I do agree that Boris fired the starting gun a bit too early, but it may not lead to a further major lockdown. Some simple maths:
- assume there are approx 50k infectious people at the moment (7-8k per day)
- assume once infected people remain infectious for 7 days
- with R0 of 2.5 after (say) 4 weeks the 50k would have grown to 1.95m (2.5^4 x 50k)
- with R0 of 1.2 after (say) 4 weeks the 50k will have grown to 104k (1.2^4 x 50k)
I have chosen a 4 week period as the lag in doing something about a modest overshoot of R0 to 1.2. R0 of 2.5 was the unfettered growth rate pre lockdown.
4 weeks reflects the time it may take to identify and initiate some solutions to the problem. With test track and trace if it actually works (unproven at the moment) the action can be better targeted than a general lockdown.
This does rely upon people keeping to the guidelines - particularly with respect to distancing. Or maybe I am unbelievably complacent and optimistic!
|