli/index.html
The dipstick agreed to have a selfie taken by some woman as he was walking along the beach.
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I saw that, made the BBC a couple of days ago.
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Walking on a beech must be one of the safest places for fresh air.
What difference a mask makes beats me.
Have we all lost the plot a bit or is it just a bad movie.Don't want to offend anybody before being called.Just a different outlook what is going on.
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Masks are really only necessary when you are in close proximity to others.
When I was in Portugal earlier this year the rule became that if you weren't able to maintain a safe distance you should wear a mask, inside or outdoors. There were some boardwalk walks along the back of the beach and the side of the dunes which were pretty busy so we wore a mask, as did nearly all others. On open areas we didn't. Simple common sense really.
If you think you might not be able to keep a safe distance then a mask should be worn. With all your bits inside (like your nose).
Last edited by: smokie on Mon 21 Dec 20 at 15:19
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I can't get a mask long enough to cover my face and my 'bits' at the same time. Will a mask and an apron do?
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>> I can't get a mask long enough to cover my face and my 'bits' at
>> the same time.
>>
...A kick in the b*lls would probably close the distance somewhat.....
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>...A kick in the b*lls would probably close the distance somewhat.....
OK, OK!
May the elves of misfortune have fun with your 3-way valve on Christmas Eve.
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>>What difference a mask makes beats me.
It's the law, he is the President, his crowd made that law.
Whether or not it makes a difference is not relevant. However, if one is close enough to someone to breath or sneeze on them, like when posing for a close up photograph, then that is exactly when wearing a mask makes a difference.
As for losing the plot I think a combination of ridiculous behaviour by the Government and unbelievably t***tish behaviour by much of the population then yes, the country as a whole has lost the plot.
>>Just a different outlook what is going on
Yes. Fundamentally wrong.
Last edited by: No FM2R on Mon 21 Dec 20 at 15:22
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Nut jobs. And I’m being polite.
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I think that, as with football matches, it is to be encouraged. I can think of no greater act for their country than making sure they all get it as quickly as possible. And if they die,, meh, at least we know they weren't smart.
I'm fairly sure a disproportionate amount of thick people will have caught COVID-19 and then one assumes therefore that a disproportionate amount of fatalities were thick people.
I think it is reasonable to assume that a disproportionate amount of the "it's all a conspiracy and a hoax" people also exposed themselves, thus caught it and thus some died.
Finally I think it also reasonable to assume that far less of the prudent, intelligent people caught caught the virus.
All in all that gives me hope and optimism insofar as the average IQ of the country is concerned.
Further, I think the surviving thick and conspiracy-believing people have irrevocably revealed themselves making it far easier for the rest of us to avoid them and significantly improve our lives.
All in all, not seeing a problem with stupid people going to events.
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>> I think that, as with football matches, it is to be encouraged. I can think
>> of no greater act for their country than making sure they all get it as
>> quickly as possible. And if they die,, meh, at least we know they weren't smart.
>>
I'm assuming that's wishful thinking, for the vast majority it's either nothing or a mild illness.
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>>I'm assuming that's wishful thinking, for the vast majority it's either nothing or a mild illness.
Well yes, that's true.
But whatever the impact is, however small it is, surely it's hitting the stupid harder?
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I wouldn't say so, lots are likely to be young (from what I've seen) so almost no impact. It's the elderly that end up in hospital (the vast majority of cases)
I see what you're digging at, but I doubt it works that way.
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 22 Dec 20 at 10:49
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Didn't I read somewhere at the end of last week that the new strain is hitting the young more?
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Possibly but only because they are more likely to hang around with each other without distancing. There's no more severe symptoms with this strain or any of the others.
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All wishful thinking. The majority of the non-compliance will be in the less affected age groups. Any consequential deaths, and there will be no way of knowing exactly which ones they are, will almost certainly be from the more vulnerable and more compliant older age groups.
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>> Nut jobs.
