Total deaths measured by using excess deaths would be 59,100
[ www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries ]
Total infected could be 19,000,000
[ www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/over-25-of-the-uk-likely-to-have-had-covid-19-already/ ]
Giving an IFR of 0.3 compared to a current CFR of 14%.
Both articles are well worth a read.
I think an IFR of <0.5 is entirely likely with 99% of deaths occurring within a group who all have known pre-existing conditions and a certain amount of the remainder occurring in people with unknown pre-existing conditions.
We know that herd immunity, that much loved and fashionable phrase, is the way forward. So, since those between 20 & 60 with no pre-existing conditions are in little or no danger of anything other than an unpleasant time, lock down should be completely relaxed save for the need to keep the NHS below it's capacity. Far from trying to shame those who are out socialising, we should allow lockdown to gradually fall away amongst the non-vulnerable as long as they pay attention to the vulnerabilities of those around them.
If, on the other hand, you have pre-existing conditions then I'd recommend a nylon tent in a clean room for the next three months.
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