Lockdown was necessary as the rate of transmission and the number of people infected had the potential to completely overwhelm the NHS. With cases doubling every 3 days, a delay in lockdown of just a week would have filled the Nightingale hospitals to capacity.
Death rates would have increased markedly - even those who may have benefitted from a few days oxygen may not have been treated.
We now know a lot more about the virus, who is at risk, and how it can be managed.
- public tolerance for extended lockdown is limited
- lockdown is economic suicide
- it affects mainly those with other health problems and the elderly
- it has limited (but still some) impact on the young and healthy
- it will not be "beaten" until there is herd immunity either by vaccine or infection
- as time passes improved medical and drug intervention will probably reduce severity
- when the incidence of infection in the community falls, test track and trace can be effective
- thus far UK progress on TT&T has been less than impressive
The question is "where do we go from here":
- economic activity needs to be restarted asap subject only to effective TT&T
- all to return to work except those who are vulnerable and need shielding
- local and regional re-imposition of lockdown where necessary and for short periods
- slow re-introduction of mass events (sport, theatre etc) carefully monitored
- provision made for those who are vulnerable or need shielding - shopping, leisure etc
Elderly and vulnerable need to make their own assessment of personal risk appetite. For some this may mean remaining in semi or full isolation. For others (including me) it means assessing risks and acting accordingly. Currently this may mean being cautious for the next few months to see what happens to overall infection rates:
- little or no shopping (not my favourite sport anyway) bar DiY, garden centres etc
- avoid restaurants, pubs etc - although pub gardens probably ok
- see family and friends - albeit those who are known low risk anyway
- get outdoors - walking, cycling etc
Perhaps I have been fortunate and have found lockdown no great problem - we have a comfortable house and retired with no money problems. Main problem has been not seeing friends and famiiy + a sense of personal freedoms being constrained.
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