Miss Z got home and dived right in to the shower.
She reports...
All 500+ beds are used. 175+ Covid patients from fewer than 5 a couple of weeks ago.
They are already running short of PPE and one of the cleaning solutions they use to scrub up has run out.
They are not allowed to wear full PPE if not undertaking procedures that generate aerosol droplets.
The atmosphere at the hospital is very stressed with Miss Z saying that even the consultants look more worried then they were first time around.
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What are the other 325 beds being used for? I hope none of it is elective.
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>> What are the other 325 beds being used for? I hope none of it is
>> elective.
>>
There has been no elective surgery for at least the last week.
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Probably people recovering from previous elective surgery or those admitted as an emergency.
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People recovering from previous surgeries, emergencies, flu (bad), pneumonia, heart attacks, general illness (one example mentioned today was a haemothorax missed by the new F1s in A&E).
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1/3rd of the beds being used for COVID-19 doesn't seem all that high to me. And since the majority of surgery is elective, I assume that can only improve.
Over how big a catchment area did this extra 170 cases occur?
Seems like someone somewhere in th system might have over committed in the lull.
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>> Over how big a catchment area did this extra 170 cases occur?
About 100,000, it's difficult to be exact as there are 3 hospitals in the trust of which 2 are major (full service). The two major hospitals are 20 miles apart with a population of about 250k.
The hospital is only taking the very worst cases. I did mention the other day that some patents were so bad that a specialist team from London had to come down with their own equipment to perform some major procedures on some young patients.
>>
>> Seems like someone somewhere in th system might have over committed in the lull.
>>
Cancer and other ill patients can only wait so long for life saving surgery.
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>>Cancer and other ill patients can only wait so long for life saving surgery.
Indeed, But they are in the minority.
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>> >>Cancer and other ill patients can only wait so long for life saving surgery.
>>
>> Indeed, But they are in the minority.
Waves hand and jumps up and down, "Hellooo Minority here"
To be fair however, since the covid thing kicked in I have had 13 visits to hospital, and all have been on time to schedule. I know I am lucky, my area has not, till now, been overwhelmed by covid cases, and I have been seen in private hospitals and clinics where the hospital service has been stretched. Again I'm lucky being in an affluent area there is plenty of that resource available around here.
I am going to need to be seen/treated 6 times in January/Feb next year, and at least 3 times between Feb and May. Stuff happening as planned and on time is the only thing that's keeping my mental health in one piece. Am I worried Covid will disrupt that? you bet your panties.
Over 360,000 people get a cancer diagnosis, (OK I was greedy and went for two) in a normal year, so that's 360,000 people needing the same reassurance as me. In 2020/21 I'll wager half of them haven't been so lucky as myself. In fact its likely 25% haven't got as far as getting a diagnosis, and by the time they do in late '21 it will be too late.
The knock on effects of medical resource being swallowed up by Covid is significant.
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The knock on effects of medical resource being swallowed up by Covid is significant.
>>
>>
I saw a report from some top cancer doc, scary number of people who couldn't get into hospital for even the first round of diagnosis of cancer. Massive backlog, god knows how it'll ever get reduced.
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>> The knock on effects of medical resource being swallowed up by Covid is significant.
>>
>> I saw a report from some top cancer doc, scary number of people who couldn't
>> get into hospital for even the first round of diagnosis of cancer. Massive backlog, god
>> knows how it'll ever get reduced.
>>
It is awful.
Our God-Daughter, 35, married, young family. Absolutely lovely person.
She was supposed to have surgery / radiotherapy in London which was all cancelled in the summer. Now it's too late.
We are hoping she survives Christmas.
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>> >>Cancer and other ill patients can only wait so long for life saving surgery.
>>
>> Indeed, But they are in the minority.
