>> It is what it is.
>>
>> We're all going to get it until 60-80% have been infected.
Or until there is a vaccine
>>
>> Old and frail stay out of the way or risk death.
Correct.
>> I might be wrong but epidemic suppression only works with a total lockdown for a
>> very long period.
I hope you are wrong but I don't think so. But if everybody gets it in 12-16 weeks as you said then the 250,000 scenario is the relevant one. Vallance's 'suppression' was linked, by him, to c. 20,000.
>> What do you think will happen in Wuhan when they let folks out and Covid
>> is reintroduced by a traveller?
I think it will start again. Successful suppression buys you time, but unless that is long enough to be able to vaccinate (supposing even that a good vaccine can be made) then it's hard to see what the exit plan is. Chuff knows what the Chinese plan is. And that is the new big question, there's no exit plan that we know about (Vallance was asked the question as to what the suppressors (China, Korea I think were referred to) and said he didn't know.
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