>>We know that herd immunity, that much loved and fashionable phrase, is the way forward.
Vallance said yesterday the SAGE estimate is that 6.7% of us have had it, based on population testing for antibodies although he admits they need to do a few more.
If SAGE is right and if we go for herd immunity, possibly by default if we can't find a cure or a good vaccine, then - let's say we have 50,000 COVID dead now - we could end up with with 50000/6.7*70 deaths, about 522,000. Implied IFR 1.1%. That's not completely out of kilter with the estimates of 0.6%=0.9% that have been speculated on by the professionals.
If Manchester is right, and 28% are infected, then at 70% we could have 50000/28*70 = 125,000. That's roughly your 0.3% IFR.
That's just arithmetic. Could be way off especially if the people who have caught it so far are unrepresentative in any significant way.
99% of deaths just by age puts the cut off at about 45 i.e. 1% 44 or below. 89% are 65 or over. So it's quite possible that something near 99% will have at least one pre-existing chronic condition.
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