>>
I reckon more beds than you’d expect are taken up by inpatients who haven’t had recent surgery but do have complex or chronic health issues. Take a hospital I know reasonably well, the QA in Portsmouth. It has roughly 1,200 beds at its main site. The inpatient wards I’ve been to include renal, liver, cardiac, stroke and gastro. At between 40 and 60 beds a department that’s a quarter of the capacity accounted for. Then there are the cancer, haematology/oncology and goodness knows how many other departments that also have inpatient service is for managing long term illnesses. And of course what now seems to be called Older People’s medicine. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if over half a hospitals beds weren’t occupied by patients who either hadn’t had recent, or perhaps any, surgery. Add on to that the emergency stuff from accidents with breaks and fractures, and the more complex internal injuries stuff and you’re probably left with a third of the capacity for elective surgery. Cancel all elective surgery and you probably still can’t have more than 40% of your beds available for covid and emergencies.
But hospitals are like airlines...they’re designed to be operated at pretty high capacity. And while access to beds isn’t controlled by price, the bar you need to reach to get a bed is raised or lowered depending on circumstances. I can’t remember a winter when the NHS hasn’t been under pressure from a capacity perspective. But this year there’s also the challenge of lower staff numbers as so many are isolating.
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According to "The UK's chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance" and reported byt he BBC.
There is now a high degree of confidence [the new strain] is leading to faster transmission - although there is no evidence it causes more serious illness or would disrupt the effectiveness of the vaccine.
Combine this with pagan gatherings and football matches and it can only cut down on the amount of time the smart people need to be isolated.
If the mindless minions could get on with some serious mixing over the next few weeks, then us Smartees could emerge blinking into a bright new world sometime towards the end of January. I can pass that long in a gin-induced stupor, no problem.
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Piers Corbyn has been quiet of late, I wonder if he's got it?
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Hey Trump got it and lived, your wishful thinking is likely unfulfilled.
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Thought you lived in Chile?
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Infection rate increases.
I'm still trying to figure out what's going on with the infection rates.
My local borough went from one of the lowest in the country - and noted as such on the local and national news to one of the highest within a month.
We were lowest because the area is supposed to be poor with poor transport links so not a lot of people coming here.
Now we are high, because we are poor with poor housing and facilities.
The infection rate is about 1% of the population which is about 1,000. In November it was single figures.
It may be down to the new virulent strain. Anecdotal reports from the local hospital is that a lot more younger people have been hospitalised this time around.
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It's a strange one, are a lot of the people in your area suddenly acting differently? Or are things being reported differently or something else?
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>> It's a strange one, are a lot of the people in your area suddenly acting
>> differently? Or are things being reported differently or something else?
>>
Despite being a town the catchment areas for the hospitals and secondary schools are huge and extend in to the neighbouring countryside and county where rates have been increasing dramatically and were T3.
Some of the first reports were infections at the local secondary schools (or academies as they are now called).
It's just a guess, but I wonder if a student on the border of one of the high infection areas had a parent that worked in a high infection area and the rest is just a cascade.
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It is hard not to come to the conclusion that a lot of the spread has been down to schools, though I have nothing concrete to back that up, just a few bits of anecdotal evidence.
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>>Thought you lived in Chile?
I do, as you very well know. What point are you trying to make?
Last edited by: No FM2R on Tue 22 Dec 20 at 02:56
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I understand there is a growing suspicion that the new variant may already be far spread and has only been detected in the UK so quickly because of the effort being put into genomic surveillance.
It has now been found in Australia, Denmark, The Netherlands and Italy.
www.gov.uk/government/news/122-million-boost-for-genomic-surveillance-to-help-stop-transmission-of-covid-19
But it keeps being repeated, except in the drama loving UK press, that the transmission rate seems to have been impacted, but the severity and/or fatality rates have not been. There is *NO* indication that it is more severe.
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Doesn't really matter if it is no more lethal if enough people are infected.
As I've said before if you need an ICU bed and one isn't available, you die.
Increasing suspicion this variant can infect, and make infectious, younger children.
