>> Over the next 12-16 weeks the majority of the UK population will have had the
>> virus.
>>
>> For the vast majority it is simply a bad cold - infectivity lasts up to
>> a week, illness itself about 5 days with the dry cough persisting perhaps a couple
>> of weeks further.
>>
>> Once 60-80% of the population have been infected the rate of infections will drop off
>> rapidly as there are less uninfected people for it to jump to.
>>
>> Keeping the "at risk" population away from infection during this peak period is most likely
>> to reduce the death count.
Well I'm going back to being terrified then.
That looks like the "mitigate" or flatten-the-sombrero plan to me, the one where 250,000 die and ICU requirements peak at 8x capacity - I thought we had switched to "suppression" like everybody else, which Vallance hopes will limit deaths to 20,000?
|