I agree.
90%+ deaths are in the over 65 and vulnerable groups and create the load on the NHS in admissions, then ICU, and finally deaths.
Approx 25% of the population are in these groups - ~ 15m.
Assuming there are adequate vaccine supplies, and people are vaccinated at a rate of (say) 5m per week, vaccination of these groups should be complete by early April. Add a few weeks on for 2nd jabs takes to the end of April.
Crudely the load on the NHS will fall by ~ 50% by end February, and 90%+ by end April. The next six weeks will be critical in minimising virus spread to avoid overwhelming NHS short term.
By end Feb a progessive relaxation of restrictions should be possible. By April there will be little need to protect the NHS although the virus will still be in circulation. There will be almost zero prospect of retaining covid restrictions - they would likely be ignored and uneforceable.
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