Significant chance that schools will become virtual again in January if this turns out to be true.
To accommodate the planned 3 week tier 4 'lockdown' after Boxing Day, the first week of return in Scotland will be only teachers in schools (plus children of essential staff if required) with online learning - I suspect this will make it easier to extend the virtual schooling thereafter if necessary.
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>>Doesn't really matter if it is no more lethal if enough people are infected.
Certainly does. If it was more lethal, then we're screwed. If it's not, and is being caught by younger, less vulnerable people, then that is quite a different matter.
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You could get a few more deaths if it spreads a bit more before the damper of the vaccine kicks in. But the real nasty would be higher mortality at the same time.
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>> >>Doesn't really matter if it is no more lethal if enough people are infected.
>>
>> Certainly does. If it was more lethal, then we're screwed. If it's not, and is
>> being caught by younger, less vulnerable people, then that is quite a different matter.
If its making the youngsters more infectious then more of their parents and grandparents are going to get it. So its just the same matter, as the full hospital wards here would tell you.
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>>its just the same matter
No, it's not.
Higher rate of infection AND higher fatality rates would be very bad.
Higher rate of infection and NOT higher fatality rates would be lots less bad.
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>> But it keeps being repeated, except in the drama loving UK press, that the transmission
>> rate seems to have been impacted, but the severity and/or fatality rates have not been.
>> There is *NO* indication that it is more severe.
Plenty being said in the UK press saying its not more lethal. Plenty in the UK press saying its more infectious. And in so being it will be more lethal. How so.
Lets say god forbid one of your your aged parents has a serious fall requiring hospital admission. Currently and in the immediate future, the chances of them dying has increased due to stretched medical and care resources,
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>>
>> Plenty being said in the UK press saying its not more lethal. Plenty in the
>> UK press saying its more infectious. And in so being it will be more lethal.
>> How so.
>>
The first point is the belief that infection of one person with the new strain is no more likely than the previous strain to result in their serious illness or death. The second belief is that if the new strain spreads infection faster and more easily then more people overall will suffer serious illness or death. I say belief because in interviews most scientists emphasize that at this moment neither hypothesis is proven.
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>> easily then more people overall will suffer serious illness or death. I say belief because
>> in interviews most scientists emphasize that at this moment neither hypothesis is proven.
>>
Your scientist does anyway. I suppose only Bill gates knowns really.
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It should be such an obvious thing to say, but the nature of contagion, incubation,the onset of symptoms, the seeking of treatment or testing, are such that we are always measuring the consequences of what has already happened up to a month earlier.
I think there was a lot more Covid around in January than most people imagine, and that the horse has already bolted on the spread of the new variant. The epidemiologists must at least suspect this.
At no time does any body ha e good data on what has happened in the previous two weeks and unless somebody makes some basically pessimistic assumptions instead of waiting for data we will not be in control of the spread. That is the real difference between most of Europe and eg S Korea.
Last edited by: Manatee on Tue 22 Dec 20 at 09:01
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I've read reports that suggest that this strain has been around since Sept and that it's easier to spread. If that's the case why's it taken this long to spread across the country? I don't see how both can be true, unless I'm missing something.
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Two minds with a single thought. See above. It has already spread but because the data haven't caught up the politicians are hoping it's not true.
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I'm not sure that's true, if it was a couple of weeks maybe but three months.
Last edited by: sooty123 on Tue 22 Dec 20 at 09:07
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Isn't that just the shape of an exponential curve?
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I would have expected it to spread faster than is being suggested if its ability to spread is as great as is being suggested.
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>> I'm not sure that's true, if it was a couple of weeks maybe but three
>> months.
>>
Do crude sums.
There are about 300 deaths per day.
Say
-the infection mortality is 0.3% - so 100,000 infections per day
- half are nCOVID - 50,000 infections per day
- nCOVID doubling rate - every 5 days - from the first infection to 50,000/day will take 80-85 days
at a 3 day doubling rate it will take 48-51 days
at 7 days about 16-17 weeks.
