Yes, I am feeling a bit negative this morning.
I didn't pluck the number out of the air.
From the Imperial paper 16 March 2020 -
"In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB ... not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality. "
Imperial also said that the mitigation strategy would likely result in ICU demand peaking at 8 x capacity which it is implied would increase that.
Lygonos said "Over the next 12-16 weeks the majority of the UK population will have had the virus."
If that happens many who need ICU care will not get it.
Vallance's lowest estimate of the mortality so far has been 0.6% I think. The percentages used for infection in the 'mitigate' scenario were 60%-80%
Sticking with 60% and 0.6% gives 67.8m x 60% x 0.6% = 244,000 as the lowest estimate for that strategy.
So success is 244,000 dead. Failure is upwards of 510,000.
That's why I'm hoping they will stick with and succeed with suppression, even though there is as yet no exit strategy. At least some treatments might emerge and ICU capacity can be increased.
Vallance said he thought suppression could be done at the cost of 'only' 50,000 deaths but of course it would not be over until lockdown measures were successfully removed.
I was a bit anxious yesterday when they seemed to be fudging on what the strategy actually is. On Monday or Tuesday, I can't remember which, BJ said that over 70's and the vulnerable would be asked to self-isolate from this weekend. That still hasn't appeared in the gov.uk guidance and hasn't been mentioned since.
Am I really overdoing it do you think? I'm actually an optimist - in general I tend to think something will turn up.
Last edited by: Manatee on Thu 19 Mar 20 at 10:47
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