>> Do we see this as cause for optimism or just propaganda?
Not a cause for much optimism IMO, if it isn't propaganda then there's still the fact that the Chinese virtually imprisoned a complete city. We can't/won't do that here.
I'm impressed every time I hear Chris Witty. The reason they aren't asking/telling people to self-isolate, closing venues etc now is (a) because while 99%+ are not infected it won't actually prevent much, (b) people will not perceive any value or benefit and will simply not comply after a couple of weeks, by which time the infected will be more numerous.
I watched about an hour of him being quizzed in a committee chaired by Hunt last night. He said we are probably less than 2 weeks away from trying to slow down the spread using such measures, in order to flatten the peak number infected.
Anybody who is not taking this very seriously is making a mistake. What we should actually do is a difficult question.
Whitty thinks this is going to be big numbers, much bigger than the total number of hospital beds (for all purposes) which is 140,000. The numbers will be such that the treatment for the vast majority will be"stay at home and take your chances". When it comes to prioritising active treatment it won't be sickest first, or first come first served, it will be who has the best chance of recovery. Double pneumonia will be what kills people.
We've decided to go to a fundraising quiz in the village hall this weekend. If we catch it, our timing will be fortunate I hope. If not, we'll be thinking about a bit more staying at home for a while after that.
I predicted 48 new UK cases yesterday, based on 15% daily (exponential) growth. There were 54. Fairly easy to do the sums.
Italy has been hospitalising 10%. Their death rate is 5%.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-51811969
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