Add 1 month to the above for the time from infection to death. Maybe it was around in September and it doubles every 3-5 days in the absence of strong controls.
Point is it didn't appear last week if it's currently 60% of infections in the SE.
Overall, If 300 people a day are dying, and it takes a month to resolve (die or get better) then a month ago 100,000 people caught it and unless the infection rate has changed then around 3m. are currently infected. That's about 5%. The proportion of those that are nCOVID will rise rapidly over the next month and the relative death rates will be clearly evident then if not before.
Choose your own assumptions.
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Apropos of nothing else, a busy few days for the NHS - for me!
Saturday night/Sunday morning, ambulance to local A & E about 3a.m.? First to Kingston, then transferred to St Georges Tooting. Discharged around 4p.m. on Sunday. Minicab home.
Monday morning, Lady Duncan to local medical centre for Covid jab which she was offered on Sunday. Monday afternoon I get a phone call 'would I like a Covid jab? Today? Yes, and yes.
Tuesday (today) text message to say my Covid test taken while at St Georges was negative. This afternoon I am off to Royal Marsden at Sutton for prelims for radiotherapy on a Basal Cell Carcinoma on my face.
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Hope its nothing serious there dunc, and don't let them mix the carcinoma and your nose up.
Just out of interest, where are your Covid Jabs taking place? Round here its Chertsey Hall or the McClaren building in Woking.
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>> Just out of interest, where are your Covid Jabs taking place? Round here its Chertsey
>> Hall or the McClaren building in Woking.
>>
Giggs Hill Green.
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Interesting if inconclusive and somewhat long reads about where the virus might have originated.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-55364445
and some of its links
www.virosin.org/article/doi/10.1007/s12250-016-3713-9
www.pnas.org/content/117/47/29246
www.globaltimes.cn/content/1208404.shtml
It'll be interesting of the investigation comes up with anything. I've never really thought it was a leak from a lab but I can see that it might look likely.
As an aside - I'd take with a pinch of salt the cloak and dagger stuff at the start of the Beeb article.. I was involved with a pirate radio station at school and we met a reporter for the local rag but when it made the front page of the paper that was full of him being "blindfolded and put into the back of a car, driven for many miles" etc.
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>> As an aside - I'd take with a pinch of salt the cloak and dagger
>> stuff at the start of the Beeb article.. I was involved with a pirate radio
>> station at school and we met a reporter for the local rag but when it
>> made the front page of the paper that was full of him being "blindfolded and
>> put into the back of a car, driven for many miles" etc.
That wasnt China. The government of who has all but managed to eradicate Tianamen Square from memory and history in that country.
The China that claims its only had 86000 cases (The place where it started, a Population of 1.5 billion people)
I would think its highly likely it happened as described.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 22 Dec 20 at 09:26
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I used to work with a Chinese girl who swore blind, and really seemed to believe, that Tianamen Square never happened. When shown the footage, which she had never seen before, she just said it was a Hollywood stunt. She was really quite angry that we were trying to lie about her government to her face.
After that we didn't talk politics in the office again, which is probably always for the best anyway. She was an excellent coder.
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The level of thought control in China is really very scary, and they have achieved it by subverting the internet and social media. In pretty short time too.
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>>I would think its highly likely it happened as described.
I don't know that that is particularly a likely scenario, but it's a pretty safe bet that the Chinese have not issued the unvarnished truth about anything.
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I perceive the Chinese government to be almost 100% pragmatic and to give little weight to ethics. If they want the population to hold certain things as being true, or to behave in a certain way, they will find the easiest route to achieving that and do it, and if people don't like it or get hurt in the process, too bad.
I don't assert it to be a national characteristic, just the approach of the current ruling elite. Russia is probably no better morally but less well organised.
Almost makes me thankful for our spivvy, shambolic government.
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>>Almost makes me thankful for our spivvy, shambolic government.
There is a perspective that says their very crappiness and incompetence is what makes them a safe Government to have.
I think it was Billy Connolly who said “The desire to be a politician should bar you for life from ever becoming one”.
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“Amazing how many people are being vaccinated, record numbers. Our Country, and indeed the World, will soon see the great miracle of what the Trump Administration has accomplished. They said it couldn’t be done!!!”
D Trump Twitter today
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>>"Amazing how many people are being vaccinated, record numbers...."
556,000 so far. Or roughly the same as the UK, a much smaller country.
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>> >>"Amazing how many people are being vaccinated, record numbers...."
>>
>> 556,000 so far. Or roughly the same as the UK, a much smaller country.
Ah but we started over a week before them... Much to Trumps annoyance who accused "the swamp" from delaying things just to make HIM look bad.
Last edited by: Zero on Tue 22 Dec 20 at 15:49
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8< snip. Removed at OPs request
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 23 Dec 20 at 02:37
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>> 8< snip. Removed at OPs request
NoFM2R I know you don't care, and most of us probably already know your identity but that dropbox link tells me your name.
Last edited by: VxFan on Wed 23 Dec 20 at 02:37
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Why is he dressed up like Her Maj though?
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...dinner at the Embassy.....
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>> ...dinner at the Embassy.....
>>
Bernard Mannings old club ?
Who’d a thought....
Last edited by: legacylad on Tue 22 Dec 20 at 21:17
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..nah, the only way they'd let him in is dressed as the Queen.
(Otherwise "not him again") ;-)
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>>(Otherwise "not him again") ;-)
I'm encouraged that since our last Ambassador change they've stopped hiding behind the sofa when I knock on the door.
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>> I'm encouraged that since our last Ambassador change they've stopped hiding behind the sofa when I knock on >>the door.
>>
...dressing as her maj is working then....
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Seems to be.
Walking through the streets late at night when I leave is a bit dodgy though.
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>> >>(Otherwise "not him again") ;-)
>>
>> I'm encouraged that since our last Ambassador change they've stopped hiding behind the sofa when
>> I knock on the door.
Thats good, they all rusted away over here. Better than the PPOS tho I guess.
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Nope, you've totally lost me. Not got a clue what you just said.
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>>
>> Thats good, they all rusted away over here. Better than the PPOS tho I guess.
>>
...worked with someone who had one of those (around '83). Regularly got asked to give it a push-start at the end of the working day.
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Had a Princess 1700HL back around 1990 - was a decent enough old barge but nowhere near as good as the Nissan Laurel 2.4SGX that replaced it.
I had some shonky cars as a student...
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>> Why is he dressed up like Her Maj though?
You get offered extra Ferrero Rocher if you enter into the spirit of things.
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Ferrero Rocher?
Yuck. Damn awful things.
Trivia Alert: The house where Nutella was first concocted still stands as a museum piece and chauffeur's rest area in the middle of the management car park at the Ferrero factory in Alba.
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Yes, I must say that I don't particularly like them either, but it's pretty much the first response from any Brit when I have been at the Embassy.
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>> Yes, I must say that I don't particularly like them either, but it's pretty much
>> the first response from any Brit when I have been at the Embassy.
>>
I believe the FO cringe at the association and the jokes. However you know its a good bit advertising when people still quote it years since it was last on tv.
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Lygonos, thank you. I was not really bothered, but then thinking about it last night I suddenly thought that I was being careless, even if I wasn't quite sure that there was a risk, so I bothered Dave into fixing it for me.
I appreciate the heads up.
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>> 8< snip. Removed at OPs request
That was the Queen and "Where do we even ffin Start"?
The Lad has sent me another:
"Not since I cut Diana's brakes have I seen a car crash like 2020"
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I was at a dinner last night and the subject of Boris came up, given that two of the people there work(ed) with/for/near him.
They said that he so dislikes his decisions being criticised, or being proven wrong, that his standard approach is to avoid all decision making until he is forced down a path because there are no longer any alternatives, at which time he can make a strong decision without being criticised for not choosing any other option.
This is apparently behind his approach to most of his lockdown, guidelines, rules and other decisions. They also said it was SOP for him and always has been.
Apparently it is quite vexing (they didn't use the word "vexing"). (come to that, they didn't use the word "quite" either).
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Six dead today at the local hospital from Covid. That's on top of "normal" deaths. Reported as atrocious.
No full PPE on Miss Z's ward - i.e. no FP3 masks, no full body suits.
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My daughter heard today that two ex-colleagues she'd worked with at a secure unit died after contracting Covid, and a third is still on ICU. One was well enough that he'd been sent home and the other was shortly about to come off being ventilated as he was getting better but both had a sudden fatal relapse. Both died of brain haemorrhage.
Stay safe people!!
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>> My daughter heard today that two ex-colleagues she'd worked with at a secure unit died
>> after contracting Covid, and a third is still on ICU. One was well enough that
>> he'd been sent home and the other was shortly about to come off being ventilated
>> as he was getting better but both had a sudden fatal relapse. Both died of
>> brain haemorrhage.
>>
>> Stay safe people!!
>>
That's dreadful news Smokie.
Do you have any details as to age, health, ethnicity (I understand the BAME community is particularly susceptible)?
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Yes, usual suspects really - large to obese, 55+, 1 had diabetes, the other had unknown health problems but neither really seemed ill before it happened. She didn't mention ethnicity.
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And now for the good news:
A social epidemiologist at Yale has predicted that once the pandemic has run it's course and society has had time to recover it will be Party Time!
“In 2024, all of those [pandemic trends] will be reversed,” he said. “People will relentlessly seek out social interactions.” That could include “sexual licentiousness”, liberal spending, and a “reverse of religiosity”.
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/21/epidemiologist-1918-flu-pandemic-roaring-20s-post-covid
Sigh.. if only I were 18 again.
Pass the Phyllosan.
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App pinged up on Saturday with a contact warning and told me I needed to self-isolate for 6 days. Then I got an email from them telling me that it was wrong and that I'm eligible for parole on the 3rd January.
I've had a sore throat and a slight cough for nearly a week now but two PCR tests (one through work, one NHS) have both come back negative so it appears that it's just a cold.
Could just about live with it but I've literally had just four days of normal after a previous "you need to self isolate" message and they were work days. It seems that I go to work, one of the people I work with has Covid, they test positive when they get home and the calls go out.
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@FF
Am I reading this correctly that it's the App that's alerting you rather than a call from a Test/Trace person?
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www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55465079
I would laugh my socks off if the Swiss authorities asked for them to be extradited back, especially as I hear that apparently Andy Wigmore was one of them.
Unfortunately I doubt they will, but still think they should. It's outrageous behaviour.
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Let's hope that at least they get pursued through the courts for damages.
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Though if you’re quarantined in the U.K. it is perfectly legal to leave the location you’re quarantined in to travel back to your home country... as it is in the EU. Are we sure that’s not the case in Switzerland as well?
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>>Are we sure that's not the case in Switzerland as well?
It may be, but a midnight flit probably isn't.
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>> It may be, but a midnight flit probably isn't.
True, but I’m guessing that if booked via one of the ski holiday places then it was all paid up front, and anyway they’ll all have given credit cards when checking in. So midnight flit or early check-out ;)
Last edited by: VxFan on Tue 29 Dec 20 at 03:06
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Fair point. Let's hope so.
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>> www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55465079
>>
>> I would laugh my socks off if the Swiss authorities asked for them to be
>> extradited back, especially as I hear that apparently Andy Wigmore was one of them.
I would laugh my socks off if CV exploded in Switzerland, serves them right for opening all their borders Ski resorts and hotels in the search for customers money.
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Coronavirus - Volume 28 - No FM2R
